quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:
You do realize that your money manager gets paid based on what you have invested right? Go watch the scene in the wolf of wall street with Matthew McConaughey. Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next. What he does know if you get out he doesn't get to make his fees.

A money manager working for a bank doesn't know, but a good Financial Advisor does know what will happen long run.

Its still a guess, if they all really knew why would they need customers? They'd just invest their own money. There's always a few that guess correctly but there's many more that don't. Some things can be predicted but many can't (who saw covid coming?).

It is still a guess, but an educated guess based upon solid knowledge and years of experience playing the market, something that bank employees simply don't have.

For what it's worth, my financial advisor is a miltimillionaire, lives in a 5 million dollar house, and he didn't make all his money from his clients, he made a lot of it in the market.

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

For what it's worth, my financial advisor is a miltimillionaire, lives in a 5 million dollar house, and he didn't make all his money from his clients, he made a lot of it in the market.

But prior results are not indicative of future success.

I'm neither here nor there on financial advisors. I believe that most people are essentially financially illiterate. Any help is better than no help for the vast majority of people.

One benefit of a truly competent financial advisor is that they will be intimately familiar with tax laws. So while you can't predict the market, you can definitely gain an advantage if you navigate tax issues carefully.

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:



I agree with this post, but...
Leaves 2 unanswered questions...
1] How do you decide what % of your retirement to put in stocks and what % in bonds?
2] Which "total bond fund" ?? There are many and some are better than others.

Q #1: as mentioned it depends on your age and also your risk tolerance. if you're in your 20s-30s ... your bond % can / should be fairly low. when you're older -- less equity exposure is the norm. only YOU can determine the right %s that help you sleep well at night.

another factor that comes into play is if you have a pension forthcoming... if you DO -- the bond percentage theoretically could be lower than someone without a pension

Q #2: as you mention - lots of available ones out there. a good start would be Vanguard Total Bond MKT Index. very low expense ratio. but bonds have done so 'poorly' (especially compared to equities) lately they are really considered a risk hedge rather than a 'contributor' to increased wealth. personally i lump 'cash' with bonds and keep a decent amount in cash yielding about .4%. it sucks (losing $ to inflation) but protects me from a major market melt-down which DOES occur from time-to-time.

no one can predict the market that goes without saying. but you can have a PLAN for what you do if the market goes UP another 25% ... and a plan for what you do if it DROPS 25%...

-----------------------------------------

I post this every few years. I consider it to be the sigforum for personal investors.

bogleheads.org

"The Bogleheads® follow a small number of simple investment principles that have been shown over time to produce risk-adjusted returns far greater than those achieved by the average investor. . . . the basis of all of these principles is the idea that successful investing is not a complicated process, and can be accomplished by anyone with a small amount of effort."

quote:

Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
I post this every few years. I consider it to be the sigforum for personal investors.

bogleheads.org

"The Bogleheads® follow a small number of simple investment principles that have been shown over time to produce risk-adjusted returns far greater than those achieved by the average investor. . . . the basis of all of these principles is the idea that successful investing is not a complicated process, and can be accomplished by anyone with a small amount of effort."

yes its a great discussion board.

but kinda like gun boards -- there are about 8 threads that get started over and over again:

Can I afford to retire early?
Please critique my portfolio
What should I do with my windfall / bonus / raise
What is my best asset allocation?
Should I go with Vanguard or Schwab or Fidelity ?
Tips on firing my financial advisor
etc

but i have learned a few things -- some pretty smart folks there

-----------------------------------------

^^^
Kinda like visiting a Harley forum and seeing the same discussion over and over again:
Oil (this oil is better than all others)
Tires (these tires run better than those square ones you run)
Gas (I wouldn't put Arco gas in my Harley if I could piss in it first and get it to run)

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:
You do realize that your money manager gets paid based on what you have invested right? Go watch the scene in the wolf of wall street with Matthew McConaughey. Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next. What he does know if you get out he doesn't get to make his fees.

A money manager working for a bank doesn't know, but a good Financial Advisor does know what will happen long run.

Its still a guess, if they all really knew why would they need customers? They'd just invest their own money. There's always a few that guess correctly but there's many more that don't. Some things can be predicted but many can't (who saw covid coming?).

It is still a guess, but an educated guess based upon solid knowledge and years of experience playing the market, something that bank employees simply don't have.

For what it's worth, my financial advisor is a miltimillionaire, lives in a 5 million dollar house, and he didn't make all his money from his clients, he made a lot of it in the market.

