quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
I don't lease now why would a lifetime of ownership mentality change now? Answer, it won't.

Hate to break it to you, but it’s not your lifetime the car and tech industries are banking on.

It's going to happen. It will become the norm. Humans behind the wheel and thinking that they are control will phase out. Those of us who scoff and stand defiant...we're just another example of 'old think' that will ultimately die off and no longer be in the way of "progress". Just like internal combustion engines will vanish. It will happen.

But the oft-clueless techgeeks who dream up this shit never could really protect themselves and their 'game-changing' inventions from hackers and viruses and ransomware, either.

In 20 years from now I frankly wouldn't mind using an autonomous car. If I'm still alive, that is. I saw what my parents went through, how they could no longer go where they wanted without the help and aid and kindness of others. By then, if not sooner, I'll take my chances with the damn robot. So many of us carbon-based biologicals are today already vegetables behind the wheel as it is anyways. I can suck up my pride if it means that I get to where I need to go.

But it wouldn't hurt if I could talk the robot into doing some opposite lock power slides. Jus' sayin'...

Well unless you are reading a different thread, yes they are. I never said it will never happen. I am quite clearly pushing back against this thread which claims we will see a "horse and buggy" moment in time very shortly. A ten year window was mentioned. So you are not arguing the premise of this thread imo.

Once I'm dead I'm sure you will all be driving cars that turn into helicopters and never go on vacation you will just activate the pleasure chip inserted in your noggin. But until then, the vast majority of us will drive our cars and leave "driverless" to some pristine chipped roads in California with guys driving ridiculously pricey, overly maintained electric cars from charging station to charging station.

quote:

Originally posted by soggy_spinout:
It's going to happen. It will become the norm. Humans behind the wheel and thinking that they are control will phase out. Those of us who scoff and stand defiant...we're just another example of 'old think' that will ultimately die off and no longer be in the way of "progress". Just like internal combustion engines will vanish. It will happen.

But the oft-clueless techgeeks who dream up this shit never could really protect themselves and their 'game-changing' inventions from hackers and viruses and ransomware, either.

In 20 years from now I frankly wouldn't mind using an autonomous car. If I'm still alive, that is. I saw what my parents went through, how they could no longer go where they wanted without the help and aid and kindness of others. By then, if not sooner, I'll take my chances with the damn robot. So many of us carbon-based biologicals are today already vegetables behind the wheel as it is anyways. I can suck up my pride if it means that I get to where I need to go.

But it wouldn't hurt if I could talk the robot into doing some opposite lock power slides. Jus' sayin'...

"Old think"?

Tell me how a computer can navigate my local dirt roads during mud season when the locals with 50 years of first hand experience can barely do it. Never going to happen on a wide scale. Just isn't. You can never program it to handle everything possible. Like I said, the human brain is way more complex and give it the experiences that it had the opportunity to learn from and it can never be matched.

It might become the norm in big cities but that's it. Guaranteed. the real world is full of too many unknowns.

quote:

Originally posted by Jus228:
Tell me how a computer can navigate my local dirt roads during mud season when the locals with 50 years of first hand experience can barely do it.

Oh... I don't know. Maybe fix the road.

Go watch the Tesla video on their own website. It is a nice day. The roads are impeccably groomed. Sharp double yellow lines everywhere, beautiful test site.

Do you know what I noticed? Not a single left turn against traffic. Every single turn was at a stop sign or traffic signal. Know what else caught my eye? Car came up on two ladies walking on the shoulder. Car came to a complete stop. Would you have done that?

Mind you this is the video they chose to portray as the perfect test hop.

I also looked into their tech. You guys challenged me on that so I did. Combo of radar, gps, and optics. I have the optics on my car. Works great, keeps car right behind next car, brakes, accelerates, etc. You know one thing that kicks it off? If the window fogs up at all. You defrost and then it comes back.

My point is there are a bunch of little, everyday things that confound computer systems and require human input. It really is that simple.

A handful of Teslas in sunny California isn't shit.

Put 1000 of them on I70, just West of the Eisenhower Tunnel, in January, and see what happens, or any one of a thousand similar situations of inclement weather, inconsistent road conditions, and a boatload of other human drivers from all over the country.

