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Erdogan, Turkey's Sheep Molester In Chief, Loses Election Re-Run Gamble Login/Join 
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Dare we hope this means that Erdogan and his party are on the way to being crippled or tossed out? Or are the "Take Turkey Back To The Middle Ages And Give Putin A Hummer While We're At It" crowd even now plotting to get rid of elections in order to stay in power?

quote:

Erdogan's Party Loses Controversial Replay Of Istanbul Election
Fulya Ozerkan, AFP June 23, 2019

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered a major blow on Sunday as the opposition candidate in Istanbul's controversial mayoral election re-run romped to victory.

Ekrem Imamoglu won the first vote in March by a tiny margin of just 13,000 in the city of 15 million. But after being stripped of that victory over controversial claims of fraud, he vowed a "battle for democracy" that turned him into a household name. With more than 99 percent of ballots counted on Sunday night, Imamoglu was winning by more than 775,000 votes - and had 54 percent overall. "It was not a single group or party, but the whole of Istanbul and Turkey that won this election," Imamoglu said in his victory speech. "Mr. President, I am ready to work in harmony with you. I convey from here my request to meet with you in the shortest time possible," he added.

Critics accused Erdogan of refusing to give up control of Istanbul, Turkey's economic powerhouse and a crucial source of patronage for Islamic conservatives since he won the mayorship himself a quarter of a century ago. But Imamoglu, a little known district mayor at the start of the year, galvanised voters with a relentlessly positive campaign under the slogan "Everything will be fine". That was in stark contrast to the usual aggressive name-calling of Turkish politics and struck a chord with voters.

He faced the juggernaut of the AKP, which has ruled Turkey since 2002 and remains the most popular political force nationwide. The AKP's candidate, Binali Yildirim, a mild-mannered Erdogan loyalist who oversaw several huge transport projects and served as prime minister, had already struck a conciliatory tone earlier on Sunday. "If we have wronged, knowingly or unknowingly, one of our fellow Instanbulites or our challengers, if we have done something unjust, I ask for your forgiveness," he said. Conceding defeat later in the day, Yildirim congratulated Imamoglu and wished him good luck.

"It;s a colossal defeat for Yildirim but also Erdogan. His gamble (in calling for a replay of the election) backfired," Berk Esen, assistant professor of international relations at Ankara's Bilkent University, told AFP. It comes as an economic slump and rising prices have dented the president's reputation for economic stewardship, with the AKP also losing the capital Ankara in March. "The AKP elites will probably try to de-emphasise the election and act like it's no big deal," said Esen.

Erdogan has indeed already played down the importance of the re-run, saying last week that the choice of mayor was "only a change in the shop window" since the AKP controls almost two thirds of the city's districts. But it was a bitter loss for AKP voters, with some in tears at the party headquarters on Sunday night. "Let them rejoice while they can, they will see..." vowed retired shopkeeper Mehmet.

Despite recent setbacks, Erdogan and his party remain the most popular force in Turkish politics. For many conservatives, Erdogan remains a hero who has brought prosperity and fiercely defended the country's interests since taking over in 2003.

Sentences compiled into paragraphs for space. Original text at http://www.yahoo.com/news/ista...beats-154900466.html

Yeah, so Erdogan's still got a few cards to play. Three things get me, though.

One, the AKP has been in power for, what, 17 years? Some voters may be willing to try something different.

Two, losses in the city both reverse the process by which the AKP came to power (they had a rural power base and eventually took over the cities before taking over the national government) AND give the opposition the patronage opportunities and public limelight that the AKP needed to eventually bring Erdogan to power nationally. The big difference is that this time around, Erdogan and Co. don't have the Gulenists (particularly in schools and as judges in the court system) to back Erdogan up.

Three, the AKP's feet of clay are showing - if the opposition can win in Ankara and Istanbul (Erdogan's old stomping grounds, incidentally), then opposition candidates are not only going to be emboldened to run but have every reason to campaign more confidently.
 
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I am not well versed in how Turkish politics works.

The S-400, S-500, F35, Sissi approach, Syrian policy, Kurdish policy and seeming realignment under Erdogan seems worrisome.

Is there a prospect, with the election, for a more pluralistic Turkey reemerging?


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Erdogan did the same thing Putin did. Was prime minister when that was the position with power. Then changed the Constitution so that the president has the power, then became president. The citizenry allowed this to happen. It's all well and good to defeat his party in Istanbul, but outside of the city I think his support is still strong.

Given the history of the Turkish republic, most likely scenario in my mind is for the opposition to gain a bit more power and then try another coup. Although after he put down the last one I think he purged most of the upper echelon of the military so maybe not.

