SIGforum
US soldier charged with using classified intel to win $400K Polymarket bet

This topic can be found at:
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/8560014025

April 24, 2026, 12:34 PM
honestlou
US soldier charged with using classified intel to win $400K Polymarket bet
“ A U.S. special forces soldier involved in the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been charged with using classified information about the mission to win more than $400,000 in an online betting market, federal officials announced Thursday.”

Link to full story:

https://apnews.com/article/sol...104127948896fdfb59d9

I think legalized gambling in general has been a drag on the economy and our country’s welfare. But this is really getting out of hand now that you can wager on damn near anything at any time.
April 24, 2026, 12:49 PM
tatortodd
If he was a Congressional Critter instead of SOF then his bet would be a routine Friday



Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
April 24, 2026, 01:03 PM
229DAK
quote:
Originally posted by tatortodd:
If he was a Congressional Critter instead of SOF then his bet would be a routine Friday
So, insider information, huh? Roll Eyes
quote:
Polymarket...said it had found someone trading on classified government information
I wonder how Polymarket determined it was, specifically, classified information?


_________________________________________________________________________
“A man’s treatment of a dog is no indication of the man’s nature, but his treatment of a cat is. It is the crucial test. None but the humane treat a cat well.”
-- Mark Twain, 1902
April 24, 2026, 03:45 PM
parabellum
If it were up to me, I'd criminalize all gambling- all of it. Vegas and the Indian casinos, too. No lottery tickets, no sports betting, nothing.

But, Para, people will still gamble. Yes, they will, but the bet being discussed in this thread would not have been possible.

All of it. Nothing good comes from gambling, and what did I hear not too long ago, but that young people now have a huge gambling problem. Ridiculous.

Get rid of all of it. Oh, Para, people will be out of work. Yeah, get some other kind of job. I don't care.
April 24, 2026, 04:01 PM
sigfreund
quote:
Originally posted by 229DAK:
I wonder how Polymarket determined it was, specifically, classified information?

I’d have to reread the articles more closely, but I got the impression that Polymarket was alerted by how the bets were made and then how accurate they turned out to be. That would have indicated that insider knowledge was being used illegally, and then they reported it to DoJ. Once that investigation started someone else would have determined who the bettor was and what information he would have had.

Or maybe not, but it seems likely.




6.0/94.0

“I can’t give you brains, but I can give you a diploma.”
— The Wizard of Oz
April 24, 2026, 04:13 PM
229DAK
quote:
Nothing good comes from gambling
Amen.

Politicians and the builders who stuff their pockets are trying to build a casino where I live in Northern Virginia. No one here wants it - locals, town council, restaurant owners, board of supervisors. Local government does not want it. But politicians way out yonder want it, so long as it's not in their district. They have even colluded with the local teachers union to get their buy-in. Look teachers union...schools won't get shit. The politicians lie. Families lose. Lives are ruined. Yes...ban gambling. All of it. The casinos always win; gamblers don't.


_________________________________________________________________________
“A man’s treatment of a dog is no indication of the man’s nature, but his treatment of a cat is. It is the crucial test. None but the humane treat a cat well.”
-- Mark Twain, 1902
April 24, 2026, 05:17 PM
fischtown7
Trump Jr. is an advisor with Kalshi and a minority share holder of Polymarket thru a venture capitol fund. The Trump organization is even working on its own prediction market called Truth Predict.

I have always watched the shareholders and politicians and invested accordingly, just waiting for Polymarket to go public and have an IPO.

Personally, I don't gamble except the occasional lotto ticket or slot machine at the casino.

Para is right about the huge problem with young people and sports gambling, a lot of the decline in cryptocurrency was it being sold so that bets could be placed on prediction markets.
April 24, 2026, 06:02 PM
CPD SIG
quote:
Originally posted by tatortodd:
If he was a Congressional Critter instead of SOF then his bet would be a routine Friday


Exactly!
Pelozi’s husband (including the lump on his head from a hammer) is still roaming free…


______________________________________________________________________
"When its time to shoot, shoot. Dont talk!"

“What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.” —Author Tom Clancy
April 24, 2026, 06:09 PM
cajunmuscle
quote:
Originally posted by 229DAK:
quote:
Originally posted by tatortodd:
If he was a Congressional Critter instead of SOF then his bet would be a routine Friday
So, insider information, huh? Roll Eyes
quote:
Polymarket...said it had found someone trading on classified government information
I wonder how Polymarket determined it was, specifically, classified information?


Probably because he’s the only dude who hit… and hit HUGE. Theres also an easy pattern to see with bets, ask any pit boss. It is hypocritical though with these scumbags in DC with their insider trading.
April 24, 2026, 06:16 PM
slosig
Pretty entrepreneurial, but not very smart, nor displaying much integrity. Oh well, I bet he’ll have time to consider his mistakes…
April 24, 2026, 06:28 PM
vthoky
quote:
Originally posted by 229DAK:
even colluded with the local teachers union to get their buy-in. Look teachers union...schools won't get shit. The politicians lie. Families lose.


Didn’t Virginia get its lottery program years ago on the premise of funding the schools with the proceeds? I could be wrong, but I think that’s the way it went down.

If so, it makes me even more angry that our locality just spent a hundred million dollars to rehab a single local school. Why should our taxes be increased to pay for this, when that’s what we were told the lotto money would go for?

Grrr.




Politicians seem to have forgotten that they work for us, not the other way around.
— — — — — — — — — — — —
God bless America.
April 24, 2026, 06:46 PM
Gustofer
quote:
Originally posted by vthoky:
Didn’t Virginia get its lottery program years ago on the premise of funding the schools with the proceeds?

I don't know of any state that didn't use that excuse to get their lottos. We certainly did.

Yet, every single election they are begging for increased mill levies for the schools. When they fail, they just put it up again next election. Rinse and repeat.


________________________________________________________
It is long past time for a Convention of States. The Founding Fathers gave us this tool to fix an out of control government and we need to use it.
April 24, 2026, 06:58 PM
tatortodd
quote:
Originally posted by 229DAK:
quote:
Originally posted by tatortodd:
If he was a Congressional Critter instead of SOF then his bet would be a routine Friday
So, insider information, huh? Roll Eyes
Roll your eyes all you want. A congressional critter and a soldier take essentially the same oath to defend the Constitution (i.e. the primary difference is soldiers includes following president's and officer's orders). However, one is allowed to insider trade year after year, and the other is prosecuted. I didn't say insider trading is right, but instead merely pointed out the ridiculousness of an exempt class of people.



Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
April 24, 2026, 07:58 PM
cajunmuscle
quote:
Originally posted by tatortodd:
quote:
Originally posted by 229DAK:
quote:
Originally posted by tatortodd:
If he was a Congressional Critter instead of SOF then his bet would be a routine Friday
So, insider information, huh? Roll Eyes
Roll your eyes all you want. A congressional critter and a soldier take essentially the same oath to defend the Constitution (i.e. the primary difference is soldiers includes following president's and officer's orders). However, one is allowed to insider trade year after year, and the other is prosecuted. I didn't say insider trading is right, but instead merely pointed out the ridiculousness of an exempt class of people.


Agree in the double standard hypocrisy. Having said that it’s still wrong. As a CAG guy he knew it was big time and OPSEC violation on one end and treasonous on the other. His large bet / win and subsequent timing set off all the alarm bells. My fellow pit bosses know the deal.