My current truck is a 2010 F150 Supercab 4x4 with a 6.6' bed. I purchased it 5 years ago coming off a lease with about 43k miles on it. I drive an average of 33k miles a year and have just under 200,00 miles on it now. I want to replace it after the first of the year but am open to buying sooner. Used truck prices are stupid right now. I buy 4 year old pick ups so someone else takes the depreciation hit. Lease ones are nice because they are usually lower miles and aren't beat up. Looking at what's out there (not a ton of ones speced out like I want) they are all north of $30,000, I believe I paid about $23k out the door for my last truck.

I have excellent credit (about 780 FICO) will keep my current one and hand it off to my wife for farm duty and her vehicle(she's a full time farmer) as she mostly only goes into town once a week for groceries and the feed mill. I'm not really liking the idea of an over $500 a month truck payment but trucks ain't cheap. If the thought is they are going up in price (and interest rates may climb) it is worth considering buying now. but if prices will be flat or go down, I'd rather wait.

So what's the thoughts from the forum?

I drove past a rail yard here in Orlando last week where new vehicles for local dealerships are delivered/stored. I didn't see one square foot of space anywhere that wasn't covered with a new car/truck. As a matter of fact, it appeared they were keeping lots of the double decker rail cars in the yard to use as additional storage. My point in this is I think there's going to be an absolute overflow of new vehicles that need to sell asap prompting manufacturers and dealers to come up with a whole bunch of new ways to move these vehicles. If I'm right about that backlog, a new truck will still be expensive, but less so than normal.

New trucks are in short supply right now with high demand. Dealers around Detroit are selling them before they can get them thru new car prep. That translates into a short supply of used units. I doubt you'll see any drop in the value of used units between now and the end of the year. If anything, they may creep up even more. If you want a deal, look at a sedan. The dealers can't give them away.

Inventory is still very low everywhere, new that is, also driving up the price of used. It will take a while for dealers to be full with inventory, months


You still own a business? A new truck with the huge tax code 179 write off won't benefit you?

Used market is nuts right now due to new inventory being extremely limited. It’s literally the worst time ever to buy a used vehicle, at least in my lifetime. In the next 6 months new inventory will resume, and normalize, and used prices will stabilize which means they’ll fall as they should.

quote:

Originally posted by BigSwede:

You still own a business? A new truck with the huge tax code 179 write off won't benefit you?

Yes I still own a business. However I don't need a huge write off nor can I swing a grand a month truck payment that it would take to buy a new one even with the zero percent deals being offered.

Not much new trucks on any of the dealers lots. The used stuff is virtually nonexistent. I doubt things will normalize until spring, if the big 3 start cranking out trucks.

Used and new trucks are few and far between in my area and have been for a month or two. I would expect prices to rise until those lots get the inventory.

quote:

Used and new trucks are few and far between in my area and have been for a month or two. I would expect prices to rise until those lots get the inventory.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I agree. I own a business too. Used trucks are scarce.

Brad, if you are not a brand loyalist or super picky on options, there are often very good deals to be had at the end of the year. I don't expect prices or interest will spike or drop dramatically before the end of December.

That said, I drive a 2002 Silver-Raydo 2WD with 290,XXX miles on it, so I may not be the best to respond.

quote:

Originally posted by bionic218:

That said, I drive a 2002 Silver-Raydo 2WD with 290,XXX miles on it, so I may not be the best to respond.

My truck before this one was a 2002 Silverado. I drove it 340k+ miles. I expect 350K from a pick up.

But I'm really a Ford guy. Have a '98 F150 that my wife drives. I'm only looking at getting a new(er) one now as I want to pass my current truck off to her. I'm not in much a of a hurry. It just makes sense to buy one in the not distant future as i will be 67 when it's paid off.

It's REALLY tough to say what's going to happen in the next 6 months. Here in Florida, I've heard the construction industry has slowed WAY DOWN......which also slows truck sales.....I also see lots of new trucks on the lots......see what the year end deals are.....or just always be on the lookout and when the right one pops up.....jump.....used inventory is really low right now.

Used truck prices will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Heck one of my BIL's bought a new truck a while back. He was looking for used but the prices were not that far off for a brand new one, which is where he went. It was a new Dodge if that matters.

used vehicle prices jumped up because a lack of supply of new vehicles due to shutdowns. I think prices on used vehicles will adjust once every thing is back to normal.
I think another factor that's driving used truck prices up is the cost of new ones
F150 can't get in the high $70s

Here is the depreciation and expected sales price of an F150 for 5 years once the inventory has stabilized.

1 $8,778 79.79% $34,654 13,500 2021
2 $11,236 74.13% $32,196 27,000 2022
3 $14,042 67.67% $29,390 40,500 2023
4 $15,075 65.29% $28,357 54,000 2024
5 $17,277 60.22% $26,155 67,500 2025

https://caredge.com/ford/f-150/depreciation

Part of it is that for the past 6 months of COVID auctions have been closed to buyers for being in the lanes, several were shut down to any type of sales for a while. My neighbor is one of the top guys at one of the two major auto auctions in the USA.

Once the auctions are full swing it will change, along with factories that are now back producing.

The amount of time and how much drop? Hard to tell.

I wouldn't think about trying to predict the situation six months from now. Too many moving parts. I wouldn't have predicted six months ago that prices would be rising rapidly.

Check your local banks and credit unions for repo's.

I'm normally adverse to buying repo's because of the thought that the owner skimped on maintenance and repairs due to no money or just not giving a crap over a longer period of time.

However, with all the layoffs and income loss due to the current economic situation, I think of someone who had a good paying job or small business lost much in just a few months. That lets me think this particular time might be a great time to pick up a repo without too much concern of a bum owner, just a good guy who got bit by the covid crap.

Good luck to you.

Due to dithering over finding my 'best deal' I delayed trading in my 5 yr old JK at the prime time, derived from when I had done various studies & identified what seemed the 'best local market value' vs predictable maintenance costs and depreciation curve.

Despite missing that goal, other factors affected my new vehicle purchase. It was increasingly more difficult to crawl into & out of my daily driver, and small wear/aging signs were growing to be more noisome. Yes I could have expected another 5 years service, but why?

I had wearied of the decades-long wait for the new Bronco to appear. And I drove the new Ranger. After sufficient comparison driving the rigs of interest to me, and comparing overall cost, I bought new a few months ago.

So far it has been a marvelous product and a good choice. Considering the labor & calculations involved to satisfy my own needs physical and financial, there's no way to advise someone else. I would have saved some $ making the deal last year when my trade was worth more & the dealer price was less. There are considerable advantages in my rural life style, to have a mid size pick up providing 24+ mpg every time I drive it.

Good luck in coming to your decision.

Here are some options for you IF you're willing to come to FL or have it shipped from FL. I think truck prices in Florida right now are going to be a lot cheaper than Michigan. Downside is less of a selection of 4x4's, but still a decent amount.

Offleaseonly.com has 6 (v6) and 3 (V8) late model F-150's and their prices are good and vehicles are solid.
https://www.offleaseonly.com/used-ford.htm

Or Mullinax Ford currently has 167 used F-150's, they're no haggle and the price listed is the price, my brother is a finance guy (was a salesman) at the Palm Beach location. He could do everything over the phone/internet for you, if you see one there you like........

https://mullinaxfordwestpalm.c...0-west-palm-beach-fl