I'd hold off until the impending Real Estate market crash occurs. Your investment dollar will go a lot further then...

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:
I'd hold off until the impending Real Estate market crash occurs. Your investment dollar will go a lot further then...

Well, there is that… Lol

I’m loving this crash so far. Wife is a realtor. It’s her most lucrative year to date and this fall has been busy as hell. She’s crazy busy right now in December. Usually she has nothing happening in December. There may be a slowdown coming. Maybe prices won’t rise as fast. But a crash? Nope.

Farm land in Iowa seems to be going from 14K to 20K an acre depending on a common formula used to predict growing potential. That's currently an all time high price.

Raw land is appealing. Find some timber land with hills and a creek/pond could have low taxes using farm/non-farm classifications. As metro areas grow, it could gain in value. One could also sell rights to harvest mature trees, camp, etc.

Thanks guys for posting your thoughts. Most read the op and responding accordingly.

Then we have the deep divers

A few further details on my thoughts.

No commercial or rental properties. No Reit or property funds either. Not looking for metro or even suburban properties. Rural, very rural and possibly acreage. Even remote off grid tracs.
Maybe coastal property (not water front) as well. In this budget range most likely just land, possible an old cabin, cottage or shed. Depending on location?

I agree with beancounter on rural AZ. That would seem like an area that would appreciate in value over time.

OKCGene's last paragraph nailed it to a great degree. Bryan11 too.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
I’m loving this crash so far. Wife is a realtor. It’s her most lucrative year to date and this fall has been busy as hell. She’s crazy busy right now in December. Usually she has nothing happening in December. There may be a slowdown coming. Maybe prices won’t rise as fast. But a crash? Nope.

Real Estate prices have DOUBLED most everywhere in just two years...If you actually believe they're staying anywhere near the current level(s), you're either kidding yourself, allowing greed to taint your logical beliefs, or you're naive!

Jumped back in to say, use the 100k to pay off your house if you haven’t already

While not quite double … our 2020 purchase is not far off… more like ~40% here. In 2.7 yrs.

And the only consequences I now have to pay higher taxes on property that will never go down.

There is no way that the current market price on my home will persist in the next few years. (What I paid for it was ridiculously high. )

Can people profit in a declining economy? Yes, happens all the time. They simply ignores the costs.

Maybe a search for a vacation type property outside the US would be an OK idea?

Might be nice to have somewhere to go if you ever OD on phukitol and want to take a break.

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
I’m loving this crash so far. Wife is a realtor. It’s her most lucrative year to date and this fall has been busy as hell. She’s crazy busy right now in December. Usually she has nothing happening in December. There may be a slowdown coming. Maybe prices won’t rise as fast. But a crash? Nope.

Real Estate prices have DOUBLED most everywhere in just two years...If you actually believe they're staying anywhere near the current level(s), you're either kidding yourself, allowing greed to taint your logical beliefs, or you're naive!

Prices have not doubled. That’s an exaggerated statement. Not to derail the thread but what indicators do you see causing a crash? I’m not exactly sure what my greed has to do with it. Kind of a bizarre statement.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:

Prices have not doubled. That’s an exaggerated statement. Not to derail the thread but what indicators do you see causing a crash? I’m not exactly sure what my greed has to do with it. Kind of a bizarre statement.

I think a lot of us have the perspective that an inflationary recession is clearly on its way…

How do housing prices and sales persist in that environment? I already lived through the 1980s with interest rates on homes double digits.


USA economy just went through an inversion w the 2 and 10 yr. Super accurate predictor of such things.

In my younger days, I did landscaping for a living. Many owners fell into wealth by acquiring a plot of land on the fringes of a metropolitan area (far suburbs) and using it to grow nursery stock. As urban sprawl continued, they had a ready market for their plants with the home builders and developers even to include developing it into a garden center that new home owners would patronize. When the suburbs reached their land, they sold it to a developer for many times what they paid. This may not work so well in larger cities any more, but I suspect it is worth a shot in smaller ones, especially those that are located in desirable places. One key to success is being willing and able to do the work of managing the nursery stock yourself, and double if you can sell planting services to go along with the plants.

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:
Jumped back in to say, use the 100k to pay off your house if you haven’t already

Maybe. If he has one of those very low interest fixed interest loans from a few years back, then I'd hold on tight to that loan.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
I’m loving this crash so far. Wife is a realtor. It’s her most lucrative year to date and this fall has been busy as hell. She’s crazy busy right now in December. Usually she has nothing happening in December. There may be a slowdown coming. Maybe prices won’t rise as fast. But a crash? Nope.

Real Estate prices have DOUBLED most everywhere in just two years...If you actually believe they're staying anywhere near the current level(s), you're either kidding yourself, allowing greed to taint your logical beliefs, or you're naive!