I agree somewhat, despite what people think, those with financial experience (i.e. those in the field as their occupation) do have some knowledge that the average person does not. They understand the indicators and things that have happened in the past and can make some educated guesses. I wish I would have been more serious about investing when I was younger. Anybody should be able to make money in this market, my Interactive Brokers account is up 175% in the last year, my Vanguard is up 71.8% in the last year. Both of these from paying a small amount (a fe wondered dollars) for financial advice from a couple people who happened to be correct.

quote:

Originally posted by ulsterman:

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:

quote:

Originally posted by ulsterman:
Our accounts are down about 2% and it's still early.

Talked to our money manager. "Open a bottle of bourbon and hang on. It will hurt but you'll be OK."

You do realize that your money manager gets paid based on what you have invested right? Go watch the scene in the wolf of wall street with Matthew McConaughey. Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next. What he does know if you get out he doesn't get to make his fees.

I'm not an idiot. We don't base our investments on scenes from movies.

It doesn't make his point any less true. The entire concept of investment is getting people to put their money at risk in hopes that it goes higher. Keeping it at risk is how they continue to make money and they will keep advising people to stay invested so they can continue to make their fees.

What's propping the market up? COVID tanked the market until the Fed starting pumping trillions of dollars into it. More businesses have closed in the last 18 months than all the businesses that closed during the Great Depression.

Wall Street Bets, Robinhood and other smartphone based trading apps have turned investing into a video game. Leverage has poured fuel onto this market's fire and this is the most overleveraged market the world has ever seen. Mark my words when the "conservative" 2-10x leveraged trades start to cut their losses or get liquidated we're going to see a crash that is unlike any other in prior history.

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I agree somewhat, despite what people think, those with financial experience (i.e. those in the field as their occupation) do have some knowledge that the average person does not. They understand the indicators and things that have happened in the past and can make some educated guesses. I wish I would have been more serious about investing when I was younger. Anybody should be able to make money in this market, my Interactive Brokers account is up 175% in the last year, my Vanguard is up 71.8% in the last year. Both of these from paying a small amount (a fe wondered dollars) for financial advice from a couple people who happened to be correct.

Yeah, so while I trust my financial advisor, I didn't give him all my money to invest. I gave him half and I manage the other half.

He usually does around 1 or 2 percent better than I do per year, so he more than earns his fee.

"quote"
It doesn't make his point any less true. The entire concept of investment is getting people to put their money at risk in hopes that it goes higher. Keeping it at risk is how they continue to make money and they will keep advising people to stay invested so they can continue to make their fees.

What's propping the market up? COVID tanked the market until the Fed starting pumping trillions of dollars into it. More businesses have closed in the last 18 months than all the businesses that closed during the Great Depression.

Wall Street Bets, Robinhood and other smartphone based trading apps have turned investing into a video game. Leverage has poured fuel onto this market's fire and this is the most overleveraged market the world has ever seen. Mark my words when the "conservative" 2-10x leveraged trades start to cut their losses or get liquidated we're going to see a crash that is unlike any other in prior history.[/QUOTE]


While I am not sure this will be the case. It should be given some consideration as a possibility. If you have a twenty or more year investment window. Then go for it. If you have a five years or less, I would give serious consideration to this scenario. Even though many here think it is highly unlikely. It is possible given current events that will likely persist in some form or fashion for a while.

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:

quote:

Originally posted by ulsterman:

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:

quote:

Originally posted by ulsterman:
Our accounts are down about 2% and it's still early.

Talked to our money manager. "Open a bottle of bourbon and hang on. It will hurt but you'll be OK."

You do realize that your money manager gets paid based on what you have invested right? Go watch the scene in the wolf of wall street with Matthew McConaughey. Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next. What he does know if you get out he doesn't get to make his fees.

I'm not an idiot. We don't base our investments on scenes from movies.

It doesn't make his point any less true. The entire concept of investment is getting people to put their money at risk in hopes that it goes higher. Keeping it at risk is how they continue to make money and they will keep advising people to stay invested so they can continue to make their fees.

What's propping the market up? COVID tanked the market until the Fed starting pumping trillions of dollars into it. More businesses have closed in the last 18 months than all the businesses that closed during the Great Depression.

Wall Street Bets, Robinhood and other smartphone based trading apps have turned investing into a video game. Leverage has poured fuel onto this market's fire and this is the most overleveraged market the world has ever seen. Mark my words when the "conservative" 2-10x leveraged trades start to cut their losses or get liquidated we're going to see a crash that is unlike any other in prior history.

I've probably been investing money longer than most of you have been alive. I have a good concept on how it works.

Is it a risk? Of course. It's how you manage the risk that will make you money or make you broke.

If you don't trust your financial advisor 100%, then move your money to someone else or manage it your self.

Quote from you: "Mark my words when the "conservative" 2-10x leveraged trades start to cut their losses or get liquidated we're going to see a crash that is unlike any other in prior history."

Quote from him "Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next."

Who is correct?

