https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/...4+shtml/121459.shtml

..TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the
Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from
north of Port Aransas to High Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.5 North,
longitude 94.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest
near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward
motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the
the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and
approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early
Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches
the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Hoping it moves quickly through and doesn't dawdle... Most recent cone brings it right over us, and latest model runs show it moving slower than previous.

NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST...
Link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

And I’m on a 2 hour hold to change my flight to Brownsville tomorrow…

I have flown in and out of airports when there is tropical storm warning. I remember one year flying out with a tropical storm and landing in Indy with snow flurries a few hours later.

I & 2 co-workers were out-of-state at a class few years ago, south Florida was going to be hit with a hurricane so they let us cancel class & fly back.

One guy had his wife along, she worked the phones and service agents like crazy the whole time, we got on the last flight into Fort Lauderdale and boy it was rough. Aircraft bounced like 3 times landing & its the only time I ever witnessed the whole passenger compartment give the pilots a standing ovation when we rolled to a stop.

Not something I wish to repeat.

Lots of flooding risk off this one for Houston metropolitan area. 5 to 10 inches of rain in the Houston metro area, and 10 to 15 inches in Galveston and Brazoria Counties.

quote:

Originally posted by tigereye313:
Hoping it moves quickly through and doesn't dawdle... Most recent cone brings it right over us, and latest model runs show it moving slower than previous.

Lots of media hyping an outlier European model showing it to bring 40" of rain to Houston.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
Lots of flooding risk off this one for Houston metropolitan area. 5 to 10 inches of rain in the Houston metro area, and 10 to 15 inches in Galveston and Brazoria Counties.

As long as we don't get Harvey 2.0
A bit of rain would be welcome, a deluge, less so.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:

quote:

Originally posted by tigereye313:
Hoping it moves quickly through and doesn't dawdle... Most recent cone brings it right over us, and latest model runs show it moving slower than previous.

Lots of media hyping an outlier European model showing it to bring 40" of rain to Houston.

Good thing I don't watch the regular media.

It is an outlier, but the Euro has been correct a good amount of the time. Let's hope it was only one run in the ensemble.

For all my Houston area friends, if you've not seen these guys site before, they were the best resource I followed during Harvey:

https://spacecityweather.com

Yeah, I always check Eric Berger's site for the straight story without the hype. Even had people who work for NHC say he does impressive analysis. Waiting for his early morning take on the latest data. Space City Weather is my go to source for severe weather.

We took a group down to Orange when Harvey went through to do mud out/clean up. Heartbreaking.

Hope that Nic rolls through without catastrophic flooding. Bonus if CTX gets a little rain out of it.

Some rain is welcome, we can always use rain. But 20" is not welcome, lets hope this stays slow and steady and not inches per hour.

Hoping the crops in the Valley get the rain they need.

HK Ag

Just reached Cat 1 hurricane status.

Clouds are hauling arse out there. Impressive.

Looks like north of i10 and west of i45 ought to be spared the heaviest rain tonight and tomorrow am. I'm sure the wind will knock a branch onto a power line in our neighborhood and knock out the power. Already have the genny on the back porch...

We will be getting rain we don't need in La.

Lost power at 1 am and winds gusting to around 70 mph but rain not so bad thus far.

Our power stayed on until 0445. Genny is running, sipping coffee. Now just have to see if work has power...

NNE Houston, here.
Shockingly, we didn't lose power.

High winds & some off/on heavy rain. Otherwise, all is well here.

Wind blew over our pool fence, and that was the extent of cleanup this morning.

It's been calm the last hour or two, just the occasional gust of wind. No rain in at least the last hour.