So if everyone else is in a driverless car, could I drive like a maniac? 150mph on I-75 through downtown Atlanta; the driverless cars can all see me coming and will get out of my way to keep their occupants safe, right?

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
Well just to be accurate the original gist of this thread wasn't if this tech would happen or not, it was that it was expected soon. Actually even said that in the title of the thread. Lol

It ain't happening soon. There will be cars that operate "like" a driverless car (already here) but that isn't the same as a driverless car.

You guys are also insane, yes insane, if you think somebody sleeping in a big rig while waiting for their exit wake up call is either going to happen or even an intelligent idea. Every autopilot known to man is monitored by some human who is awake at all times (other than sailboats in the middle of nowhere but those guys are fucking crazy anyways, big ocean little boat).

This works, kinda, only in places like California where the weather is perfect and the roads are pristine.

What driver less tech will realistically do is improve the highway cruise control aspect of driving. You will set it and if conditions permit it will lane keep, maintain distance, warn you of your exit coming up. It won't find you a parking spot at the strip mall. It won't get you place to place without ever "driving".

It will also make you the most distracted driver ever. But that still might be safer than the texters and cell phone people we have now. Time will tell. But not anytime soon. Lol

I'm not quite sure why you said I'm full of myself. Your petty internet/keyboard insult aside, I find irony in the above statement.

People can't fathom a world where machines are better at something than we are. Ask anyone who understands the exponential growth (that's a term of art...has a defined meaning...not just two words I randomly chose...Exponential Growth) of computers and they will tell you that they fully expect a machine to make decisions about driving better than a human.

As Para said, all things break. Point of fact, humans break. My Dad had an acquaintance who had a heart attack on the Ohio Turnpike and went across the median and into oncoming traffic. That argument is one to be made that we can debate. this is the legal side to this issue.

To say it's simply impossible that a computer could drive better than a car shows a lack of understanding of where we expect processors to be in 10 years.

The thread was saying this tech is coming. My position is that it's not coming...it's already here. My Tesla ride was eye opening. It's something that has to be experienced to really be grasped. Whether folks want it or not is an entirely different question.

All the bugs are not worked out, I assure you of that. But to say that sensors will not work in rain, snow, whatever ignores that everything is progressing at a rapid rate. The sensors will continue to develope. I cannot imagine that the tech will be the limiting factor.

Consider this, with machine learning, a car could have a sensor go bad. It could immediately "talk" to other cars around it and get the information off their cameras and use it to drive along just fine. Better yet, people are saying a fly could land on a sensor and freak the car out. Cars will likely be sharing info they are gathering off of their sensors. So car A has a fly land on its sensor, it asks cars B, C and D around it if there is an obstruction, those cars report back there is no, car A uses the sensors on the other cars until the obstruction is cleared. That kind of thing is completely possible and likely.

I'm sorry if I offended you to the point of hurling an insult at a fellow gun lover, but it is obvious that some folks don't understand where things are with autonomous vehicles. I don't pretend to understand all of this. It's extremely complex and involves a lot of issues. What I do understand is that a freaking car drove me work by itself recently.

A crappy black and white digital camera was designed about 25 years ago.

a web browser was developed about 20 years ago.

military spy drone about 20 years ago.

Plasma TV 20 years ago.

TiVO under 20 years ago.

WiFi 15 years ago.

Digital Map (Google Maps) about 10 years ago.

iPhone 10 years ago.

These are examples of things that once invented quickly took over and the changed the landscape forever. I'm sure there were nay-sayers to all of these technologies. The tech in the Tesla is like the first crappy digital camera, the first web browser (anyone else remember logging into a local sever in the mid 90's? I was on Prodigy), etc.

This is by no means mature tech. It's in it's infancy, it will grow rapidly, but it already works.

Saying the sensors won't work in snow, TO ME, sounds like saying a digital camera won't work in 1991 because you can only store 3 pictures on it. Or like saying a plasma TV won't work in 2000 because they are too expensive to manufacture.

The tech will not be the limiting factor. Industry has proven this over and over and over again. If there is to be a limiting factor, it's most likely a legal one. Perhaps an adoption one, but as Kimberkid said, the young'uns will likely be all for this, so I don't think that will be an issue.

quote:

Originally posted by konata88:
I'll admit I don't know much about the technology.

What would it do, for example, if:

1) A kid suddenly runs out into the street? As a driver, I can make a decision to swerve and hit an adjacent car or even opposing traffic vs hitting the kid. Or if it's a coyote, maybe I would choose to hit the coyote. What decisions and on what basis would the technology make while the driver is sleeping, playing on his phone, doing her makeup or whatever?

