quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
...
Honestlou - if your investment strategy is to follow the emotions of a female, God help you. That is a sure way to buy high and sell low, like the majority of retail investors...

"My wife strongly wants me to get out of the market and get back in after it hits bottom. What a wonderful idea!

Sarcasm aside..."

Well the dow is down over 1600 pts in the last 5 days.
Interesting to see what next week brings.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Well the dow is down over 1600 pts in the last 5 days.
Interesting to see what next week brings.

Another 1600 point drop.

I need to get a part time job and if I work it for 50 years I should be able to recoup the loss in value. Or, I'll live another 50 years on dog food and be a happy idiot waving at cars..

Yes, 5% of your portfolio, 15%, 20%, 30%, 40% even more. Then what?

Oh that's right. Don't worry. It will come back with vengeance. Oh good. I feel so much better now.

There are so many things -ucked up right now. It really makes one wonder.

Can’t speak to undervalued… However I think we’ll see new lows at least around the election, and very likely next year.

Pretty soon they're going to be 'no valued'

It is not a stock market- it is a market of stocks.

There are stocks that are overvalued and undervalued at any point in time.

Not only no, but hell no.

At age 70 I have been racheting down stock exposure over the last decade and now are about 27 percent stocks. At my age this helps me sleep a lot better at night. I might increase that percent at some time but not yet. I got a feeling this is going to be another multi year bear market like 2000 - 2002 or maybe even worse.

Inflation is a huge problem right now and this has not been seen since the Carter years and even Yellen admitted she was wrong about this. The Fed has the dilemma on how to defeat inflation without causing a severe recession. Friday's tumble was a lot about concerns that the Fed will have to get much more agressive with interest rate hikes than they first believed with inlation being quite a bit higher than "expected".

$40 trillion in debt might not seem to be a big deal when interest rates are ultra low but the higher rates can greatly increase the cost of servicing the debt by several hundred billion dollars a year.

Interest rates have been coming down since the Carter years and tens of millions of Americans have been using their house as a piggy bank by refinacing at lower rates to reduce mortgage rate and take equity out. Well that is rapidly changing as morgage rates have sky rocketed too and put an abrubt end to much of that. I also expect that home prices will be retreating soon and already reports of slowing sales in many areas. Car loans and other consumer loans have increased rates a lot too.

I have a really hard time believing that the average American family speding an estimated $5000 a year extra for inflationary price increases will not significantly impact the economy.

The Biden adminstration seems to have zero interest in doing anything about the huge increases in energy costs, which are the crux of the problem, being beholden to green interests and I don't see that changing for at least two years.

Consumer confidence is lower than whale shit and probably will not change to the better any time within the next couple year either.

Oh, even though not near as much news about it these days but there still is a war in Ukraine which is creating a whole lot of extra uncertainty. Who knows how long that is going to go on for either but it could be quite a while yet. Europe has been hit with massive increases in energy costs too and Europeans are a significant revenue source for many American companies.

One needs to do what they feel is best for their investment situation depending on their goals, tolerance for risk, and age/time frame.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: grumpy1,

I only have two thoughts:

1. Its only a loss if you sell.

2. The only way to convince people to switch from inexpensive oil to expensive green energy is to make oil way more expensive. The irony is that the electric grid is failing at today’s consumption level. See predictions of rolling blackouts during the current heat wave. What do you think will happen if you add the load of recharging commuter cars to that grid? For reference sake, there are roughly 285m cars (includes trucks/SUVs) in the U.S.

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quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:
I only have two thoughts:

1. Its only a loss if you sell.

2. The only way to convince people to switch from inexpensive oil to expensive green energy is to make oil way more expensive. The irony is that the electric grid is failing at today’s consumption level. See predictions of rolling blackouts during the current heat wave. What do you think will happen if you add the load of recharging commuter cars to that grid? For reference sake, there are roughly 285m cars (includes trucks/SUVs) in the U.S.

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Nice to see some logical thought in the thread.
This is all true. I know a couple of people who have sold because they're frightened. They've lost significant amounts of money.

People who are petrified of losing money should put it in a savings account or something similar so they won't lose anything.

For crissakes flash, nobody is "frightened or "petrified" more like pissed off and or discouraged at the current state of affairs. And we all know why that is. Quit trying to puff yourself up regarding this topic. Many here know what they are doing. At least as much as you do. Some are not happy and are choosing to voice their displeasure with the situation. You do not need try to belittle those who post in this thread. Please.

