My stocks are up $175,000 year to date, in just 7.5 months.

The financials make zero sense to me. None.

The market is booming. Some artificial forces at work. Got to be. It makes ZERO sense to me.

There has to be a correction on the horizon. Or worse. Right?

You are correct. Trees do not grow to the sky. Predicting the stock market is impossible. Good luck.

This is a long conversation with no quick answer but a massive pull back is not on the horizon per most experts but could have some turbulence.
So you got a theory?

According to some people smarter than I, market crash predicted due to hedgefunds and their having to pay up for synthetic stocks they have sold into the market.

Here's some interesting reading, if you find yourself bored:

https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/

quote:

Originally posted by L90814:
According to some people smarter than I...

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

exit the market at your peril. (in whatever equity exposure is appropriate for you)

money for govs and corps is practically free and interest rates aren't going up significantly in the near term.

we are not going back into lock down mode despite the rising spike in covid cases in some areas. corporate profits will continue to rise.

the only thing that concerns me is a black swan type event -- like AFG or an event with China / Taiwan, etc. even then I'd buy the dip.

------------------------------

It's not going to crash, but there will be a correction before too much longer.

One thing you need to know is that the market is largely emotional and not logical. That's why you can't understand it, you don't think emotionally.

I wouldn't pull out if I were you, and I am. I've also done amazingly well this year. Bought a new Bronco Sport for cash with what I made in the first 4 months of 2021. Then made all that back again 3 months later.

The barriers to entry are so high, that there is a scarcity of opportunities.

Which leads to absurd P/E ratios, over-valuation of private capital, etc.

I've done well w. my stocks, not w. my PM ETFs, at least, in the last couple months.

But, I might bounce into the PMs more. (I just play w. stocks. My real investments are in land/my company.)

The number new highs/new lows works for me. I use to chart them longhand in the 80's and 90's using the 19 day EMA and 39 day EMA. I was out of the market two weeks before the 87 crash.

I learned about the McClellan Oscillator, etc while working in CA in the early 70's. Tom has taken over since his parents passed away.

https://www.mcoscillator.com/

At the time in the early 70's, a lot of work was being done in technical analysis by a number of people.

Here is an overview of the happenings:

https://www.mcoscillator.com/l...nicians_association/

quote:

Originally posted by L90814:
According to some people smarter than I, market crash predicted due to hedgefunds and their having to pay up for synthetic stocks they have sold into the market.

Here's some interesting reading, if you find yourself bored:

https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/

I see a lot investors making reference to reddit.com. I wouldn't waste my time on that board.

Why are the stock and real estate markets up so much?



All that money has to find a home somewhere.

Guess that 175k may buy you a loaf of bread in a year or so.

Alternatively that 175k may be the price of bread in a year or so.

No matter the direction, with our current leadership in government, it won’t be good for anyone but the elites.

There is no way the dickheads in charge up in DC are going to let that happen, at least not until 2025

The return on my investments with my advisor are nearly 28% over the last 18 months. It’s just not sustainable over the long run. He and I both are expecting a correction but when and how drastic are anyone’s guess. I keep maxing out my IRA contributions and I’m not getting out of the market. I’m 49 so barring a decades long recession/depression, it should bounce back before I retire (assuming I don’t punch out first). If it becomes a Venezuela situation then I would’ve been screwed regardless. *shrug* Fuck it.

I think part of the issue is that people get into 401k’s and just keep pumping money into it forever. This seems to have a more stabilizing force than years ago when most people didn’t start investing until much later in life.

70% of the millionaires in the U.S. have never had a household income over 100k. What that means is people start pouring money into their 401k’s early on and by the time they retire they are millionaires.

Fat pigs get slaughtered. It's always been that way. If you have made significant gains - take some defensive positions. Do it gradually. I got smoke checked in 01 and then again in the 07-08 debacle. (40% both times)

I am not saying get out completely - just hedge your exposure and review it every 3-4 months.

I have been expecting a correction for a few years. I have lost ten's of thousands, but I sleep pretty well at night

I still feel that way. It is feeling more like a crash is coming vs a correction though. Ymmv

“Predictions are hard. Especially of the future.”
—Yogi Berra

Timing the market and picking "winner" stocks are losing propositions. If it was possible then all those guys that make their money telling you what to do would be rich and wouldn't need a day job. If you have enough capital on hand to actually move the market then the rules do change, but that still doesn't guaranty anything.

Jumping in and out of the market based on predictions about the future kills returns in most cases.

Proper asset allocation and a long term view is key.

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
Timing the market and picking "winner" stocks are losing propositions. If it was possible then all those guys that make their money telling you what to do would be rich and wouldn't need a day job. If you have enough capital on hand to actually move the market then the rules do change, but that still doesn't guaranty anything.

Jumping in and out of the market based on predictions about the future kills returns in most cases.

Proper asset allocation and a long term view is key.

I could not agree more. Sitting on the sidelines constantly thinking it’s going to implode will cost you a fortune.