Turkey is a good example of what happens when you move away from secular republican principles.
 
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“Losing Istanbul is much more than ceding control of Turkey’s largest city and commercial powerhouse. The mayor’s job was the springboard for Erdogan’s own political career, and if Imamoglu, 49, performs well in the position, then the president may find himself with a future challenger. . . . Defeat in Istanbul, home to about a fifth of Turkey’s 82 million people, also strips Erdogan’s party of a major source of patronage and handouts. By some estimates, the city absorbs a quarter of all public investment and accounts for a third of the country’s $748 billion economy. Istanbul erupted in celebration over the first opposition victory since Erdogan came to power 16 years ago. Major thoroughfares were packed with cars honking their horns, passengers hanging out of windows and waving Turkish flags through sunroofs.”


Link


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Eddogan isn't going away until he's removed by force.
 
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^^^ I'm tempted to believe you, but if there's such a thing as an election majority large enough to make it impossible to steal the election, then I've gotta wonder whether that's true.
 
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Headed to Istanbul in a month, ought to be interesting,



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Posts: 1838 | Registered: April 21, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I'd love to hear from you here when you get back - particularly about how freely people who don't like Erdogan or the AKP will criticize them in public. All of the news stories I run across seem to create the impression that the AKP was slowly cutting off not only access to political control but freedom of action to those who disagree. Maybe it's not entirely that bad, or maybe the AKP doesn't really exercise that degree of control?
 
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Wait, what?
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Perhaps another coup attempt is on the way; you know, so the will of the people will endure.

Turkey needs to be gone from NATO.




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There's more than one kind of transition of power, and we've all seen a coup play all too neatly into the hands of not just Erdogan but Maduro in Venezuela. The Turks may be of the opinion that there's still life left in the ballot box approach.

From today's Wall Street Journal, "Opposition Takes Istanbul In Vote Rerun" by David Gauthier-Villars, pg. A6:

quote:

Mr. Erdogan's presidential mandate spans 2023 and the AKP, together with a nationalist ally, commands a majority in the National Assembly. But the defeat in Istanbul high-lights how popular support for the AKP has dropped steadily as Turkey has been gripped by economic pain since the middle of last year. A long period of breakneck growth, fueled by large amounts of foreign currency debt, came to a shuddering halt, with the country entering recession over the winter. The Turkish lira is down sharply, sparking a surge in inflation.

Resentment is also growing over Mr. Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian style of leadership after a failed coup attempt in 2016, marked by mass purges and sweeping crackdowns against buisnesspeople, journalists and human rights activists.

"The Turkish electorate is distancing itself from the ruling party," said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based think tank Edam. "There is powerful risk for the AKP that they may end up losing their hegemonic role in Turkish politics."

While celebrating Mr. Imamoglu's victory, members of his Republican People's Party, or CHP, cautioned that Mr. Erdogan had a record of canceling the results of elections when he doesn't like the outcome. Mr. Erdogan canceled a legislative vote in 2015 in which the AKP had failed to garner a majority. In recent months, his administration has annulled scores of municipal votes across Turkey, replacing opposition mayors with government-appointed caretakers.

Late Sunday, however, Mr. Erdogan posted a message on his Twitter account in which he congratulated Mr. Imamoglu.

Erdogan's losing financial support abroad, popular support at home, and the battle to keep the economy healthy - particularly at a time when he's at war with the Kurds as well as trying to direct outcomes in the war in Syria (and banging heads with his erstwhile friends, the Russians, in the process).

Erdogan's had the chutzpah to overturn elections and manipulate the courts and the legislature enough to allow extralegal crackdowns on inoffensive Turks.

Now, all of the sudden, he's congratulating a political opponent on taking the top slot in Istanbul and consoling himself and his followers with vague arguments that AKP members in other offices in Istanbul can keep Imamoglu and other non-AKP politicians from doing anything significant.

Maybe Erdogan's right, and playing this right (for him), but some people might be smelling a shift in momentum.
 
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Erdogan's Democrats had the chutzpah to overturn elections and manipulate the courts and the legislature enough to allow extralegal crackdowns on inoffensive Turks Conservative Americans.


Almost.


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Originally posted by RichardC:
quote:
Erdogan's Democrats had the chutzpah to overturn elections and manipulate the courts and the legislature enough to allow extralegal crackdowns on inoffensive Turks Conservative Americans.


Almost.


? I don't get the point. This isn't a thread about American politics.
 
