Is it time yet to buy certain stocks?

March 12, 2020, 04:39 PM

ryan81986

quote:
Originally posted by Sig209:
quote:
Originally posted by ryan81986:
Is Boeing a good bet though? I know they hit almost 400 a few years ago but they've only been above 300 for a couple years.

good question. For them it's like a triple whammy.

1. Their resolution to the issues with the 737 Max is not clearly defined. Big impact on future and pending orders.

2. They have a new CEO and there are the usual question marks around leadership changes.

3. The impact of Corona virus.

what is your time horizon for that investment ?

--------------------------------------------

20 years +. I've got a deferred compensation account which is separate from my pension. It has about 50k in it right now. And I've got about 30 years til retirement assuming I don't pull the pin early, but I'd like to pull the pin early.

March 12, 2020, 04:53 PM

Sig209

then a better question would be -- why are you NOT buying stocks ??

of course index ETFs will give you better diversification

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March 12, 2020, 05:04 PM

jimmy123x

quote:
Originally posted by ryan81986:
Is Boeing a good bet though? I know they hit almost 400 a few years ago but they've only been above 300 for a couple years.

No F’ing way. Aside from the 737 fiasco. WHO are their customers, airlines. The airline industry is hurt the hardest and many might go bankrupt. Most air lines are going to milk older planes, until first the economy gets rolling, then people start taking vacations again and then they recover what they lost.

The market is not going to rebound unless their is a clear sign that the corona virus won’t be too bad or there is a clear dwindling of it. Keep in mind the Russia/Saudi oil thing is putting downward pressure on the market too and it’s an election year.

March 12, 2020, 06:08 PM

ryan81986

Royal Caribbean looks promising. Currently at $30, averages at $150. No way they won't bounce back by December.

March 12, 2020, 06:30 PM

TAllen01

I don't believe we are the bottom yet. Wait until the effects on the supply chain and retail hit earnings news. I believe you will see another drop then. With everything shutting down, and no one going out, consumer spending is going to take a big hit, and that will be bad news.

March 12, 2020, 06:33 PM

LS1 GTO

quote:
Originally posted by ryan81986:
Is Boeing a good bet though? I know they hit almost 400 a few years ago but they've only been above 300 for a couple years.

Consider them with Northrop, Lockheed, Raytheon, and maybe Curtiss Wright (see the theme?). Solid performers over the long haul with Boeing in the best position for the biggest gains over the next 5 to 10 years.

And once Boeing gets the software issued figured, investors are going to realize the $$ value of the company's backlog.

March 12, 2020, 06:56 PM

doublesharp

I'm a long time investor and I bought 3 stocks last week. I'm a loser in all and the down streak isn't over apparently. I'm not buying anything else but I'm not selling so, in effect, that makes me a buyer of the stocks in my portfolio. The only thing I'd consider is blue chip dividend aristocrats. Interest rate is going to remain low for the foreseeable future so blue chippers that have a longtime track record of meeting/raising dividends are all I'm interested in.

March 12, 2020, 08:22 PM

radioman

If you look up SSO, it's the "Ultra S&P500" fund which tracks the S&P500 but multiplied by 2. If the S&P500 goes up 5%, this fund goes up 10%. (or down, as the case may be)

I personally bought some of this in 2009 or so and held it for a few months and I was quite happy with it.

Now, if you think the market is going down further, you can put your money where your mouth is and buy some SDS, which is a Bear ETF fund which goes up as the market goes down.

So, between SSO and SDS, you can make money whichever direction the market is going, the trick is timing it correctly, which I think is too risky, at least for me.

March 12, 2020, 09:26 PM

sasquatch28

I would only mention that current and projected valuation is incredibly important. Many of the high quality companies are still marginally over valued compared to their historical average valuations.

There are some true bargains becoming apparent, but you need to know what you are buying and what are you paying for. I am willing to buy high quality company stock whenever the valuation falls below that historical norm, but i have to feel good about the future of the company.

I have 18 high quality dividend stocks on my watch list, even today 10 of the 18 are trading at a premium to what i consider fair value.

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

March 12, 2020, 09:49 PM

radioman

quote:
Originally posted by sasquatch28:

I have 18 high quality dividend stocks on my watch list, even today 10 of the 18 are trading at a premium to what i consider fair value.

Any chance you'd care to share some of the ticker symbols. Always interested in how others think.

March 12, 2020, 09:54 PM

Edmond

One of my stocks jumped by 75% today. It's JDST. Kind of scared me

March 12, 2020, 09:59 PM

Skins2881

A second thread on the same topic and a 9th coranavirus thread, yea!

Buy Charmin, Purell, and Lysol. Short cruise ship companies and the service industry.

