They were The Smartest Guys in the Room. Until they weren't.

Will Tesla become dominant in their segment? Or will they become another smoke-and-mirrors cautionary tale?

Curious what the financial minds of the Forum think.

Having watched Wall Street for ~25 years we have seen the 'cult of personality' move the meter even when the product line is thin. Recent example is Theranos.

I'm on the fence about this one...

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With the cost of fuel dropping massively automakers have big problems selling hybrids and of course electric cars, the buyers are now simply those that need an ego support for their neighbors to know they are green, rich, and trendy.

Tesla has been running on government funds for every sale CA and Federal rebates have made the cars profitable, last I heard some of those rebate programs lapsed.

There is something wrong with the feds giving taxpayer dollars to Musk to encourage wealthy people for a discount on a purchase of a $100,000+ luxury car they clearly don't need a discount on based on average income.

Worldwide fuel prices and availability being the key to any alternative fuel vehicle. Tesla has done it very well, I wonder if it would have survived not having federal and state dollars propping it up...

Not to worry, Solar City will bring Tesla's numbers up. Musk is now working on his next successful venture, to colonize Mars.

There is a diff between Enron and Tesla. Enron's performance was going downhill, and they cooked the books to hide it. Tesla's numbers don't look very good, but they are not likely cooking the books. That said, I don't know if Tesla will really turn things around. As noted, it seems gov't subsidies are keeping them afloat . . . and when you run out of other people's money to spend. . .

Tesla is the number 5 car maker by market cap.
and the largest us car company by market cap.

It produced 80,000 cars a year and plans to produce 550,000 soon, if it can.

Ford produced 6,600,000 cars world wide is valued Less than Tesla.

In my opinion something has to give.

The tax breaks are going away and TN has actually put a surtax of $100 extra to register an electric vehicle (TN uses registration fees and gas tax fees for roads - since electrics/hybrids don't pay as much gas tax but still use the roads, they have to pay extra to register every year now).

Electrics won't be practical for me until they get to the 250-300 mile range.

Interestingly, Volvo just announced it was phasing out conventional internal combustion engines.

"Too big to fail" is what comes to mind. Tunnel digger man valued more than Ford? Yeah, that doesn't smell right.

Any other company would have had its Board in handcuffs for Solar City.

If they were smart, they would buy GM, it would be a hell of a play and cement them as the best con men since Joe Kennedy, but they would survive

I don't think Tesla has ever generated a profit. But worse, their cashflow from operations continues to be negative -- it takes more cash to build and deliver a Tesla than the cash they get selling a Tesla. And it seems to me their acquisition of Solar City maybe added dead weight.

Their market cap is a sign of the markets confidence in a future miracle.

My understanding is that Tesla is living off the government's hand in the form of incentives. I do not own it and would not be interested until they show some profit.

I fear a lot of people are going to get hurt on Tesla.

RMD

I heard William Clays password at Ford is Elon Musk Sucks....

They are toys for rich, guilty people.

Not for us working guys.

One of my favorites from my time at "the firm previously know as Arthur"

^^^

thats good - hadn't seen that before but I like it

Solyndra with wheels.

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
Solyndra with wheels.

Yup....and they are geographically only about a mile apart on I-880 in Fremont Ca.

I drive past the Tesla plant and the old Solyndra building all the time.

I wonder if the environmentalists will ever figure out that electricity doesn't come from the sun. Most anyway.
Coal, natural gas, nukes, and yes a tiny bit is solar, but most is traditionally generated by people Al Gore claims are trying to end the world.
Then when you figure the environmental issues caused by the manufacture and eventual disposal of the batteries they are much less appealing.

When people call them "electric" or 'battery powered" cars, I correct them and say that they are coal powered or natural gas powered cars.

I also think it's a mistake to think of tesla as a car company. It is more appropriate to call them a battery company or a renewable energy storage company. The cars are just goods that allow them to sell batteries. That's also why I think they did the Solar City deal. It will increase their ability to place large capacity batteries in the market.

They did it to get the board members bailed out of a bad investment

Was discussing this with a buddy. I think Tesla has major issues. Friend says I dont understand expanding business. My point was that at some point they are going to need to turn the corner and start making some serious money.