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And now Erdogan seems to be facing challenges from the Turkish Right and from within the AKP itself.

quote:

Former Turkish PM Davutoglu Slams Erdogan's AKP After Istanbul Defeat
Reuters, 6/30/2019

A former Turkish prime minister and close ally of President Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday harshly criticized the ruling AK Party after a stinging electoral defeat in Istanbul last week that was widely seen as ominous for Erdogan at the national level. The AKP last week lost the mayor's post in Turkey's biggest city to the main opposition party for the first time in 25 years by a hefty margin, having forced a re-run following an earlier narrow defeat.

Ahmet Davutoglu, who served as prime minister between 2014 and 2016 before falling out with Erdogan, has criticized the president and his policies before. But his latest comments come as former deputy prime minister Ali Babacan and former president Abdullah Gul, both founding members of the AKP, plan to launch a new rival party this year.

"There used to be a government that realised all of its pledges over time," Davutoglu said at an event in the province of Elazig, adding that those who caused a "slide" in the party's principles should "pay the price". "If we lose an election that first lost by 13,000 votes again by 800,000 votes, as was the case in Istanbul, the one responsible for this is not a prime minister who delivered a clear parliamentary majority (in last year's general election) but rather those who have cause a serious slide in rhetoric, actions, morals and politics."

During the Istanbul campaign, Erdogan accused the opposition of links to terrorism and highlighted a call by Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan, jailed on the island prison of Imrali, for a pro-Kurdish party to remain neutral. Davutoglu was dismissive: "Saying the elections are valid even if (won) by one vote and then changing your stance; talking about a matter of survival in one election and labeling anyone who thinks otherwise a terrorist but then getting in touch with Imrali in the next vote is a detachment from the public conscience."

Voters appeared to be blaming the AKP for a recession that wiped 30% off the lira's value last year and another 10% this year. "We are facing economic problems as we did in 2008. Then, there were people at the helm of the economy who understood economy. There was vision," Davutoglu said. "We cannot get out of this crisis with the mentality of knowing best for everything, belittling, and thinking teamwork is just bringing together your inner circle." Last year, after winning sweeping powers under a new executive presidential system that Davutoglu called "distorted", Erdogan made his son-in-law Berat Albavrak finance minister. "The AKP is not a party of one person, one family or one group alone," Dovutoglu said. "State structure and family ties must be absolutely separated. There must be no first-degree relatives."

Davutoglu had been rumored to be joining the breakaway party. Last week, a source close to him said he was planning a 'new step', but did not plan to join Gul and Babacan for now. Instead, he issued what appeared to be a rallying cry to Erdogan's critics within the AKP. "Today is not a time to be silent. It is not a time to keep the truths we discuss behind closed doors silent in front of the open doors too," he said. "We need a new understanding of politics."

Some compression for space, original text at http://www.yahoo.com/news/form...slams-151015861.html

The nice thing about chaos is that you never know what'll pop up. Oh, and there was one fun additional note in the article - apparently Erdogan's BS about terrorism and the Kurds ain't cuttin' any political ice. It's impossible to say that something good will absolutely happen, but the Scourge Of The Sheep is clearly in trouble.
 
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But is the emerging voice moving toward pluralism or a more regressive Islamic state?


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Erdogan, at the beginning , was seen as, perhaps, wanting to be the Caliph ruler of a restored Ottoman empire, exercising control over all the middle east. LINK

Yet, just a few days ago, President Trump spoke well of him and hoped to have a continuing partnership.

Could it be that Erdogan is the most pro-western of the lot in Turkey?

I'm so glad the United States is not trying to affect their elections - what with all our
principles and all. Roll Eyes


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Could it be that Erdogan is the most pro-western of the lot in Turkey?




I guess one could argue that he’s the most pro-western guy he hasn’t jailed on trumped up charges.
 
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Don't get me wrong. I don't like Erdogan but maybe President Trump knows more than we do about what is going on.

Is it that we could wind up with worse for our bases and interests?

I don't know and was wondering if anyone else did.


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Originally posted by P210:
I guess one could argue that he’s the most pro-western guy he hasn’t jailed on trumped up charges.

One could also argue that the more hamstrung and under threat he is, the more pro-western he's likely to be. He knows perfectly well that he's more likely to come out ahead by cutting a deal with the West than he would be by cutting a deal with the Russians. He also knows by now that cutting deals with the Russians hasn't given him any effective leverage in negotiations with the West, and who in the hell wants to be locked away in a geopolitical space where he only has Putin for company?
 
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space where he only has Putin for company


Turkey & Spain are where the Russian wealthy park their money.


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Originally posted by Anush:
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space where he only has Putin for company


Turkey & Spain are where the Russian wealthy park their money.


Why park cash in Turkey considering the Turkish Lira’s record for losing value? Many Turks find that stashing dollars in the proverbial mattress beats putting lira in the bank.
 
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