March 13, 2020, 07:08 AM

sasquatch28

quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
quote:
Originally posted by sasquatch28:

I have 18 high quality dividend stocks on my watch list, even today 10 of the 18 are trading at a premium to what i consider fair value.

Any chance you'd care to share some of the ticker symbols. Always interested in how others think.

Nothing groundbreaking. Big companies with good to very good financials, that pay a dividend, and are expected to be in business for the foreseeable future.

JNJ
PG
ADP
MDT
GD
PEP
CVX
MMM
HD
MSFT
V
TXN
KO
AAPL
VZ
SO
D
HON

I have grown to hate mutual funds because I have little clue what, exactly, I am buying. Regrettably, my retirement plan at work only allows mutual funds.

I have found much more comfort trying to emulated the way Buffett and Munger look at their investments. I want good or great companies at a fair price.

JNJ goes down 20%? Big deal, I know what I own, and I can go look at their books. Barring total financial disaster, they will still be selling stuff to us in 15 years.

There will be some very good bargains to be had in the coming MONTHS.

I am no financial expert, just a guy who is willing to read and try to learn from others.

March 13, 2020, 07:46 AM

Hay2bale

quote:
Originally posted by LS1 GTO:
quote:
Originally posted by ryan81986:
Is Boeing a good bet though? .

Consider them with Northrop, Lockheed, Raytheon, and maybe Curtiss Wright (see the theme?). Solid performers over the long haul with Boeing in the best position for the biggest gains over the next 5 to 10 years.

And once Boeing gets the software issued figured, investors are going to realize the $$ value of the company's backlog.

I would add General Dynamics GD. Iran is still a source of concern, their proxies are targeting our troops in Iraq again.

https://af.reuters.com/article...ldNews/idAFKBN20Z3QZ

March 13, 2020, 09:58 AM

sasquatch28

quote:
Originally posted by LS1 GTO:
quote:
Originally posted by ryan81986:
Is Boeing a good bet though? I know they hit almost 400 a few years ago but they've only been above 300 for a couple years.

Consider them with Northrop, Lockheed, Raytheon, and maybe Curtiss Wright (see the theme?). Solid performers over the long haul with Boeing in the best position for the biggest gains over the next 5 to 10 years.

And once Boeing gets the software issued figured, investors are going to realize the $$ value of the company's backlog.

The problem is what do you value them at today? Forward earnings fell through the floor to negative territory. Forward Earnings look...ambitious...and unrealistic with what the airlines are facing right now. I doubt they pick right up and start making money like nothing ever happened.

Personally, I'm not going to put any money into it. It would become intriguing to me only at less than $100, and even then, it would be speculative.

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."

March 13, 2020, 11:43 AM

clipper1

I think Boeing has a 737 finishing plant in China. I, for one, will not buy their stock when there are other good stocks available. They are extremely vulnerable to electronic espionage of proprietary defense material due to agreements made with China in order to be able manufacture there. YMMV.

March 13, 2020, 12:17 PM

Sig209

bought some RCL at $30 / share

75% off its 52 wk high

it'll be rocky for a while but I can't see that as a bad investment 5+ yrs out

the CEO has been there a long time so he's been through Y2k, dot com, 9/11, Financial Crisis, etc.

--------------------------------------

March 13, 2020, 11:23 PM

radioman

quote:
Originally posted by sasquatch28:
quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
quote:
Originally posted by sasquatch28:

I have 18 high quality dividend stocks on my watch list, even today 10 of the 18 are trading at a premium to what i consider fair value.

Any chance you'd care to share some of the ticker symbols. Always interested in how others think.

Nothing groundbreaking. Big companies with good to very good financials, that pay a dividend, and are expected to be in business for the foreseeable future.

JNJ
PG
ADP
MDT
GD
PEP
CVX
MMM
HD
MSFT
V
TXN
KO
AAPL
VZ
SO
D
HON

I have grown to hate mutual funds because I have little clue what, exactly, I am buying. Regrettably, my retirement plan at work only allows mutual funds.

I have found much more comfort trying to emulated the way Buffett and Munger look at their investments. I want good or great companies at a fair price.

JNJ goes down 20%? Big deal, I know what I own, and I can go look at their books. Barring total financial disaster, they will still be selling stuff to us in 15 years.

There will be some very good bargains to be had in the coming MONTHS.

I am no financial expert, just a guy who is willing to read and try to learn from others.

That's a great list. Thanks for sharing it. With regard to Mutual funds, I know what you mean. I've found the right index fund can be ok, like the index funds from Vanguard, or Fidelity. But yes, if you are locked into what your company offers, then that's that.