The Lear Jet that augured in today near Mar a Lago.

I heard the ATC audio. Wish I hadn't. If you want to hear the last words of a young woman who knows she's about to die, go ahead, but I'm recommending you not do so.

Why am I posting this? To get ahead of this, and to say that everyone should refrain from posting the audio, or even link to anything that links to the audio. I don't want it here. It's gonna stay with me for a while. Yes, I've heard worse, and so have you. Doesn't matter. Don't post it here.

Secondly, there are the typical conspiracy whackos who are saying this was an attack on President Trump due to the crash in proximity to Mar a Lago. IOW, the usual stupid, mindless horse shit from imbeciles. This is something else you don't want to post here. This was a plane crash due to loss of control, probably an icing situation according to more than one pilot.

If you want to discuss it, go ahead, but heed the above, and woe unto the member who fails to do so.

I wish I had just read the transcript and not actually listened to the recording.

Thank you for the warning. I chose to read the transcript instead of listening to the audio. The text was difficult enough.

From the still shots it doesn't appear to have horizontal stabilizers. I'd guess that could cause the uncontrolled dive, but why would they come off? Bad turbulence? Bad maintenance?

Either way, heartbreaking. Nine souls gone...just like that.

According to these extremely early and possibly inaccurate reports, the crew reported encountering icing and precipitation at 35,000 feet. That is unusually high for either one. The thunderstorms would be the obvious hazard that brought them down.

Terrible for all involved.

Para,
I have not heard an audio released so fast after a crash. Is this normal?

Very sad event Question for any pilot or anyone that knows. I heard and read that they were descending at 20K feet per minute. That is only about 230mph correct ?? However I believe overspeed was mentioned. So I am confused. Thank you for any information or explanation. God Bless

There are online ATC radio scanners that both stream and record/archive radio communications with Air Traffic Control on public frequencies.

It likely originated from one of those.

The audio is chilling. Video isn’t much better.
The Pilot knows what’s about to happen, and it’s happening way quicker than anyone can imagine.
The video that’s out there looks like a rocket hit.

No doubt this accident will be on the blancolirio youtube channel in a day or two. He's known for factual, no drama assessments. I'll refrain from speculation and await his analysis.

quote:

Originally posted by VBVAGUY:

Question for any pilot or anyone that knows. I heard and read that they were descending at 20K feet per minute. That is only about 230mph correct ?? However I believe overspeed was mentioned. So I am confused

Easiest way to explain that is to draw an analogy. Imagine a truck that has lost its brakes coming down a mountain. Forward speed might be well over 100mph, but the rate of altitude loss would be nowhere near that.

quote:

Originally posted by VBVAGUY:
Very sad event Question for any pilot or anyone that knows. I heard and read that they were descending at 20K feet per minute. That is only about 230mph correct ?? However I believe overspeed was mentioned. So I am confused. Thank you for any information or explanation. God Bless

That plane was probably approaching mach 1. The most likely assumption someone could make just from the audio and ADS-B data is a stall at full thrust causing an uncontrolled banking dive. It is my understanding that it is very difficult to recover from something like that. I'm very much looking forward to Juan Browne's analysis.

I listened to the audio when it first popped up. Not for the faint of heart. God bless to those onboard.

quote:

Originally posted by VBVAGUY:
Very sad event Question for any pilot or anyone that knows. I heard and read that they were descending at 20K feet per minute. That is only about 230mph correct ?? However I believe overspeed was mentioned. So I am confused. Thank you for any information or explanation. God Bless

That's the vertical speed, which is different than its total speed. A normal descent might be 3000 feet per minute descent rate but with a forward speed of 400-500 mph. So the angle of the descent is shallow. Or, in a vertical dive the vertical speed would be the same as the total speed.

In this event we have the reports from one of the pilots and the calculated rate from raw altitude data reported by the transponder. The latter is very approximate and is not well synchronized to the radar plot, especially in extreme situations. It is quite possible that their vertical rate of descent was much greater than either of those two sources tell us. We don't know when they oversped or when their descent rate was any specific number.

In addition, at the top of this sequence they may have oversped prior to the steepest dive. There are 2 speed limitations, one being the indicated airspeed in knots, the other being mach number. The higher you are the more hemmed in you are by max mach number. You can't go much faster before exceeding that number. *technical details: the speed of sound depends only on air temperature. It is very cold up high, so the speed of sound gets much slower. Speed is referenced against Mach 1, e.g. 0.85 is 85% of the speed of sound.

The female pilot reported 600 feet per minute climb or descent rate, meaning a pretty strong up or down draft. She didn't specify which. They were in a very challenging condition being so high with such strong up and/or down drafts. If an up draft, normally one would pitch down to keep from climbing, but that increases speed. Thus they may have oversped their max mach number in an updraft before losing control and diving.

According to the radar plot online, which may be inaccurate, they only climbed about 400 feet after they requested to climb from 35,000 to 37,000. Then they began a descent. A detailed look at the real radar data will help resolve the likely initiating reason they lost control. They did fly into a thunderstorm and experienced all the bad stuff a cell can throw at you.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:


That plane was probably approaching mach 1. The most likely assumption someone could make just from the audio and ADS-B data is a stall at full thrust causing an uncontrolled banking dive. It is my understanding that it is very difficult to recover from something like that.

High altitude stall recovery is a bitch. Pitch changes are large, and the airspeed changes rapidly. Large control inputs as well as power changes are needed. At 35,000 feet, the window between minimum speed (aerodynamic stall) and max speed is small. Any change in G loading makes a big change in those two limits, too. The initial recovery of pitching down aggressively can be successful, but then pulling out of the dive at high altitude can induce another stall at a high speed.

Add in whatever strong turbulence and up/down drafts the thunderstorm was giving them, plus perhaps ice on the aircraft, and it is a really bad situation.

A few months ago I grabbed these pics of a large storm off our starboard side of the plane. The pilot informed us that we were diverting far wide of it because those storm cells were well into the 40,000ft range, and going over it wqs impossible. We were delayed a bit, but no one cared. Seems these were the type of storms over Florida today. You just can't fly above that.

Oh no.

CBS evening news has a dash cam video of the jet slamming into the ground. The dash camera was very close by, maybe a block away.

They are reporting 9 people on board.

I’m not going to link it. You can find it if you want.
.

It's unfortunate that the audio is out there. If it was something on a CVR, it might take months to get released, if it ever was, but ATC audio pulled out of the sky just exists.

It's hard to listen to but imagine if you knew anybody on that plane, particularly the pilot on the radio.

I've watched all the videos released.

I'm amazed the people in the Cadillac survived. All the glass is blown out and airbags deployed as the jet went in mere feet from it.

The video from the trailer park, there isn't a piece of plane bigger than your fist.

I have no desire to see or hear anything that horrific. No plane crashes executions, accidents any of it..

I live about 2 miles from where it hit, storms at that time were very powerful, we also heard a rolling thunder boom that just did not end, it went on for about 20 seconds.

It went for so long my son and I were watching TV and just stared at each other and without speaking he hit mute on the tv and we were listening it get quieter and quieter, but it just kept going. I have to think this was a sonic boom, not thunder.

Horrible tragedy.