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Purveyor of Death
and Destruction
Picture of walker77
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China uses a piss poor copy of a Russian jet engine that is severely under powered. Add that to the fact they use ski jumps instead of catapults means they can only take off with a very small payload and fuel.
 
Posts: 7420 | Location: Raymore, Missouri | Registered: June 24, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
FWLIW, I've been reading "Japan 1941" by Eri Hotta lately. There are some parallels between the way Japan stumbled into a fight with us in WWII and the way China is stumbling around the western Pacific now. I don't read tea leaves any better than anyone else does, but I'm starting to wonder whether the PRC is going to find itself forcing us into war against it while trying to expand in a way that avoids having to go to war with us.

Are you postulating that the PRC, in order to continue to satisfy the demand for natural resources, keep their population satiated, not to mention satisfy their deep-down desire to return to being imperialistic hegemon's, they'll need to attack the US to keep us from influencing the Western Pacific?
 
Posts: 15379 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just because you can,
doesn't mean you should
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
FWLIW, I've been reading "Japan 1941" by Eri Hotta lately. There are some parallels between the way Japan stumbled into a fight with us in WWII and the way China is stumbling around the western Pacific now. I don't read tea leaves any better than anyone else does, but I'm starting to wonder whether the PRC is going to find itself forcing us into war against it while trying to expand in a way that avoids having to go to war with us.

Are you postulating that the PRC, in order to continue to satisfy the demand for natural resources, keep their population satiated, not to mention satisfy their deep-down desire to return to being imperialistic hegemon's, they'll need to attack the US to keep us from influencing the Western Pacific?



I suspect they're thinking out of the box to a more up to date solution.
The Wuhu Flu has done all that and more whether intentional or not and I'm sure they have taken notice of the effect on their adversaries.
Someone (the US, Israel?) destroyed Iranian nuclear stuff with software code changes slipped into the works, not bunker busters.
A true superpower confrontation could be over in hours in today's world without involving airplanes or gunpowder. Battleships, aircraft carriers and tanks are for throwing your weight around against uppity third world countries you want to put in their place.
We likely don't even know what's out there and won't, only to be used when and if really needed.


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Posts: 10119 | Location: NE GA | Registered: August 22, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of wrightd
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quote:
Originally posted by 92fstech:
quote:
Of course, they will get better and improve their technology and trained manpower pool, but of course during this same time period, so will we.


Will we? I hope we will, but I'm concerned that we as a nation are becoming very complacent. When China got their first carrier, it was viewed as a joke. Now they're building more, and presumably learning from their mistakes. Yeah, we're ahead, but we won't stay ahead if we don't take the threat seriously. And from the political pressure on our military to emphasize political correctness over warfighting, my confidence in our effectiveness is rapidly eroding. Yes, we have the best people in the world, but how long does that last with defective leadership?

My other concern is that the Chinese have vast manufacturing capability and manpower. We used to have that, but these days we don't hold a candle to the volume that China can produce. Sure our quality is better, but the Germans had a lot of stuff that was better than ours in WW2...we just overwhelmed them with our production and logistical capability. Heck, we can't even make enough ammo to keep this county supplied in peacetime...what's going to happen if we go to war?And that's not even considering the divided political climate of our nation...do we still have what it takes as a nation to come together with the resolve to defeat an external enemy? I'm not sure I want to find out.

I don't think the scales have tipped in their favor yet, but IMO it's time to stop pointing and laughing at the Chinese and use that energy to whip our own butts into gear.

92fs, we must be mind melding. I've been worried about your exact same points for years. I fear you're right. With the level of stupid as high as it is these days, and seems to have been accellerating for some time now, I think we will eventually get caught with our pants down, and on MORE THAN ONE FRONT. The Reds are smart, but half our our political swamp dwellers are marxists, theives, and cowards.




Lover of the US Constitution
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Posts: 9225 | Location: Nowhere the constitution is not honored | Registered: February 01, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
Are you postulating that the PRC, in order to continue to satisfy the demand for natural resources, keep their population satiated, not to mention satisfy their deep-down desire to return to being imperialistic hegemon's, they'll need to attack the US to keep us from influencing the Western Pacific?

No, I think they believe that if they act aggressively enough they can force us to back down so that they can continue to expand their presence around the world without having to go to war with us, but if they act aggressively enough we will feel compelled to stand up to them so we and our allies don't get rolled over. By that point, if there is a parallel and it holds, the PRC will think it has to follow through both because they'll have committed themselves to the point that they don't have any choice and because our standing up for ourselves will scare the hell out of them.
 