Put even 10 of them anywhere where snow covers the lines in the road, or there are mountain passes and areas with no cell service and inconsistent GPS coverage.

I'm not scared. I'm a realist, and a technology professional, and simply a natural skeptic.

I guarantee you I can break one in a single day, in any one of a hundred scenarios.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
Go watch the Tesla video on their own website. It is a nice day. The roads are impeccably groomed. Sharp double yellow lines everywhere, beautiful test site.

Do you know what I noticed? Not a single left turn against traffic. Every single turn was at a stop sign or traffic signal. Know what else caught my eye? Car came up on two ladies walking on the should. Car came to a complete stop. Would you have done that?

Mind you this is the video they chose to portray as the perfect test hop.

I also looked into their tech. You guys challenged me on that so I did. Combo of radar, gps, and optics. I have the optics on my car. Works great, keeps car right behind next car, brakes, accelerates, etc. You know one thing that kicks it off? If the window fogs up at all. You defrost and then it comes back.

My point is there are a bunch of little, everyday things that confound computer systems and require human input. It really is that simple.

How much of what you saw in that video could have been done ten years ago? You don't think they'll have figured it out ten years from now?

Oh, I don't know fix the road? Flippant much. Lol

If you fixed every road in America to the standards needed for this tech and kept them fixed it would be a trillion dollar project. Without end.

This tech will eventually end up in cities and metro areas where they will pay the $$$ to keep the roads striped, chipped, embedded, computer proofed, etc. outside of that? Probably not so much.

Hell, I live in Maryland and pay exorbitant taxes and many of the roads around here aren't even striped. No shoulders. Poor conditions. Menlo Park is where this will thrive.

This is going to be great!
You can be drunk as a lord and your car can get you home! Happy Days Are Here Again.

I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know. Here's what I do know. If you are completely convinced that their hype, err their facts, are on your side of this argument then by all means go long on Tesla stock. (Bad advice, Tesla stock is completely out of whack with reality)

It is crazy easy to become overly enamored with tech. It's cool, it's new, it promises all kinds of new realities. It has downsides though. The phone and computer analogies are relevant up to a point. For the most part they can't kill you. The driverless car can, has, and will. They will probably always mandate an actual driver no matter how good the tech. Somebody has to be there to blame in an accident and more importantly to unfuck the computer occasionally.

Not flippant at all. From your description, that road sounds like a genuine hazard. Also, I don't think it's too much to ask that we as a country keep our roads maintained and safe.


Aside from that, I find it interesting that the best a lot of you guys can do is come up with the 1%, or .1%, or .01% scenarios of failure based on tech that isn't remotely in wide use. You had to reach for a road only 50 year locals could drive in the rainy season.

Reminds me of the arguments the Anti's use against CCW.

quote:

Car came up on two ladies walking on the should. Car came to a complete stop.

Did it ask if they wanted to party? Perhaps Tesla has a subroutine for special circumstances.

I'd like to see the programmers version of my dad's 1994 Chevy 1500 that he has used on the cattle farm he manages. Ruts, groundhog holes, and other mysterious sink holes that pop up over the course of a winter. Hills get steeper due to erosion. Rocks that weren't sticking out of the ground now do, again because of erosion. How much is the government going to pay the boss man to bulldoze the place flat so that a little bit of unnecessary tech can "help" the population make it safely up the road while becoming evermore lazy?

As to the non-ownership of these cars: Taxi's work....in cities, where there is nearly instant turnover. Out here where I live, I might see 1-2 taxi's a month, and that's because some drunkard needs to make it to court. Lots of folks still live outside of major metropolitan areas where the concept of a Taxi is downright idiotic.

Also, who cleans up the mess after a drunk shits himself or pukes all over the back seat? Is this new car supposed to be self cleaning like an oven or dishwasher, because I have been in a taxi once before and that thing was RIPE! How about all the other DNA that gets left behind?

This shit is a wet dream for those that spend hours commuting instead of sleeping in. For the rest of the country, it sounds like a stoner somewhere on the left coast needs yet another iDevice to help them live their lives!

quote:

Originally posted by Spokane228:
Aside from that, I find it interesting that the best a lot of you guys can do is come up with the 1%, or .1%, or .01% scenarios of failure based on tech that isn't remotely in wide use. You had to reach for a road only 50 year locals could drive in the rainy season.

