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| wishing we were congress |
Real Clear Politics current evaluation of House: 206 DEMs, 216 REPs Getting close to the 218 needed  Gray - still undecided | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
 ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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posting without pants |
In recent history, has a lawsuit overturned an election? Strive to live your life so when you wake up in the morning and your feet hit the floor, the devil says "Oh crap, he's up." | |||
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Frangas non Flectes |
As of right now, updated sometime in the last few minutes. 98.03% Est. Vote Counted Candidate-------Total Votes-------% Votes Katie Hobbs (D)-------1,266,922-------50.4% Kari Lake (R)-------1,247,428-------49.6% Difference of 19,494. Can we finish with this clown show tonight, or do we have to wait until tomorrow to finish counting maybe a hundred thousand votes? Get it over with already. ______________________________________________ Carthago delenda est | |||
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| Member |
Maybe something like this though in a smaller local election ??? God Bless  https://fb.watch/gOOH_lrENM/ "Always legally conceal carry. At the right place and time, one person can make a positive difference." | |||
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Oriental Redneck |
Only one more to go. The Dems need to win all 13 remaining contests to retain control.  Q | |||
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| Oriental Redneck |
https://www.theamericanconserv...om/dont-blame-trump/ Don't Blame Trump Any midterm autopsy ought to focus on how to close the national money gap, and how to turn out less engaged voters. J.D. Vance Nov 14, 2022 12:55 PM Something odd happened on Election Day. In the morning, we were confident of my victory in Ohio and cautiously optimistic about the rest of the country. By the time the polls closed, that optimism had turned to jubilance—and lobbying. Every consultant and personality I encountered during my campaign claimed credit for their own faction. The victory was a testament to Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), one person told me. Another argued instead that SLF had actually bungled the race, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)—chaired by Rick Scott—deserved the credit. (Full disclosure: both the NRSC and SLF helped my race in Ohio, for which I’m grateful.) But then the results rolled in, and it was clear the outcome was far more disappointing than hoped. And every person claiming victory on Tuesday morning knew exactly who to blame on Tuesday night: Donald J. Trump. Of course, no man is above criticism. But the quick turn from gobbling up credit to vomiting blame suggests there is very little analysis at work. So let’s try some of that. Let’s start with an obvious caveat: there is a lot we don’t know. Precinct level data is still outstanding in most states, and exit polls are notoriously finicky. Votes are still being counted out west. We’re still ignorant about a lot. But any effort to blame Trump—or McConnell for that matter—ignores a major structural advantage for Democrats: money. Money is how candidates fund the all-important advertising that reaches swing voters, and it’s how candidates fund turnout operations. And in every marquee national race, Republicans got crushed financially. The reason is ActBlue. ActBlue is the Democrats’ national fundraising platform, where 21 million individual donors shovel small donations into every marquee national race. ActBlue is why my opponent ran nonstop ads about how much he “agreed with Trump” during the summer. It is why John Fetterman was able to raise $75 million for his election. Republican small dollar fundraising efforts are paltry by comparison, and Republican fundraising efforts suffer from high consultant and “list building” fees—where Republicans pay a lot to acquire small-dollar donors. This is why incumbents have such massive advantages: much of the small-dollar fundraising my own campaign did went to fundraising and list-building expenses. If and when I run for reelection, almost all of it will go directly to my campaign. Democrats don’t have this problem. They raise more money from more donors, with lower overhead. Outside groups, like SLF, try to close this gap. But it is a losing proposition. Under federal elections law, campaigns pay way less for advertising than outside “Super PACs.” In some states, $10 million from an outside group is less efficient than $2 million spent by a campaign. So long as Republicans lose so badly in the small dollar fundraising game, Democrats will have a massive structural advantage. Importantly, because ActBlue diverts resources to competitive races, this structural advantage can be magnified. Let’s look at how this played out specifically. At first blush, Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp are similar figures: they both won close elections in 2018, and both cruised to reelection in 2022. They are both popular, effective governors from the South. But one won by over 20, and one by 8 (still an impressive margin). What explains this? Money. Look at the fundraising totals: Ron DeSantis outraised Charlie Crist about 7:1. Kemp was actually outraised, albeit barely, by Stacey Abrams. Money, of course, is not dispositive—Kemp won convincingly—but it has a major effect. In both cases, incumbency provided a major advantage, in part because it’s easier to raise money when you’ve already won. But incumbency is also powerful in and of itself. Just look to Iowa, where incumbent governor Kim Reynolds cruised to reelection by a 20 point-margin, while newcomer Republican A.G. candidate Brenna Bird won by less than one point against twenty-eight-year incumbent Democrat Tom Miller. This brings us to the Senate. In competitive states, every non-incumbent candidate was swamped with cash by national