Townhall.com
Walter E. Williams

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers predicted that if Donald Trump were elected, there would be a protracted recession within 18 months. Heeding its experts, a month before the election, The Washington Post ran an editorial with the headline "A President Trump Could Destroy The World Economy." Steve Rattner, a Democratic financier and former head of the National Economic Council, warned, "If the unlikely event happens and Trump wins, you will see a market crash of historic proportions." When Trump's electoral victory became apparent, Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warned that the world was "very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight." By the way, Krugman has been so wrong in so many of his economic predictions, but that doesn't stop him from making more shameless predictions.

People whom we've trusted as experts have often been wrong beyond imagination, and it's nothing new. Irving Fisher, a distinguished Yale University economics professor in 1929, predicted, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Three days later, the stock market crashed. In 1945, regarding money spent on the Manhattan Project, Adm. William Leahy told President Harry S. Truman, "That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The (atomic) bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives."

In 1903, the president of the Michigan Savings Bank, advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in Ford Motor Co., said, "The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty -- a fad." Confidence in the staying power of the horse was displayed by a 1916 comment of the aide-de-camp to Field Marshal Douglas Haig at a tank demonstration: "The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is little short of treasonous."


Albert Einstein predicted: "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." In 1899, Charles H. Duell, the U.S. commissioner of patents, said, "Everything that can be invented has been invented." Listening to its experts in 1936, The New York Times predicted, "A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere."

To prove that it's not just academics, professionals and businesspeople who make harebrained predictions, Hall of Fame baseball player Tris Speaker's 1919 advice about Babe Ruth was, "Taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard." For those of us not familiar with baseball, Babe Ruth was one of the greatest outfielders who ever played the game.

The world's greatest geniuses are by no means exempt from out-and-out nonsense. Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) was probably the greatest scientist of all time. He laid the foundation for classical mechanics; his genius transformed our understanding of physics, mathematics and astronomy. What's not widely known is that Newton spent most of his waking hours on alchemy. Some of his crackpot experiments included trying to turn lead into gold. He wrote volumes on alchemy, but after his death, Britain's Royal Society deemed that they were "not fit to be printed."

Then there's mathematical physicist and engineer Lord Kelvin (1824-1907), whose major contribution was in thermodynamics. Kelvin is widely recognized for determining the correct value of absolute zero, approximately minus 273.15 degrees Celsius or minus 459.67 degrees Fahrenheit. In honor of his achievement, extremely high and extremely low temperatures are expressed in units called kelvins. To prove that one can be a genius in one area and an idiot in another, Kelvin challenged geologists by saying that Earth is between 20 million and 100 million years old. Kelvin predicted, "X-rays will prove to be a hoax." And he told us, "I can state flatly that heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."

The point of all this is to say that we can listen to experts but take what they predict with a grain or two of salt.

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Trust but verify. Economic predictions are about as reliable as seeing a fortune teller. When it comes to medicine and matters of law, we can always get second opinions.

One of the advantages of this Forum for me, is to get imput from a number of people, experts included, before making a decision.

When I worked for Norwest Bank, we had a famous economist that I believe was on the Presidents council. I listened to him at a local gathering a couple of times.

He was asked what the market would do in the future. He responded "It will either go up or down, but not right away."

I thought he was brilliant......and he was right.

Mike

Can't trust them when their opinions are politically biased.

In my younger and dumber days, I was screwed over by several "experts" in various fields. I vowed to never be taken in again, hence I tried to learn as much as I could about whatever I was involved in-so as to refute stupid ideas before that path was taken.

Served me well all these years later.

depends on the field

some are contrived experts, and others are based on pure fact and verifiable data

I don't trust experts on contrived topics...

for example - 'expert on global warming'

that would be an oxymoron

I think the major take-away here is that most predictions are worth the same as those in fortune cookies.

As an Army CID agent and in other situations I had so many outrageous experiences with “experts” years ago that I wrote a five page essay describing them. Of the expert experts, though, this was one of my favorites as a prediction about the first Gulf War:

“The Iraqis are too combat-experienced to run away under fire. … The [U.S.] Army’s armored and mechanized forces can play no offensive role against the vast defensive strength of the Iraqi army.”
— Edward N. Luttwak, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Thanks for posting this article JALLEN. It’s a great reminder! I love Walter Williams.

Attributed to Harry Truman.


“I said that an expert was a fella who was afraid to learn anything new because then he wouldn't be an expert anymore”

There have been so many examples of experts making fools of themselves with bold, sweeping predictions you would think they would stop it.

Whoopi is a great example of today's experts !

Communities bringing in expert hunters to kill deer eating the shrubs. Aka, somebody's friend that hunts ....

Ppls mind have strayed from common sense thus their is only speculation and that is, of late, been so far off ...

"The truth as I know it is subject to revision"
Rings true ..

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:
There have been so many examples of experts making fools of themselves with bold, sweeping predictions you would think they would stop it.

Nope. Harold Camping was a bible expert. started out in life with an engineering degree and got into radio evangelism. It was all well and good until the last 25 years of his life, he thought he figured out the mathematical formula of the second coming. He predicted and failed. Five times. The problem was a good number of people believed him. Selling their homes and started traveling the states in RV to spread the news of the coming end.

There's also a con where a guy gives stock tips that pan out 5 times in a row to prove that people can trust him with their money to invest since he always makes the right calls. But it turns out, he starts with a big pool of people, tell one half a certain stock will go up and the other half, the stock will go down. To the group that he gave the right guess, he again splits them in half and tells the two groups opposite predictions until he's left with the group where he's made the 5 correct guesses in a row. To these people, he's obviously an expert.

I give more credence to someone with 20-30 years experience vs. someone with an education.

quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:
There have been so many examples of experts making fools of themselves with bold, sweeping predictions you would think they would stop it.

Nope. Harold Camping was a bible expert. started out in life with an engineering degree and got into radio evangelism. It was all well and good until the last 25 years of his life, he thought he figured out the mathematical formula of the second coming. He predicted and failed. Five times. The problem was a good number of people believed him. Selling their homes and started traveling the states in RV to spread the news of the coming end.

There's also a con where a guy gives stock tips that pan out 5 times in a row to prove that people can trust him with their money to invest since he always makes the right calls. But it turns out, he starts with a big pool of people, tell one half a certain stock will go up and the other half, the stock will go down. To the group that he gave the right guess, he again splits them in half and tells the two groups opposite predictions until he's left with the group where he's made the 5 correct guesses in a row. To these people, he's obviously an expert.

I would concentrate on sincere prognosticators, forget about intentional conmen. That’s too easy.

Camping seems like one, and perhaps believed he had figured out something worth knowing. Irving Fischer apparently was one, and maybe the guys who pronounced the Titanic unsinkable.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
depends on the field

some are contrived experts, and others are based on pure fact and verifiable data

I don't trust experts on contrived topics...

for example - 'expert on global warming'

that would be an oxymoron

Great insight, I learned something.

Can we trust experts? First, one must define exactly what an expert is in today's world. There was a time where the term 'expert' meant something tangible. In today's world, many people hold the title 'expert', when in reality, they know virtually nothing of value on the topic, and instead, share their opinions.

I think a good rule of thumb to follow is if the topic is of interest to you, listen closely to the commentary, and then go forth and verify everything that was said. Better to decide for yourself than to accept someone else's opinion(s).

I once heard that ex means former and "spurt" is a drip under pressure.

I was also thinking about psychics...

why do you need to call to make an appointment...shouldn't they already know?