The really weird thing, and I'm not sure entirely what this is, our "very high end" work, has taken off. ($50+/gallon, with whichever level of ingredients people are willing to pay for.)

Some of that might be that more of the high-end caterers know we exist - I'm not sure anyone was doing this, before.

Part of it is also that some fruits are now $15+/pound.

I bought backpack that I was planning on buying anyways, used a 25% off coupon and bought some Christmas gifts for the family, may as well save money for Christmas 2023!

Definitely saw more email ads extending Black Friday & CyberMonday sales.

Thanksgiving night I passed one of the big outlet store malls and normally Thanksgiving evenings you'd start seeing people lining up for the pre-Black Friday sales but nothing was open & no people waiting

But I do agree people are probably putting more on credit but are also cutting back. I went to Costco's last week and usually right before Thanksgiving it's usually packed but when I went, it was semi-busy not wall-to-wall as I've seen in past years.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
On my former business it was off more than 50% year over year.

One if the reasons I took an early retirement.

Still have a year or so of mortgage payments to make but both cars are paid off and $0 in credit card debt.

When the ‘crash’ does come it’s not going to be a soft one.

Congrats on retirement, Greg!

One of the best guitar shops in the state is, of course, a mom & pop establishment, and their clientele tends more towards mid to upper tier buyers. They told me when I was in last week that "people aren't even walking in the door" now. That's how bad business has gotten. Not just slower but dead.

My son works for a master violin maker, and he tells me their upper end business has likewise crashed. Anything $10k or up is not selling. The school kids program is doing the same as usual so far, which is selling entry level instruments with a full-credit trade up to a better instrument in the future.

So the middle to upper middle class spending seems to be greatly cooling off.

For quite a few years now we've just done charitable donations for Christmas. We suggest charities and topics but let the giver decide how much and who to give to.

The grandkids get stuff but it is small and something they will get ongoing joy out of. We make a donation in the name of all the kids per family and let the kids know.

My email message count on Cyber Monday: 100+

Amazon reported that it’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday event (over 11 days) was its largest ever, but much of that is indicative of America’s shift to online retailing and away from brick and mortar establishments. Amazon grows while the mom and pops slowly (or quickly) die off.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/ec...ent-biggest-ever.amp

quote:

Originally posted by YooperSigs:
My email message count on Cyber Monday: 100+

Yup, last Friday too. Every couple of hours when they’d stack I would go delete, delete, delete and was saying “No, fuck you, no, fuck you, no”. I was unsubscribing, moving some of them to junk/spam. Fucking vultures.

If by " tapped out "
You mean out of funds ,
I'd say not even close.

https://www.costco.com/new-locations.html

Costco has always had its fingers on the pulse of the economy.
http://www.starbuckseverywhere...toreOpeningDates.htm

"It was like someone flipped a switch." Managers at Iowa a Hy-Vee grocery, Chick-fil-a, and Starbucks say business dropped significantly in November. Deliveries for Doordash and Ubereats also declined significantly.

Inflation has hit utilities, insurance, food, and everything else, with salaries actually declining with more people looking for jobs. Discretionary money is getting smaller and smaller.

quote:

Originally posted by bryan11:
"It was like someone flipped a switch." Managers at Iowa a Hy-Vee grocery, Chick-fil-a, and Starbucks say business dropped significantly in November. Deliveries for Doordash and Ubereats also declined significantly.

Inflation has hit utilities, insurance, food, and everything else, with salaries actually declining with more people looking for jobs. Discretionary money is getting smaller and smaller.

Interesting and maybe concerning anecdote here; was at my local Walmart several times in the past week or so, getting some Christmas lights and some items for my wife.

People appear to be buying the bare minimum now, I was not seeing loaded carts and people with big items like TV's etc.

Actually saw people taking items off the shelf and then putting them back on several occasions too.

The self checkouts and the manned checkouts are NOT busy like they normally are this time of year and I was there on weekend mornings and afternoons when it's usually mobbed.

The BNPL -(buy now, pay later) has increased. This used to called lay a way, but customers get the items before paying. These transactions are not reported to credit bureaus. Will have to wait. I think people are still trying to spend to maintain their lifestyle. IE: Doom spending

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
One of the best guitar shops in the state is, of course, a mom & pop establishment, and their clientele tends more towards mid to upper tier buyers. They told me when I was in last week that "people aren't even walking in the door" now. That's how bad business has gotten. Not just slower but dead.

My son works for a master violin maker, and he tells me their upper end business has likewise crashed. Anything $10k or up is not selling. The school kids program is doing the same as usual so far, which is selling entry level instruments with a full-credit trade up to a better instrument in the future.

So the middle to upper middle class spending seems to be greatly cooling off.

I read during the scamdemic, it brought a lot of people into guitar playing and bicycle riding. The entry level stuff was bought up quick as new people were buying it. New players aren't buying mid-high end gear or bicycles. Manufacturers focused on producing the lower end/entry level gear to catch up to demand. Now guitar shops are overstocked with lower end/entry level gear. Lots of people on guitar forums are selling, people are also selling on Reverb but people aren't buying. Prices are constantly dropping until the item sells or it sits for months without selling.

Smith & Wesson revolvers are my first love and I set up at a couple of Louisville gun shows a year, National Gun day advertised as the 2nd largest gun show in USA behind Tulsa, make that far behind Tulsa.

Normally on Friday set-up there are buyers from the big Gun Broker sellers such as Sarah15, Gunnerbuck's dad, Scheels, Bryant Ridge, Fugate Bros, et al walking the aisles trying to scarf bargains before you can get them on the table. At the Oct fall show they were all mia except Fugate. Walk in trade was dead as well. Noticeable absence of long time regular vendors and I wouldn't bother going if it wasn't practically in my back yard. Tables are now $135, parking $12 and $15 admission. Show is just a shell of what it was 10 years ago and nothing like the mega event it used to be in the late 90s. I closed my table down Sat and did not go back for Sunday.

Yeah. Young folks aren’t going to the gunshow when it’s been turned into a money grab. A young guy in a first job might have to spend two hours take-home pay to get through the door.

quote:

Originally posted by bendable:
If by " tapped out "
You mean out of funds ,
I'd say not even close.

https://www.costco.com/new-locations.html

Costco has always had its fingers on the pulse of the economy.

So, 4 new Costco, one of which is in China. Tells you nothing about "not even close".

quote:

http://www.starbuckseverywhere...toreOpeningDates.htm

How about those that were closed just this year?
https://financebuzz.com/starbucks-closings-2023

I went into the Sam’s Club in Midland, Texas today at lunchtime. I was surprised to find the parking lot less than half full and what seemed like very few shoppers in the store for 4 days before Christmas.

I've been actively watching this evolve for years. The decline in retail started in 1991, which was the first economic decline after the big stock market crash in 1987. It was at this point when people started asking serious questions about our economic health.

People were laid off and when they were put back to work, they found that they had 20% to 100% more work and responsibility than they previously had. This has trended upwards with each subsequent economic pullback over the years.

People just don't have the time and energy to go out shopping anymore. This is doubly so if we're talking about retailers who don't take what they're doing seriously.

The people I know who have the money to spend don't have the time and energy to run from store to store, looking for the right item. People who have the time and energy to do that don't have significant money to spend.

Have expertise in what you are selling and don't waste your customer's time and energy. They don't have whole lot to spare.

How about everyone here? Do you have an excess of time and energy to waste on a retailer who doesn't have what you are looking for? I know I don't. I'm tired.

People go to stores that have their act together. The days of being a brain dead retailer are over.

V.