Democrats. This is true for Trump-aligned candidates (like me), anti-Trump candidates (like Joe O’Dea in Colorado), and those who straddled both camps. The house tells a similar story. Every person blaming Donald Trump, or bad candidates endorsed by Trump, ought to show a single national marquee race where a non-incumbent beat a well-funded opponent. The few exceptions—New York among them—don’t tell an easy anti-Trump story. In Ohio, for example, Republican candidates ran against extremely well-funded Democrat opposition. Some of them were MAGA. Some establishment. Almost all of them lost. The only exception was Max Miller in Northeast Ohio, one of Trump’s early endorsements. There is a related structural problem, which is that higher propensity voters (suburban whites, especially) are just more and more Democratic. Meanwhile, a lot of the Trump base just doesn’t turn out in midterm elections. Again, this is not unique to Trump: these voters have always had substandard turnout numbers. But 20 years ago, when most of them voted for Democrats, that meant Republicans had a structural advantage in midterms. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. This problem is exacerbated by Democrats’ strong advantages in states that have expanded vote by mail. In the short term, as illustrated last week, those advantages serve as a reminder of the need for voting reform in this country, modeled on success in states like Ohio at running clean, fair elections: establishing fair but appropriately narrow windows to return ballots; implementing signature verification; conducting all pre-election work necessary to facilitate rapid tabulation of early votes when polls close; and implementing national photo ID requirements to ensure elections are secure. In the long term, the way to solve this is to build a turnout machine, not gripe at the former president. But building a turnout machine without organized labor and amid declining church attendance is no small thing. Our party has one major asset, contra conventional wisdom, to rally these voters: President Donald Trump. Now, more than ever, our party needs President Trump’s leadership to turn these voters out and suffers for his absence from the stage. The point is not that Trump is perfect. I personally would have preferred an endorsement of Lou Barletta over Mastriano in the Pennsylvania governor’s race, for example. But any effort to pin blame on Trump, and not on money and turnout, isn’t just wrong. It distracts from the actual issues we need to solve as a party over the long term. Indeed, one of the biggest changes I would like to see from Trump’s political organization—whether he runs for president or not—is to use their incredible small dollar fundraising machine for Trump-aligned candidates, which it appears he has begun doing to assist Herschel Walker in his Senate runoff. Blaming Trump isn’t just wrong on the facts, it is counterproductive. Any autopsy of Republican underperformance ought to focus on how to close the national money gap, and how to turn out less engaged Republicans during midterm elections. These are the problems we have, and rather than blaming everyone else, it’s time for party leaders to admit we have these problems and work to solve them. Q | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
He's not wrong... BUT Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) have huge overhead and have a hard time raising money because the money is wasted where it is not needed or it's used to actually work against MAGA candidates. If you give once, you are continually hounded, and given "surveys" which no one reads. They really don't care what the base thinks. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Altitude Minimum |
I've said it before. NEVER give money to the RSCC or the RNC or any of those friggin grifters. Give money directly to your candidate of choice so Mitch doesn't get his grubby hands on it and spend against our interests. | |||
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Get Off My Lawn |
I see there are two seats still in contention in Colorado, and 10 in CA. Don't know where who the 13th seat is located. Lauren Boebert is still leading by a thousand+ votes, with 99% reporting, ***correction***Boebert will need a margin of .05% or approx. 800+ votes. So right now, she has a chance of winning without a recall. In CA, the best bet is District 22, McCarthy's and Nunes old stomping grounds, has been red since 2002. "I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965 | |||
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| Member |
Biden Wins! And that’s a problem for Democrats. (OPINION PIECE IN WSJ Cheer up, Republicans. While a red wave may not have washed over U.S. politics on Tuesday, the ultimate outcome could be even better for the GOP. Given the president’s lousy approval ratings and inability to speak coherently, a midterm shellacking on the order of 1994 or 2010 would have triggered an aggressive effort by Democrats to push Mr. Biden off stage before the 2024 elections. Now they may be stuck with him. Here’s the deal: The comeback kid from Claymont can now argue that his leadership prevented the kind of midterm drubbing frequently suffered by the party of a first-term president. Pollster Mark Penn sees Mr. Biden as one of the night’s big winners. True, Democrats limited their losses by earning more support than the president in swing districts—and sometimes even by running away from him. But they also can’t blame him for a national outcome that exceeded expectations. Incumbency has its advantages. The president is now in a stronger position to resist retirement and punish those who suggest it. Stories about Biden cognition may have to wait for White House staff memoirs, rather than appearing anonymously and immediately in the Washington Post. He’s ready and raring to run! James Freeman of the Journal editorial board comments on the news of the day. If Mr. Biden somehow ends up on a debate stage 23 months from now with Ron DeSantis or