I miss him too. I wish I knew what books he recommended to read for investing

Re: JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by sigalert:
But he’d say it in a way that would be eminently quotable. I miss him.

We all do

This necro thread needs to be dated.

There will always be another 'crash' impending. And there will always be another 'bull market' impending.

Same stuff, different quarter.

The funniest reads in the library, outside of purpose-written humor, are 2-5-10 year old back issues of the financial magazines. After you read all the breathless prose by credentialed experts in respectable sources, who were 100% convincing in their analysis and, despite that, 100% wrong in their predictions, you don't take that stuff seriously anymore.

Not saying all of them were wrong...the point is all of them were convincing and very, very few were proven out by events as they happened.

And, I miss JALLEN too.

quote:

Originally posted by 1flynDO:
I miss him too. I wish I knew what books he recommended to read for investing

I seem to remember him recommending a little green book. Other members probably remember. I actually took note. I’ll dig around.

“The Intelligent Investor” Benjamin Graham.

Edit. Just bought it. It was on my list. Thanks JAllen!

I had a conversation with my financial advisor yesterday on a different topic and this came up. He works for one of the larger investment management firms in the country and so far his advice has been spot on.

I attended a dinner/lecture that he did with guest speakers just before Easter and the same message was conveyed.

He, his higher ups, and other managers he collaborates with believe that the Fed may raise rates another 1/4% in the next few weeks, and that will be it. The big question at the moment is will they or won't they. He also let me know that some new information has come about regarding them lowering rates by Q4 so that throws even more uncertainty into the will they/won't they short term move.

I think we can all agree the best thing for this country is to freeze rates and get gas prices under control.

Aside from "The Intelligent Investor" I just finished Peter Lynch's "One Up on Wall Street".

Very good read that also isn't going to become obsolete as long as there is still a stock market. Much easier to get through as well.

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

I think we can all agree the best thing for this country is to freeze rates and get gas prices under control.

I don't agree with that. I believe inflation needs to get under control and it has been persistently stubborn and may require a few more raises in rates and that may last for a quite while plus I don't see rates going nowhere down as low as they had been which largely caused this whole mess. Historically even now rates are not that high. As far as energy prices there are just too many external influences to deal with to "get that under control" with Russia, the Saudis, the insane green progressives in power, etc. The HUGE wildcard is our proxy war with Russia and how long that is going to go on for and how much is it going to cost. The other HUGE problem is that almost no one in Washington wants to reign in spending and insane printing of more money while the national debt is a fast growing $32 trillion destructive financial freight train.

The FED will do a .25 increase. Depending on your definition of a 'Crash' yes, it's going to get bumpy late this year. If you have a short term investment horizon, might be a good time to head toward cash.

The Government needs to control and reduce inflation. It's not going to be pretty in order to do it and won't happen in 2023.

Watch the Employment data. As more folks lose jobs, their spending will reduce. That will trigger a more impactful Recession. So far, we've had mild unemployment levels. If I see unemployment at 4% and inching higher I probably unload some of my Oil and Refinery equities and take those profits.

I don't think most people equate the economy with the Government. Most think that economy is fair or poor, but, Biden's approval ratings don't reflect it. Neither did the mid term vote

He’s at 39% approval.

I don’t think it’s inflation. I think it’s real cost increase.

Going back to a cheap energy policy would help. Dramatically slashing government would help, as it would lower regulatory costs and free up the government work force for the private sector, but between the boomer retirement and the drug-induced destruction of…. 20% or so of the younger workers, we’ve had a real loss of productivity.

Working with many young people, now, is like working with the mildly mentally ill.

^^^ The stuff President Trump was doing!

quote:

Originally posted by 1flynDO:
I miss him too. I wish I knew what books he recommended to read for investing

Here's JALLEN's advice on books on investing, quoted from this 2017 thread.

quote:

Depending on your level and background, I would start with the Little Book of Value Investing by Christopher Browne.

