Rey, as I recall in previous threads you liked your financial advisor outfit, what happened?

Glad you have seen the light. But be careful. Your explanation of what you are doing seems risky in this environment. Surely you know what you are doing though

Maybe explain it in more detail.

ORC,

I think a good way to go about it is to research online with several sources for things like "best ETF recession". Once you find one that looks promising, Fidelity FUTY fund, for example, cross check it by looking at reports from several online sources. Funds, mostly, should be accurately reported.

Individual stocks are more easily manipulated by entities that own news sources. That can result in "pump and dump" schemes.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Rey, as I recall in previous threads you liked your financial advisor outfit, what happened?

Glad you have seen the light. But be careful. Your explanation of what you are doing seems risky in this environment. Surely you know what you are doing though

Maybe explain it in more detail.

I liked my financial advisor (Fisher Investments) when they were getting okay returns for me and, additionally, they offer data analysis and educational research materials. But I realize I was paying them close to 1.25% in fees for being simply in an index fund. They use the MSCI World Index as their benchmarks and they make puts and takes against that benchmark depending on what sectors they think will lead or lag and what countries will lead or lag. I expected them to be more active in that it would have been a no-brainer action for them to get out of long-term bonds in my portfolio given the inflation and Fed talks about raising interest rates.

I knew I was a lousy stock picker even with my MBA and subscriptions to expensive investment advice newsletters so back in 2008 I gave that job to my wife since my job was killing me at the time also. In 2017, I quit working and hired Fisher Investments but kept a portion in my control. I went with Motley Fool and a couple of other investment advice services. They did great for me but I realize now that in a rising stock market, any stock is bound to go up. Recent months have shown that doesn't apply in a period of turmoil.

So, yeah, I'm a slow learner and I've finally decided to just stick to a stock market index ETF investing strategy. It's going to be split between fixed income and equities and the mix will depend on how many years will I need the money. For money I won't need until 16 years or longer, it'll be 85% equities and 15% fixed income. And the ratios will adjust for money I'll need closer. I'll also allow for adjustments based on where the market cycle is. For example, in the current period, I'm not going to buy long term bonds but will rely on staggered bond ladders. For the equity, I'm going to buy defensive sectors like utility, consumer staples, and healthcare etfs. When we start recovering which is when most pessimism exist, I'll go to the whole US stock stock with an additional portion in small cap etfs, etc. This strategy I developed from the market research that Fisher has been giving me. My only take against them is they don't act on any of their information and, like I said, relying more on following the index.

One of the insights I have now is to just go US ETFs alone instead of having an International portion. You compare the Whole US market versus the world and the international portion only drags the returns down. Besides, US companies get a good portion of their revenue overseas anyway.

But I've come around to believing John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard index funds who believe investing in the broad market at the lowest costs gives better performance in the long term than any actively managed portfolio.

ok Rey, thanks for the info. Wow, 85% in equities in this market, double wow.

If only i was in my twenties.

"Market cycle" sounds like another way to say "timing the market"

Wish you the best.

Surely you know what you are doing.

I made the mistake of checking on my 401k the other day Down about 12% ytd

I am a newb to stocks, I only started investing in them about a year ago. I'm about even with the mix of winners and losers I picked, I will still buy some perceived bargains as this economy takes a dive and hold on to the losers for the long haul

What Rey did and experienced just proves the statement I made a while back about these employees of a company being the ones who picked your stocks and handled your money.

I'll say it again: If they really knew how to do it, they wouldn't be employees, they'd be self employed.

quote:

I am a newb to stocks, I only started investing in them about a year ago. I'm about even with the mix of winners and losers I picked, I will still buy some perceived bargains as this economy takes a dive and hold on to the losers for the long haul

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I would not hold on to losers for the long haul. I am not saying to sell now, but holding onto losers is not a good strategy. You sell your losers and hold onto winners.

Most of the loss is from what's currently going on with the world and the economy, I believe they will come back, someday

quote:

Originally posted by BigSwede:
Most of the loss is from what's currently going on with the world and the economy, I believe they will come back, someday

I guarantee you they'll come back, it's merely a matter of when.

I'm guessing right after the midterms it'll take off again.

Anyone use Fisher Investments?

Oh yeah... something Im thinking about.

I-Bonds. Inflation indexed bonds.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/0...-your-portfolio.html

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
READ SEVERAL POSTS ABOVE YOURS!

At 70 I am have about 30 percent invested in stocks via stock funds/ETFs and the rest in MM, ultra short term bonds, stable value funds, and whatever bonds are managed in my balanced funds such as Vanguard Wellington and Vanguard Wellesley Income funds.

Yeah it sucks when both go down but with dividend and captital gains reinvestment the funds can buy more shares when the price become cheaper. Young wife is still working and with her 401K her contributions are also buying more shares when prices are cheaper.

Temptation to sell can become very high when seeing prices dropping daily but it helps to remember why I am investing in the first place and am I still confidennt in my plan/investments that has dome well for me over time looking at comparisons to 5/10/20 years ago.