Glenn Youngkin or Tim Scott or Kim Reynolds or Doug Ducey or Greg Abbott, the president could lose 40 states. Here in 2022, if Republicans can secure at least House control once the inexcusable wait for voting results comes to an end, they will be able to end the leftist legislative agenda. Then they can look forward to greater success in 2024. *** A Rough Election Night for People Who Reject Election Results What would we do without public opinion experts? Paying too much attention to recent polling, this column expected closer finishes in the Michigan governor’s race and the New Hampshire contest for a U.S. Senate seat. Since the underdog candidates in both races had prioritized restoring parental control over education, their losses may seem like a policy setback. But the landslide victory of Gov. DeSantis in Florida, who has vastly expanded school choice in the Sunshine State and championed reform candidates for local school boards, suggests other issues may have been at play in Michigan and New Hampshire. A common thread nationwide is that voters prefer candidates who respect the call after elections don’t go their way. Tudor Dixon in Michigan and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire were among the struggling candidates Tuesday who had previously disputed the 2020 presidential election results. Similarly, Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, who had disputed her own 2018 loss, ran well behind the performance of her party’s Senate candidate this year as she posted another defeat. Most of those paying the price on Tuesday for refusing to accept previous election results were Republicans. But it seems that voters also may not be too keen on politicians who seek to exploit others’ refusal to accept election results. Rep. Elaine Luria, who made regular appearances on the Democrats’ Capitol riot show, also went down to defeat this week. *** Speaking of the DeSantis landslide, it seems the political divorce between Florida voters and the Democratic Party was about as nasty as this column expected. Given his resounding victory, the Florida governor seems to have good reason to run for president. Marc Thiessen of the American Enterprise Institute is thinking that Mr. DeSantis should promise to tamp down today’s partisan warfare by offering pardons to both the Trump and Biden families. *** James Freeman is the co-author of “The Cost: Trump, China and American Revival.” LINK: https://www.wsj.com/articles/b..._opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s | |||
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| Frangas non Flectes |
Arizona Governor 98.21% Est. Vote Counted Candidate-------Total Votes-------% Votes Katie Hobbs (D)-------1,268,851-------50.4% Kari Lake (R)-------1,250,272-------49.6% Difference of 18,679 votes. I don't buy it. ______________________________________________ Carthago delenda est | |||
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His Royal Hiney |
I'm so glad the 2022 midterm elections inspires much more confidence in the accuracy and integrity of the results because so much has been done since the 2020 election to fix things. Oh wait... never mind. "It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946. | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money |
I don't buy it either. Now it will be up to her to prove it. I hope she can. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| Get Off My Lawn |
^^^^^^^ What is strange is that Republican Kimberly Yee beat Democrat Martin Quezada in the race for state treasurer. At the time of Quezada's concession on Sunday, Yee had received 1,231,409 votes, Quezada had received 995,535 votes when he conceded the race. Yee was the only AZ candidate not endorsed by Trump. Really odd. And an FYI; Prop 309, a measure to strengthen existing laws on Voter ID and mail-in ballots lost as well; voters not wanting more secure elections  "I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965 | |||
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| Shit don't mean shit |
Biden won't be the Dem nominee in 2024. | |||
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| Member |
Why are you so sure??? It would be great for Republicans. | |||
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| Get my pies outta the oven!  |
Have you seen the man just this week? I'm not even sure he'll still be on this side of the dirt in 23 months, he's literally and rapidly declining before our very eyes. | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money |
Within Minutes of Arizona Gov Election Call, Twitter, DHS and Big Tech Begin Blocking Discussion of Difference Between “Ballots and Votes” I’m going to skip noting that Elon Musk Twitter is essentially unchanged, regarding the relationship between Twitter, the Dept of Homeland Security and the disinformation police, as many keep saying Musk Twitter has not had time to reformat. That said, five days after our post-election review of the difference between ballots and votes, and within minutes of the controversial Arizona governor contest being announced by DHS media outlets, suddenly any discussion about “Ballots -vs- Votes” is considered a risk to democracy.  The need for control is a reaction to fear. Twitter specifically, and Big Tech writ large, has now placed a warning on the CTH article where we draw attention to the general difference between ballots and votes. The timing of the intervention, as related to the content discussed, is transparent. Sunlight is a great disinfectant and must be controlled at all costs. https://theconservativetreehou...d-votes/#more-239817 "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| Member |
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Yeah. We had dinner in China. Read the piece. It has nothing to do with his competency. He is so stubborn and emboldened by this "victory" he will have to be dragged off the state. This is a fanciful opinon piece, nothing more. | |||
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