2) lots more but maybe start slow...

In my opinion, even happy path will be challenging. Not sure these companies in pursuit of the almighty dollar will do any due diligence to exception handling.

Feels reminiscent of approving Obamacare -- shove it down our throats, don't give us a choice, don't get to see it until it's out there....

That's a great question. That's what they are working on now.

You can bet the money from industry will be huge here. I can only imagine the lobbying that will take place.

The Teamsters will of course be on the "this is unsafe we need human driver's" side. Shipping companies and autonomous tech companies will be on the, "this is perfectly safe, in fact safer than human drivers" side.

Our population will likely be split by age on this issue.

If anyone wanted to doubt autonomous vehicles, this is the area I'd think they have the most logical points to be made.

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:

These are examples of things that once invented quickly took over and the changed the landscape forever.

..and there are tons of examples of things invented that bombed because the people weren't buying the idea, even if it was a good idea.

Quadraphonic music

Iridium

The Segway

Virtual Reality

Smart appliances

Internet currency....

quote:

and there are tons of examples of things invented that bombed because the people weren't buying the idea, even if it was a good idea.

Sony BetaMax, better than VHS, images were better, tapes smaller, poof gone the market decided nope...

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:

These are examples of things that once invented quickly took over and the changed the landscape forever.

..and there are tons of examples of things invented that bombed because the people weren't buying the idea, even if it was a good idea.

Quadraphonic music

Iridium

The Segway

Virtual Reality

Smart appliances

Internet currency....

I'd say the jury is still out on half of those. You could add MySpace to that list, but then it evolved to Facebook. Bitcoin will evolve into a better implementation of Blockchain.

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:

quote:

and there are tons of examples of things invented that bombed because the people weren't buying the idea, even if it was a good idea.

Sony BetaMax, better than VHS, images were better, tapes smaller, poof gone the market decided nope...

It's been 30 or so years, so I can't remember for sure. But I thought there was more content on VHS, which made the choice for customers easier. Similar to more Studios getting behind Blu-Ray instead of DVD-HD.

Most likely you'll see some of the tech being built into all models of vehicles, to supplement safety regulations for following, braking, lane change, etc.

However we'll still have the problem of the oh oh it's new tech nitwits that buy vehicles with technology designed to assist drivers however they use it as if it were a true autonomous driving system, endangering themselves and others.

The growth of that will be by either consumer demand and government mandates for safety or a little of both.

Until the government mandates it, manufacturers are not going to invest serious money in to new driverless tech for cars that cost $18,000 like a new corolla unless the tech drops significantly in cost.

Cameras, sensors, software, gps interface, constant telecommunications with hosts, tracking, etc all cost money.

Earlier someone posted that for only $50 K you could buy a Tesla with this tech so it's affordable. FYI $50K is not affordable for most people, many Americans can't afford a $20K vehicle much less a $50K car.

Many Americans can't afford a new car, they drive used cars, some do not have the credit to qualify for an affordable purchase/lease, some the income, all kinds of reasons.

It will be years for enough used cars to infiltrate the market with this tech.

The Tech may well be there, but the market will take time to accept it, not only from a personal desire to own your own taxi, but from affordability in both production and purchase price.

And VR was merely the gateway for AR. Augmented Reality (AR) is here as well. It will be huge for my company (construction).

That of course doesn't get around the fact that there are plenty of new technologies that have spectacularly flopped.

I realize it's an endless back and forth, but, here we go.

I don't need to convince anyone it's coming. If you think the technology won't work and if you think all the major car companies investing huge money in this and in alternate revenue streams like Uber competitors is all a bunch of nothing, so be it. I believe GM when they say:

""General Motors' autonomous vehicles will be ready for commercial deployment, without human drivers, much sooner than widely expected (within quarters, not years)"

and

"GM's upcoming vehicle could be fully autonomous in "complex urban environments without a human backup driver.""

What I saw in the Tesla makes these statements completely reasonable.

quote:

Earlier someone posted that for only $50 K you could buy a Tesla with this tech, and if one things $50K is affordable for most people they are way off.

That was me. I said to add the tech to the base was only $10k.

That means in Tesla's lowest end car it would be about a $50k car. Tesla doesn't make cheap cars, but others do.

quote:

Many Americans can't afford a new car, they drive used cars, some do not have the credit to qualify for an affordable purchase/lease, some the income, all kinds of reasons.

It will be years for enough used cars to infiltrate the market with this tech.

I think you missed it. The idea is that you won't own a car in the future. It will all be Uber style with autonomous drivers.

