What's next? Minor correction, big drop or it keeps going up?

Good question. I pretty much got out last spring when the big drop occurred. I think a drop is on the horizon before long due to our economy, lockdowns, rate of housing defaults and a host of other negative indicators. My crystal ball burnt out long ago, however, so who knows.

If I knew that, I'd be rich.

I suspect the near-term will reflect the results of the election and related court proceedings. Whether that's good or bad, I couldn't say.

Party Like It Is 1999 !!

interest rates are at historic lows. signals are that the Fed will not appreciably raise them anytime soon.

vaccine news is positive.

my gut tells me we are heading for more highs. the third quarter earnings announcements are going to be interesting to see.

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The market is reacting to the vaccines and the prospect that no matter what we will be out of lockdowns and other restrictions within the near future. They are also reacting to the result of the election because they are fairly certain Biden is "in". And with his team of insiders, things will go back to "business as usual".

If Biden actually moves ahead with his global warming agenda, it will affect the economy and market will reflect that.

It's up now on recent developments.
If the dims take control and put back Obama-Biden economics plus global warming policies I think it will go back to what it was during that last administration.

I'm sure it has to be the instant recovery brought to you by the Harris administration.

For the first time in my life, I acted decisively on an investment "hunch." I only get hunches few and far between and I never acted on them and have always ended up kicking myself.

On Nov 9 I cashed out my IRA accounts and told my investment manager to reverse my 70% stocks / 30% bonds portfolio allocation. My time line was to wait until second week of December to get back in. Since Nov 9, the market has risen 2.3%. I bought some stocks again today but really not much. It's just to assuage my insecurity. I'm going to be disciplined to follow through and wait until something big happens between now and Dec 15.

My gut says drop 1/27, and regular body blows when Harris takes over/announces her assorted Communist programs.

If Biden actually gets to execute his war on farms and family business plan, stocks might jump, but long term, the economy will be devastated.

Bleh... I'm going back to worrying about gardening...

We have enjoyed the ride.

In mid October, our guy called us and recommended we alter out allocation until after the election. We were heavily invested in FDGRX, which had an absolutely lights out run for the past several years.

We took 90% of what we had in FDGRX and placed it into VTTVX.

Against his recommendation, we did not sell all of the FDGRX, as it is closed to new investors and I wanted to be able to buy more FDGRX after the dust settles.

We are about 5 years away from retirement, so we are paying pretty close attention to our investments.

Rey,

I am in your camp. I am 90% cashed out of the market (some low risk dividend funds are still active) and will be waiting for economic news in December. Regardless, I have no plans to be aggressive without some sort of a significant pullback. (double digits)

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
It's up now on recent developments.
If the dims take control and put back Obama-Biden economics plus global warming policies I think it will go back to what it was during that last administration.

I hate putting politics into everything. However, this is the reality. If installed, Biden/Harris ecomonics will make zippy look like Dave Ramsey.

I'm eligible to retire in 8 years but could do longer if I choose. We have a set pension plan which I'm grateful for but I also contribute to our deferred comp 457. I don't have nearly as much as others do in it and the plan is to increase my contributions up to and at max amount but it's quite stressful thinking about it. It's only now gone above pre-covid numbers and I've stayed aggressive the whole time. Crazy seeing it drop almost 40% a few months ago. This sort of thing is not my specialty and I'm really not sure what to do with it going forward....

Yet another question where we could have really used an opinion from JAllen. His knowledge of the markets was only second to his knowledge of SCOTUS.

I would think if Biden gets in it will tank but my Financial expert sent me this.

“Since 1932, the S&P 500 Index has gained an aggregate of 710% under Democratic presidents and 375% under Republican presidents. But staying invested the entire time would have earned 47,000%,”


according to the [[ https://www.schwab.com/resource- center/insights/content/election-watch-what-should-investors-expect Schwab Center for Financial Research]].

I was 60% equities/40% bonds in January. I'm at 20% equities now. I might take more profits tomorrow.

The market is at an all-time high. Why? Because a vaccine is going to save us. But it won't bring back all the shuttered businesses. Big retailers made money from the stimulus and unemployment checks while everything else was shut down, and now stuff is starting to shutdown again.

I'll wait for the market to come back down again, except today I did buy some WH Group - the largest pork company in the world - the Chinese company that owns Smithfield Foods. People gotta eat, right.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
It's up now on recent developments.
If the dims take control and put back Obama-Biden economics plus global warming policies I think it will go back to what it was during that last administration.

I hate putting politics into everything. However, this is the reality. If installed, Biden/Harris ecomonics will make zippy look like Dave Ramsey.

I don't think they can. They need senate approval and won't get it even if it is 50/50. Too many dem Senators will be worried about midterms.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by 1s1k:
I would think if Biden gets in it will tank but my Financial expert sent me this.

“Since 1932, the S&P 500 Index has gained an aggregate of 710% under Democratic presidents and 375% under Republican presidents. But staying invested the entire time would have earned 47,000%,”

How much do people earn under socialist/communist Presidents. They may wait until 2022, but, no one can overturn a rigged election, so maybe not. This may be running up the market so the big guys can get out as little guys get in. Difficult to know the correct answer.

My crystal ball looks like a marble.