As alwys one needs to evaluate their tolerance for risk and their goals and balance the risk associated with their investment mix accordingly taking into account their age too. For me at my age sleeping well at night during a volitale market is important.



.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
ok Rey, thanks for the info. Wow, 85% in equities in this market, double wow.

If only i was in my twenties.

"Market cycle" sounds like another way to say "timing the market"

Wish you the best.

Surely you know what you are doing.

85% Equity / 15% Fixed Income is only for money that i'll need 16 years out at the soonest. You can check the historical lengths of bear markets and see how long it took them to recover.

And since I'm in all cash now, I can dollar cost average into the market and Vanguard has VFMV which is the US Low Volatility stocks.

For money I'll need inside of 12 months, it's 100% fixed income. For money I'll need in a year or two years, it's 10% equity (low volatility) and 90% fixed income.

Market cycle isn't trying to guess where the market is going but where we are now. So in this period where we're coming off low interest rates and current high inflation, as I said, it's a no-brainer to get out of long-term bonds because it doesn't take a guess to figure bonds will be going down in value as interest rates go up.

I don't have to guess that we're in a period of high volatility where growth stocks are taking a beating so a safer bet while still being in the stock market is to get into low volatility stocks which thankfully, Vanguard has already captured in an etf.

I've tried all kinds of strategies except this one using broad market index ETFs. It's not like I came up with the idea either. And it does make sense.

I liken it to realizing conservatism is a more logical philosophy than leftist liberalism.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo Jones:
Anyone use Fisher Investments?

Oh yeah... something Im thinking about.

I-Bonds. Inflation indexed bonds.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/0...-your-portfolio.html

I had them for 5 years up until April 23, 2022 so like last week. They're basically an index fund that masquerades as an actively managed fund for a 1.25% yearly fee. They have great research and insights but they don't have the balls to act on what their data tells them.

For example, early January, they came up with a historical analysis of the stock market in the 2nd year term of US Presidents. Their chart shows a basically flat line until the end of Q3 but with lots of ups and downs through the first three quarters.

I saw that and thought why should I stay in the market for relatively flat returns while exposing myself to volatility? So the part of my portfolio I control, I cashed out in January 13. They had me and everyone else stayed invested in the same holdings. I saved 20% in the weeks following. My Fisher portfolio that they controlled lost enough that the 50% return over 5 years I had in October 21, became less than 30% return over 5 years by the last week of March. Did I expect them to cash out everybody's equity positions like I did? No, but they could have definitely moved us to low volatility stocks.

Oil.

The bigger the names the safer the bet. My opinion only, but I think most will make 20-30% higher share prices by the end of summer.

Don't try to sue me if I'm wrong, I admit the possibility up front here and now.

This is interesting in that mortgage rates have skyrocketed since the first of the year due to the crashing bond market. This will have a negative effect on the economy too as the housing market cools off drastically and refinancing becomes much less attractive option to cash out on home equity. I imagine car loan rates have gone up quite a bit too.

I had no idea as we have not had a mortgage since paying off the ranch about 10 yesrs back.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news...using-163507651.html

********************************************

"Mortgage rates hit highest level in 13 years and could cool housing market.

Mortgage rates hit their highest level since August 2009 this week, following a sharp increase in the 10-year Treasury yield and continuing a breakneck ascent since the start of 2022.

The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 5.27%, up from 5.10% last week, according to Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates have climbed over a half-point in the last four weeks and are up 2 percentage points from the start of the year.

The rapid increase in rates — tied to the Federal Reserve’s moves to hike interest rates to curb inflation — may be finally cooling the once-blistering hot housing market as affordability challenges become untenable for buyers.

“While housing affordability and inflationary pressures pose challenges for potential buyers, house price growth will continue but is expected to decelerate in the coming months,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist."

Mortgage rates have been artificially repressed for a long long time. The federal funds rate has been artificially near cost zero for political reasons.

Eventually you have to pay the tab.



They want you broke. They want your home. You will own nothing and be happy about it.

My goodness!

As far as the stock market is concerned, today is Stink-O de Mayo!

I sure wish I had some Bit Coin!

quote:

Originally posted by Hay2bale:
My goodness!

As far as the stock market is concerned, today is Stink-O de Mayo!

I sure wish I had some Bit Coin!

Wut?

Bitcoin is -6.7% today

while the Dow is down -2.87%
the NASDAQ at -4.7%

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
Mortgage rates have been artificially repressed for a long long time. The federal funds rate has been artificially near cost zero for political reasons.

Eventually you have to pay the tab.



They want you broke. They want your home. You will own nothing and be happy about it.

Yep, and government debt is going to skyrocket too with increased rates on debt payment of "around" $20,000,000,000,000, but no one seems to care. I wonder what percentage of total taxes collected by the feds will go to just service the debt in 2022 and how that will compare to years past.