Reminds me of the arguments the Anti's use against CCW.

I find it interesting that you are using the same argument that lefties do regarding getting rid of the Electoral College. If only for those damn rednecks and hillbillies out in the middle of the nowhere, nobody cares about, then we could have our way!!!

What? Horseless carriages are an abomination!

Air machines will never amount to anything.

What? Putting 50 people in an airplane to travel from city to city? Never work. What if it crashes?

Building cars that go over 40mph? Why, what's the point?

Why would people fly over the ocean on a plane with only 2 engines? Never gonna happen.

Why would anyone want a phone that can run apps? I'll never use that!

A reusable rocket that lands on a pad? Ha! Good luck with that.

For crying out loud, you guys act like it's an impossible task or would never be adopted.

Whether you like it or not, it is something that both bindustry and the gov't want to figure out.

Give it time.

Whatever. If you watched the video, you didn't (I bet), you see a pristine example of American roadways. For every example of roadway like that I can show you multiples of roadway in much worse condition. How's that for .01, .1, or 1%?

You don't have to venture far out of a Silicon Valley to find shitty roads year round. Not just in the sticks either.

What you tech guys fail to acknowledge is that this tech is also dependent on infrastructure. Simple things like well defined markings, traffic signals, and road repair. None of which tech has any control over.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
Whatever. If you watched the video, you didn't (I bet), you see a pristine example of American roadways. For every example of roadway like that I can show you multiples of roadway in much worse condition. How's that for .01, .1, or 1%?

You don't have to venture far out of a Silicon Valley to find shitty roads year round. Not just in the sticks either.

What you tech guys fail to acknowledge is that this tech is also dependent on infrastructure. Simple things like well defined markings, traffic signals, and road repair. None of which tech has any control over.

That is the argument of this thread. Guys are claiming a horse and buggy moment in the next decade. Do think widespread driverless cars in 10 years? Yes or no. Simple question. This isn't a flat earth society meeting this is an argument of time tables. I think the optimistic timetable is waaaay off.

The tech will exist long before the infrastructure and the mindset makes it feasible.

Some of y'all need to seriously read up on what is happening in technology. Machine learning is insane and has real applications here.

Machine learning....put a bunch of parts of in front of a dozen robots who have no idea what to do with the parts except that they need to assemble them into something.

They go through constant trial and errors of fitting things together. They wirelessly teach each other what works and doesn't work. In a short amount of time they figure it out and they all assemble the "thing."

Cars will machine learn fellas. We don't need to program them for everything.

Machine learning is real and is happening now. Technology is expanding exponentially, not linearly. The implications are insane. For example, in less than 20 years, exponential tech growth for $1,000 you will be able to buy a processor that has the computing power of the human brain (about 15 log operations per second).

In less than 50, the same $1,000 will buy you the computing power of two earths worth of human brains...and these computers will be teaching each other.

I realize that people who haven't been following whats going on find this impossible, but the growth of tech has been astonishing and no one sees it slowing down anytime soon.

I assure you, an autonomous car will be much better prepared to handle your crazy back roads than you are. They will learn cars all over the world driving crazy roads, what worked, what didn't, etc. You only have yourself and your Dad to learn from.

Is it scary? Yes of course it is, but it's coming. GM and Ford have both announced they are getting into the Uber game. They are doing this because they are themselves predicting the decline of personal automobile ownership.

To the gentlemen who said Americans want a car for freedom...you have one car, maybe two or three. For the cost of say 20% of what you spend for your car, you can access to any size or type of car you need. It will simply become too expensive to own your own. Again, if this line of thinking is so wrong, why are GM and Ford getting ready to compete with Uber?

Obviously I'm a believer in this. We really don't know what the future holds at all. What I would respectfully submit is that it is very clear that some folks in this are responding out of emotion or gut reaction and they clearly are not aware of where the tech is to make this possible.

Machine learning is crazy shit fellas! It sounds like Sky Net, but these machines are already teaching each other. Honestly research the tech in these areas and it might change your opinion.

Machines break, even the learning ones.