Grumpy1, great explanation of many things going on these days. Could not agree more.

quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:
I only have two thoughts:

1. Its only a loss if you sell.

No a loss still a loss. You need to sell an "unrealized loss" to make it a "realized loss" for tax purposes.

Equities survive inflation much better than cash or interest bearing accounts. They simply inflate with the currency because the underlying value inflates.

Current losses in the market are not due to inflation, they are due to expectations of recession. Well, some people are selling due to inflation because people do all kinds of things.

The only way out of this kind of inflation is raising interest rates and potentially causing a recession. We've been through this before and we know how it goes. 2020's are the new 1970's. Same shit different decade. The 60's idealists encouraged bad policy and lawlessness, screwed everything up and then the Republicans fixed it.

^^^ Demand destruction. The Fed will raise interest rates, we'll see mortgage rates similar to the late 70's/early 80's before its over. Folks gripe about 6% Mortgage rates. They haven't seen anything yet.

Inflation? We all know that the real boogeymen for the economy.

Many, many stocks are way overpriced. More pain to come. This week could be very interesting. Actually, the rest of 2022 could be very interesting for the market.

Cash is king at the moment. I'm not selling my positions but I'm not adding to positions and I'm holding Cash in reserve for now.

quote:

Originally posted by grumpy1:

quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:
I only have two thoughts:

1. Its only a loss if you sell.

No a loss still a loss. You need to sell an "unrealized loss" to make it a "realized loss" for tax purposes.

A loss on paper is not a loss unless you make it happen. During Covid - I had Exxon, Shell, Schlumberger, etc… that all cratered. It looked bad on paper. Guess what - I didn’t lose a penny because I didn’t actually sell anything. I waited until they came back then sold for a profit. You have to take emotion out of investing.


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quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:

quote:

Originally posted by grumpy1:

quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:
I only have two thoughts:

1. Its only a loss if you sell.

No a loss still a loss. You need to sell an "unrealized loss" to make it a "realized loss" for tax purposes.

A loss on paper is not a loss unless you make it happen. During Covid - I had Exxon, Shell, Schlumberger, etc… that all cratered. It looked bad on paper. Guess what - I didn’t lose a penny because I didn’t actually sell anything. I waited until they came back then sold for a profit. You have to take emotion out of investing.

Sure it is and it has nothing to do with emotion. Sometimes it is smart to sell a loss and go with other opportinities or for tax purposes maybe to offfset capital gains.

I get statements monthly from my brokerage accounts and they show gain or loss compared to previous statement even if I did not sell or buy anything. I would not want it any other way.

If my wife asks me how our investments are doing with the recent market downturns I don't tell her "no change" because nothing has been sold, I tell her what the current value is and how it has changed. To do otherwise I would find disengenuous.

If you need to complete a net worth statement for a bank loan or such they are only interested in the current market values of your investments and not what you paid for them or what they were worh a couple months ago.


https://www.accountingtools.co...cles/unrealized-loss

quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:

quote:

Originally posted by grumpy1:

quote:

Originally posted by Abn556:
I only have two thoughts:

1. Its only a loss if you sell.

No a loss still a loss. You need to sell an "unrealized loss" to make it a "realized loss" for tax purposes.

A loss on paper is not a loss unless you make it happen. During Covid - I had Exxon, Shell, Schlumberger, etc… that all cratered. It looked bad on paper. Guess what - I didn’t lose a penny because I didn’t actually sell anything. I waited until they came back then sold for a profit. You have to take emotion out of investing.


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You still had a loss but you were fortunate enough to live long enough for it to recover. It will recover in the long run but the question is whether you will be around in the long run. I know a guy that lost so much in 2008 he would never live to recover. He was in his late 70’s and it drastically affected his retirement.

When I hit retirement in the next ten years I’ll have no more than 5% in stocks, I won’t let a crash ruin my life savings. I’m also not worried about preserving my principle, I’ll be spending everything I saved.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
For crissakes flash, nobody is "frightened or "petrified" more like pissed off and or discouraged at the current state of affairs. And we all know why that is. Quit trying to puff yourself up regarding this topic. Many here know what they are doing. At least as much as you do. Some are not happy and are choosing to voice their displeasure with the situation. You do not need try to belittle those who post in this thread. Please.

Grumpy1, great explanation of many things going on these days. Could not agree more.

You really are an arrogant ass, aren't you? I'm trying to save people money and all you're doing is your chicken little act. And, I've never made any claims to my knowledge or lack of it with respect to stocks.

Grow up for chrissakes.

Don't you have to examine the balance sheet and know something about the financial condition of a company to know whether it is undervalues in the market?