At some point I'll make a long-term investment in the total Australian market. Maybe DJAUS - Dow Jones Australia Small-Cap Index ?

But not just yet.

^^^ Why Australia?

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Originally posted by radioman:
^^^ Why Australia?

Because it's about time I did.

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:

quote:

Originally posted by sasquatch28:

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:

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Originally posted by sasquatch28:

I have 18 high quality dividend stocks on my watch list, even today 10 of the 18 are trading at a premium to what i consider fair value.

Any chance you'd care to share some of the ticker symbols. Always interested in how others think.

Nothing groundbreaking. Big companies with good to very good financials, that pay a dividend, and are expected to be in business for the foreseeable future.

JNJ
PG
ADP
MDT
GD
PEP
CVX
MMM
HD
MSFT
V
TXN
KO
AAPL
VZ
SO
D
HON


I have grown to hate mutual funds because I have little clue what, exactly, I am buying. Regrettably, my retirement plan at work only allows mutual funds.

I have found much more comfort trying to emulated the way Buffett and Munger look at their investments. I want good or great companies at a fair price.

JNJ goes down 20%? Big deal, I know what I own, and I can go look at their books. Barring total financial disaster, they will still be selling stuff to us in 15 years.

There will be some very good bargains to be had in the coming MONTHS.

I am no financial expert, just a guy who is willing to read and try to learn from others.

That's a great list. Thanks for sharing it. With regard to Mutual funds, I know what you mean. I've found the right index fund can be ok, like the index funds from Vanguard, or Fidelity. But yes, if you are locked into what your company offers, then that's that.

We are getting into valuations now where there are some long term bargains. I fully expect severe volatility in the coming months, but some of these rarely go on sale. I wish i had more dry powder.

I see the S&P bottoming about 1500-1700 and then a pretty rapid rise from there (6-9 months).

My opinion is based on:
1. The S&P500 financials being hurt by about 40% this year and a P/E multiple of about 15 when big money moves in and creates the bottom.
2. This is not a liquidity issue, it's a single cause that is affecting supply and demand.
3. The warmer months will decrease the spread of COVID-19 and the effects will decrease.

In the meantime, we have 70% in cash and will start moving in as the market retreats further and gets closer to entry point.

I do agree that the Fed going extreme so early reeks of desperation and makes people nervous.

The wife and I each have our own 401K. I had them set up with 20% Mutual funds and the rest in Government Bonds. I really didn't like what I could see on the horizon with this virus and the Dow was starting to fall so I sold off the stocks three weeks ago and put everything into those Bonds. We each have held our own (thank God) and I actually made $245 today after this 3000 dollar sell off.

I can't believe I might have actually done something right.

quote:

Originally posted by sasquatch28:
I would only mention that current and projected valuation is incredibly important. Many of the high quality companies are still marginally over valued compared to their historical average valuations.

There are some true bargains becoming apparent, but you need to know what you are buying and what are you paying for. I am willing to buy high quality company stock whenever the valuation falls below that historical norm, but i have to feel good about the future of the company.

I have 18 high quality dividend stocks on my watch list, even today 10 of the 18 are trading at a premium to what i consider fair value.

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

Not to revive the dead or dying thread, but just as a point of reference, and of warning, the recent "rebound" in the market has 16 of my 18 again above what I would consider fair value.

The actions of the Fed and Treasury at this point are exceptionally unprecedented. We are so far off the map from a governmental intervention standpoint that it is hard to find a foundation upon which to plan for the future.

I liken our current situation to a bucket of water (the "money" in our economy). There are holes in the bucket that leak water out all the time. Prior to the corona stuff, we were pretty close to equilibrium between the leaks and the water being poured in by the govt. Then, due to corona, we got a giant hole in the bucket, and the govt started pouring water in as fast as they could. One day, the corona hole will begin closing, but the water being poured in has already left the govt's pail.

The govt has chosen what they believe to be the lesser of two evils. Rather than letting water run the bucket close to empty (deflation) they are willing to risk dangerously overfilling the bucket (inflation).

The "market" is betting that the inflationary efforts are going to goose stock prices.