Posts: 27322 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
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I don't think China's intent with its carriers is to go toe to toe with our carriers. The strategy is to keep us busy elsewhere. I forget the name of the strategy but the idea is if your enemy is superior in one area, you still can't just roll over and cede that part of the battle to them.

China's main strength is in the number of bodies they can deploy as boots on the ground. You can bet they have been taking notes on our playbook in the middle east.

When they decide to reunify the Taiwan Island back into China, their carrier will keep the our ships busy providing cover for their troop transports. Although, I'll be open to the possibility that Taiwan won't be their first target.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20438 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
fugitive from reality
Picture of SgtGold
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The Chinese have long relied on the human wave style of warfare, and this carries over to the digital warfare spectrum as well. What this points to is the importance of controlling the digital battle space and denying an enemy the ability to use said tactics against you.

quote:
Originally posted by Aglifter:
Bigger issue is:

B) I think the future is mass drones, and swarm tactics. War is economics, more or less, and I can’t see fighters and pilots winning that equation, in the near future. If they are designed to be adapted to launch clouds of drones, rather than fighters, I think they could be an issu.


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Posts: 7194 | Location: Newyorkistan | Registered: March 28, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of HayesGreener
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Carriers will always be needed to project worldwide power, but are not the be all and end all for the future. Think U.S. Space Force, when you have the capability to target and plink carriers from space they become less relevant.


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Posts: 4384 | Location: Florida Panhandle | Registered: September 27, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
China's main strength is in the number of bodies they can deploy as boots on the ground. You can bet they have been taking notes on our playbook in the middle east.


Of course, the Chinese have never valued life.

But I'm sure we have more bullets than they do lives.

Not sure why our military should be afraid of the Chinese. Since 9/11, we have had a generation raised in war, we are experienced at war. The Chinese? No. Not unless you count them killing unarmed people. I've read, cannot cite it now, though, we have over 3 million post 9/11 veterans. While many, maybe even most, of those have never experienced combat, many of them have deployed into combat operations multiple times. I have many close friends who have served 20-22 years while deploying 5-7 times to Iraq and Afghanistan during those invasions and surges.

The Chinese don't want this smoke from our military. The only question is whether our "elected" officials have the willingness to let our military display its full capabilities.


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Posts: 13400 | Registered: March 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
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quote:
Originally posted by Edmond:
The only question is whether our "elected" officials have the willingness to let our military display its full capabilities.


There’s that, too. The US cannot depend on any one thing to keep China in check. They have goals and they’ve been working towards those goals.

They can’t go toe to toe on the ocean and yet they invested on a carrier so as not to cede that area. While our soldiers may be more capable than theirs, they don’t to worry about their country’s will to continue sustaining casualties. On this front, they’ve been working in our politics and, no doubt, in our press. There’s also the purse strings angle of people benefiting from their commerce with China.

They’ve been very busy.

I’m not arguing with you about anything. I do like how this discussion caused my mind to zoom out and consider the big picture. I have no solution to offer. I certainly hope better minds will.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Rey HRH,



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20438 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Banned
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quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
Are they a theat, yes. Any platform that's able launch aircraft is a threat.
The PLAN are very new to the power projection game and on a steep learning curve on carrier ops. They certainly can put a LOT of hulls into the water quickly, however it remains to be seen how competent they are at sustaining that force from a logistics perspective and how good their training is, not to mention how to conduct operations. Carrier ops is crazy complex, as the British, French and Japanese have done exchange programs with the USN to learn how to run a carrier and/or keep concurrent on operations.
One of the obvious short-comings with the current PLAN air wing is the lack of airborne early warning aircraft, and lack of organic tanking. The primary aircraft the J-15 is enormous (think F-14 size) and has been plagued with problems, not to mention a shortage of pilots.
They had plans for a nuclear powered carrier however I understand that's been put on hold. Likely more related to the maxim of learning how to walk before running. The PLAN fleet in the past was guilty of too many different engineering systems thus, maintenance and training was a mess, not to mention the logistic complications.
Not to worry. If they have problems and need help I'm sure Chairman Biden will be happy (or forced) to help.
 
Posts: 1396 | Registered: August 25, 2018Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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