If that gets you started, move on to The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham. The current editions are Grahams with updating by Jason Zweig.

If you want to turn pro, dive into Securities Analysis by Graham and Dodd, the bible. It's heavy, though, and not for rookies.

Stay away from trading schemes, get rich quick, other than for amusement.

Watch a couple dozen episodes of American Greed for get a feel for how you can be cheated and what to watch out for.

Also very much worth reading... A Classic


"Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises" by Charles P. Kindleberger

quote:

Originally posted by grumpy1:

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

I think we can all agree the best thing for this country is to freeze rates and get gas prices under control.

I don't agree with that. I believe inflation needs to get under control and it has been persistently stubborn and may require a few more raises in rates and that may last for a quite while plus I don't see rates going nowhere down as low as they had been which largely caused this whole mess. Historically even now rates are not that high. As far as energy prices there are just too many external influences to deal with to "get that under control" with Russia, the Saudis, the insane green progressives in power, etc. The HUGE wildcard is our proxy war with Russia and how long that is going to go on for and how much is it going to cost. The other HUGE problem is that almost no one in Washington wants to reign in spending and insane printing of more money while the national debt is a fast growing $32 trillion destructive financial freight train.

The question is are we optimizing by minimizing short term pain or optimizing for long term health. It seems to me that the best thing for long term health (which will probably never happen) would be for the government to stop printing money to buy votes, spend less than they take in in revenue, and begin to pay down debt. I can’t imagine any politician having the stones to do that, but if they did, it would likely be ugly in the short term. Instead, they’ll keep printing until we are no longer the world reserve currency and we’re unable to export inflation to other countries. It will be interesting to see how it plays out when that time comes.

ETA: The Fed is in a bit of an interesting box. They created the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank by raising rates thus lowering the value of SVB’s treasury bonds, which when marked to market caused SVB to be insolvent. (Not saying SVB weren’t idiots borrowing short [deposits] and lending long [treasuries], they were idiots.) Take a good look at the Fed’s balance sheet and try to explain how they are not *more* insolvent than SVB if you mark their bond holdings to market. Understand that raising rates makes them more insolvent. Consider the Federal government which spends all its income on mandatory entitlements and interest on the debt and has to borrow money to pay the first private in the army or turn on the first light in the White House. What do you think an increasing interest rate does to the Federal government?

Yep due to massive national debt the government (us taxpayers essentially) is in a hell of a dilemma in that ongoing inflation will cost it dearly with more and more borrowing/printing of money because retiring debt and new debt will have to be financed at much higher rates plus all the built in increases for social security recipients, federal workers, and such. Just look at the last massive raise in SS benefits which was close to 10 percent I believe that was more than the last several years combined. We are in a real pickle and it is not going to end well but know one knows for sure when that will be or how bad it will be but IMHO it is not that far off especially considering the warnings about how SS and Medicare are heading for financial disaster with lack of funding. Sadly no one is accountable for any of this which will only end in the blame game and "we have the plan to save you". The old create a crisis to be the savior of the crisis. One only needs to look to France to see how the public will react to a more drastic type of SS or welfare benefits reform.

quote:

massive national debt the government

...can the 'femptodollar' be far behind?

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:

The question is are we optimizing by minimizing short term pain or optimizing for long term health. It seems to me that the best thing for long term health (which will probably never happen) would be for the government to stop printing money to buy votes, spend less than they take in in revenue, and begin to pay down debt. I can’t imagine any politician having the stones to do that, but if they did, it would likely be ugly in the short term. Instead, they’ll keep printing until we are no longer the world reserve currency and we’re unable to export inflation to other countries. It will be interesting to see how it plays out when that time comes.

Ross Perot garnered a lot of support when he ran for President because he strongly advocated for real fiscal changes such as yours. The swamp and the mass media burned him though.

This throws a wild card into the mix that can not be discounted. And we all know the Democrats are going to double down on their failed policies.