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

quote:

Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
I post this every few years. I consider it to be the sigforum for personal investors.

bogleheads.org

"The Bogleheads® follow a small number of simple investment principles that have been shown over time to produce risk-adjusted returns far greater than those achieved by the average investor. . . . the basis of all of these principles is the idea that successful investing is not a complicated process, and can be accomplished by anyone with a small amount of effort."

yes its a great discussion board.

but kinda like gun boards -- there are about 8 threads that get started over and over again:

Can I afford to retire early?
Please critique my portfolio
What should I do with my windfall / bonus / raise
What is my best asset allocation?
Should I go with Vanguard or Schwab or Fidelity ?
Tips on firing my financial advisor
etc

but i have learned a few things -- some pretty smart folks there

-----------------------------------------

I agree. After you've learned everything from it that pertains to your situation, it become apparent that a several of the usual suspects have more than a few bucks saved up.

quote:

Originally posted by ulsterman:


Quote from you: "Mark my words when the "conservative" 2-10x leveraged trades start to cut their losses or get liquidated we're going to see a crash that is unlike any other in prior history."

Quote from him "Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next."

Who is correct?

What I said is correct. When the dominoes fall this over leveraged market is going to dump harder than any market prior. I don't know when it'll happen but it's going to happen. In prior downturns investors had the option to hold until the market recovers. This market cycle is straight up gambling and leveraged positions don't get to wait around for the turn. They get liquidated and force even more sales perpetuating the move. Think GME in reverse.


Your money manager is advising you to stay in the market while it's at an ATH thinking it's going to go higher. If you've been investing as long as you say you have then you'd understand mean reversion and that one is long overdue.

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:
You do realize that your money manager gets paid based on what you have invested right? Go watch the scene in the wolf of wall street with Matthew McConaughey. Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next. What he does know if you get out he doesn't get to make his fees.

A money manager working for a bank doesn't know, but a good Financial Advisor does know what will happen long run.

Nobody knows what will happen long run, other than God. A good Financial Advisor helps you position yourself to do well whatever happens.

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
Anybody should be able to make money in this market, my Interactive Brokers account is up 175% in the last year, my Vanguard is up 71.8% in the last year.

In the last year? So starting from when the market was extremely low due to Covid?

quote:

Originally posted by Keystoner:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
Anybody should be able to make money in this market, my Interactive Brokers account is up 175% in the last year, my Vanguard is up 71.8% in the last year.

In the last year? So starting from when the market was extremely low due to Covid?

Yes, in the last year. I wish I would have put more of my money into the market (I only put about 25% of what I had into it). I had been waiting for a crash so I had a lot of money available but I also did not want to lost it all. I took some advice from a couple people (it was fairly inexpensive, spent about $200 on it) and it turned out well. I still have a lot of upside left too.

i will say this i learned a bit the last time.

do NOT think Democrats don't want to make money. their 'power to the people', 'income equality' stance is just for show. it's advertising BS.

check out the $$$ folks like Schumer / Pelosi / Feinstein make in the market.

i wrongly got overly conservative financially when Obama was Pres. (for a couple years) thinking he was going to turn the US into a socialist economy or worse.

here are the SP 500 returns when he was in office:

2009: 27%
2010: 15%
2011 2%
2012 16%
2013 32%
2014 13%
2015 1%
2016 12%

my point is -- exit the market at your peril. by all means develop an appropriate stock / bond / cash percentage. but if you exit thinking they are going to 'collapse the stock market' that is a huge mistake.

Dems love $$$ as much -- or MORE -- than R's. their anti-business spiel is an act -- and if anything their regs actually HELP big business. (by creating regulatory hurdles for smaller / less capitalized companies)

---------------------------------------------------------

i agree 209. But because of retirement our mix is such to protect us in the event of a major correction/crash. That of course is at the expense of seeing really big returns of a portfolio mostly in stocks. Our stock percentage is at about 50% or slightly less. We have done well. But not the huge gains. But we sleep well at night. So everyone's mmv. I continue to think at some point in the not too distant future the other shoe is going to drop. I am not hoping it does. But seems inevitable based on where we are.

And I agree that under the dems the eliteist's get flithy rich. Everyone else suffers. It astounds me that the sheep buy into that. It is so obvious.

quote:

Originally posted by ulsterman:

Quote from you: "Mark my words when the "conservative" 2-10x leveraged trades start to cut their losses or get liquidated we're going to see a crash that is unlike any other in prior history."

Quote from him "Your money manager doesn't know what is going to happen next."

Who is correct?

Neither. That's pretty obvious.

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
Anybody should be able to make money in this market, my Interactive Brokers account is up 175% in the last year, my Vanguard is up 71.8% in the last year.

Was it in mutual funds? If so, are you able to share which funds? Thank you for any tips.