Prices have not doubled. That’s an exaggerated statement. Not to derail the thread but what indicators do you see causing a crash? I’m not exactly sure what my greed has to do with it. Kind of a bizarre statement.

NOT an Exaggerated statement...Prices in my neighborhood have ABSOLUTELY Doubled. My Father's Estate owns multiple properties in FL, most of which we're going to sell. The selling prices in those neighborhood's have ABSOLUTELY Doubled. I've been considering moving north in NH, as my son graduated HS and I'd like to reduce my tax bill due to no longer needing to be tied to a town with VERY high school taxes. Everywhere I've considered, the home prices have ABSOLUTELY Doubled. All of this in the last 2.5 years! Maybe not everywhere in the US, but everywhere I've cared to look, so in my experience, it's everywhere.

Greed, because those in the industry benefiting from those real estate transactions in part drive the trend. Those that see the value of their home having nearly doubled, if not absolutely doubled, look to sell/upgrade to take advantage of the current market...So yeah, Greed!

The increase in real estate market/values is, to use a word, UNPRECEDENTED...And it's NOT sustainable! What goes up, especially what goes WAY Up, must come down! It's happened before, and VERY likely (almost certain?) to happen again. Increased mortgage rates have already cooled the market and the recession that nobody in gov't, media, or the financial industry is willing to admit even exists, will certainly be undeniable in 2023.

IMO, now is NOT the time to invest in Real Estate, other than for use as a primary residence. And even then there's plenty of uncertainty in the markets/economy to justify sitting tight until the future is more clear.

^^^^^^^

I have not seen prices double anywhere. I've seen more houses that are priced lower selling and higher end homes taking longer. But that doesn't mean prices have doubled. I look at Florida real estate all the time, since I plan to retire there in 6 years. My house here in MA was bought for close to 600K in 2019. It's worth close to 600 now. Houses in Florida we look at are the same regarding increases. That's a big increase but certainly not double.

But, damn, you think I'm greedy because my wife is a realtor and makes money selling houses? You think my perspective is tainted because I just want so badly that the housing market doesn't crash? Ridiculous. I couldn't give a shit what prices do. My wife will do great in any market. As in 2008, the realtors that don't survive are the part timers. Those that don't rely on the job. No matter how bad the market, people buy and sell.

Real estate over the long term, with the exception of the 2008 bubble, have always made money. What goes up doesn't always come down. Even in 2008, there was a quick recovery in prices after the crash.

Anyhow, never seen a bad time to invest in real estate except for the 2008 bubble and even then you only had to wait a couple years to make out.

quote:

But, damn, you think I'm greedy because my wife is a realtor and makes money selling houses

^^^^^^^^^^
Not me. Some folks just have issues with others success.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
Anyhow, never seen a bad time to invest in real estate except for right before the 2008 bubble and even then you only had to wait a couple years to make out.

FIFY

Just so we're clear, I didn't you, or your wife were greedy. I said that if you think that pricing is staying near current levels, you're allowing greed to taint your logical beliefs. Regardless, the market has been driven to the unprecedented price levels in a very short time, and IMO, largely by greed.

ok guys.

Seriously did look at the UP. There were some awesome deer camps up there. According to Yoopersig the skeeters are bad all summer. Which I did not like. A bit too far east for me too. But some awesome large tracts there for good prices I thought.

Would like to be in the Western 1/3 of the US.Possibly the Western half.

quote:

Originally posted by apprentice:
Maybe a search for a vacation type property outside the US would be an OK idea?

Might be nice to have somewhere to go if you ever OD on phukitol and want to take a break.

Stay in the US.

There are a lot of pitfalls buying and selling property outside the US. First is the prospective country's laws on foreign ownership of property, a lot of them can be tricky. Currency exchange rates can be fun as well. It's why we made money in Candadian $ on the sale of our the lot on Saint Joseph Island in Canada, but lost money in USD. Money was withheld on the sale, sent to the Canadian Government, we've filed the appropriate tax paperwork, and are still waiting for the refund 8 months later.

Prices have to come down before I start looking again. If I were looking, it would be for a lakefront lot on a nice lake for fishing or a hunting property. I'd be looking a half a days drive time away, because getting there and back is not half the fun. It's the reason we sold 140 acres in Northern Michigan and 55 acres in Eastern Tennessee. They were just to hard to get to in a reasonable amount of time.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
I have not seen prices double anywhere.

Then you ain't looking real hard.

Around here they have more than doubled. <$100K places a couple years ago have been going for $300+ in a matter of days.

I had a young couple from WA drive up to my house about a year and a half ago. They offered me twice what I paid for it, without even looking it over. I could easily have listed it, and sold it, in the past year for three times what I paid for it. Two local real estate agents suggested I do just that.

Mighty tempting until you realize you need a place to live and everything for sale is what you just made on profit...or more.