The numbers come back on average about 1/5 the cost of owning your own car. I don't think everyone will buy their own autonomous unit. The rich will, but the major car manufacturers don't think most will. that's exactly why they are getting in the uber business; they expect to sell a lot fewer cars in the future.

if the 1/5 is true, that means I can ditch my truck and uber to work and save like $500/month. More actually. Even if my wife keeps her SUV, my ammo budget just went up!

I love my Segway, don't bring it into this shit show.

Americans will never give up their POV's, en masse, for an automotive escort service. Autonomous or not.

Personally owned automobile=freedom, and that will never change.

quote:

Originally posted by konata88:

In my opinion, even happy path will be challenging. Not sure these companies in pursuit of the almighty dollar will do any due diligence to exception handling.

Is this on the way to happy ending???

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:

quote:

Many Americans can't afford a new car, they drive used cars, some do not have the credit to qualify for an affordable purchase/lease, some the income, all kinds of reasons.

It will be years for enough used cars to infiltrate the market with this tech.

I think you missed it. The idea is that you won't own a car in the future. It will all be Uber style with autonomous drivers.

You really think most Americans will give up their cars and their freedom of movement for this autonomous garbage? Ha! Not this cowboy.

My newest (of four) vehicle is a 2009. Not because I don't want new and fancy - because I can't afford it.

This is all well and good for you folks shopping for $50,000+ Tesli. For those of us who can rarely scrape up $10K for a used truck, your utopian dream is a long ways off. Unless someone is magically going to give us all access to fancy cars and magically fix all the bad roads, and pave all the gravel roads, etc. It just isn't going to happen very fast.

I'll agree that SOME people might own self driving cars 10 years from now. I completely disagree that they will be commonplace. They will still be the vast minority.

I'm also one of those who love to drive and will e reluctant to give in.

I'm also one of those who live in the country and will be nowhere near any concentration of ubers or taxis or whatever...

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:
I think you missed it. The idea is that you won't own a car in the future. It will all be Uber style with autonomous drivers.

The numbers come back on average about 1/5 the cost of owning your own car. I don't think everyone will buy their own autonomous unit. The rich will, but the major car manufacturers don't think most will. that's exactly why they are getting in the uber business; they expect to sell a lot fewer cars in the future.

if the 1/5 is true, that means I can ditch my truck and uber to work and save like $500/month. More actually. Even if my wife keeps her SUV, my ammo budget just went up!

You can do that right now, which I alluded to earlier, Uber Exists, Taxis Exist, you can get rid of your vehicles, eliminate insurance, gas costs, etc and just call Uber on your Cell.

Why invest a dollar in a $50K driver less car as a purchaser when you can achieve your stated goals by dumping your vehicles now.

FYI not everyone has the same goals as you...

I said you were full of yourself after the first couple passive aggressive questions, "do you understand the technology". I suspect plenty of people on this forum understand the technology better than you do, hence the snarky response. Make sense?

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:

quote:

Many Americans can't afford a new car, they drive used cars, some do not have the credit to qualify for an affordable purchase/lease, some the income, all kinds of reasons.

It will be years for enough used cars to infiltrate the market with this tech.

I think you missed it. The idea is that you won't own a car in the future. It will all be Uber style with autonomous drivers.

You really think most Americans will give up their cars and their freedom of movement for this autonomous garbage? Ha! Not this cowboy.

dunno. It would get me to ditch my car. I'd provably keep my wife's for the time being. Mine gets me to work and back. Maybe lunch and a job site during the day. off site meetings too.

If I can uber around for cheap, I'd have no issue with that. If it would restrict my freedom of movement, that would be a serious problem and I wouldn't get rid of my car. If it made no impact on my movement, I'd be all for it.

The millennial are a bigger generation that the Boomers. What they will pay for is what matters. I'm a Gen-X'er, I'm not even their target market. I have three cousins who are millennial...NONE of them own a car. they Uber everywhere they go. They think a car is stupid and a waste of money. That's nuts to me, but it's what they are doing.

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:

You can do that right now, which I alluded to earlier, Uber Exists, Taxis Exist, you can get rid of your vehicles, eliminate insurance, gas costs, etc and just call Uber on your Cell.

.

I can't, that's the problem. Taxis and Uber are unreliable in my town. That's where the autonomous comes in.

Again guys, I'm just following what these massive, massive car companies are doing.

If this is so far fetched and crazy, why are companies like GM and Ford investing so heavily into autonomous vehicles AND competitors to Uber? Ford has never been in the taxi business, now they are. Doesn't that send some signal that they are worried about this?

If this is so crazy and stupid, they wouldn't be competing with Uber. They've obviously studied this more than any of us and think it is possible and would cripple their business if they don't act.