Is there a worldwide run on the Bank of the United States of America?

https://thehill.com/opinion/wh...d-states-of-america/


In talking this week with a friend about the United States seemingly imploding from within across multiple sectors, my friend stressed: “It’s not just from within. There is a run on the United States from certain nations and business interests around the world. Just like there was a run on banks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, many nations are either thinking about — or actually proceeding with — transferring at least a portion of their allegiance, assets and commitments from the ‘Bank of the U.S.’ to the ‘Bank of China’ or elsewhere.”

This was not just some person sitting on a porch casually talking about current events while whittling a stick waiting for his Social Security or pension check to hit the mailbox. This was a former high-level U.S. government official, now a CEO, someone who sits on the boards of directors for multiple companies. He has massive real-world and business experience and believes the United State may be on the verge of collapse.

He is far from the only one to think that.

Some fear the Biden administration is losing control of our southern border; losing control of our decaying, crime-infested big cities; creating a recession; vilifying and needlessly destroying the fossil fuel industry while pushing suspect and subsidized “green” energy alternatives; leaving tens of billions of dollars in military equipment in Afghanistan while withdrawing our troops and abandoning an ally; stepping closer to a trip-wire in the Ukraine war, which could trigger a nuclear strike; turning on Israel over ideological issues as Turkey and others call on Arab and Muslim nations to unite and crush the Jewish State; weakening our military with one “woke” edict after another; focusing on “trans” issues at the expense of failing transportation infrastructure; cheerleading the social justice warrior takeover of our colleges and universities; and weakening the dollar (the currency much of the world depends upon).

Is it any wonder, then, that nations such as France, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Mexico, Brazil and others are suddenly hedging their bets by looking beyond the United States of America for partnerships and stability?

On top of those problems, our allies and certain foreign corporations now have the legitimate concern of wondering what between them and the United States will be kept private and secure, in light of the massive and reportedly deliberate leak of classified Pentagon documents.

Who is an ally or foreign business partner to trust? More importantly, in the eyes of some of these nations and foreign business interests, who will prove to be the more stable and dependable partner in the coming years and decades?

In an example of a world leader hedging his bets, French President Emmanuel Macron recently traveled to Beijing to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping. Macron did not travel alone. He brought along Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. Some saw this as Macron advertising that much of the European Union was with him in spirit as he met with Xi.

On his way back to France after the meeting, Macron emphasized that Europeans should not be “just America’s followers” and “get caught up in crises that are not ours.” Even though the French leader seemed to be spelling it out in 100-font, one could read between the lines and assume he meant not getting dragged too deeply into the Ukraine war or defending Taiwan, should China invade. The last part was music to the ears of China’s strongman, Xi.

Next, we have Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador openly criticizing — and challenging — the leadership of the United States for months, by calling the U.S. an “oligarchy, not a real democracy.” He threatened to sabotage calls for U.S. military action against Mexican cartels, and has made it clear that he is not afraid to pick a fight with what he may see as a United States in decline.

Or, last month’s news that Saudi Arabia was inching closer to joining a China-led Asian security and economic bloc, after having been granted the status of a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Aside from China and Russia, the bloc also includes India, Pakistan and some ex-Soviet states. It’s an organization one might view as not always having the best interests of the United States in mind.

As Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst and writer, made clear during an interview: “The traditional monogamous relationship with the US is now over. And we have gone into a more open relationship, strong with the U.S. but equally strong with China, India, [the] UK, France and others.”

Finally, we have Brazil — China’s most important trading partner in South America — announcing a new agreement to conduct bilateral commerce in their respective currencies, rather than the U.S. dollar. The move not only shocked many in the U.S. government but opened the eyes of others around the world to the possibility of decoupling from the dollar.

Some believe these things are happening because a growing number of political and business leaders around the world now lack confidence in the United States, believing our country truly is in disarray, decline and increasingly polarized and politicized. Will such concerns accelerate a “run on the Bank of the United States” with assets being transferred to China or even Russia?

Only time will tell. But as with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the signs are out there, should the analysts care to pay attention.

Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.