Americans have rarely been this giddy about the stock market.

They are piling into stocks as major indexes reach new highs and placing bets that the rally that has driven the S&P 500 up 18% this year has more room to run.

The surging stock market has minted millionaires and helped send many Americans’ net worth sharply higher. As of the second quarter, the number of 401(k) retirement accounts at Fidelity Investments worth at least $1 million reached around 497,000, according to the firm. That is up 31% from a year ago and a record high.

U.S. households’ stock allocations have steadily inched up this year, according to JPMorgan estimates, and recently accounted for around 42% of their total financial assets. That is the most on record in data going back to 1952.

And investors are still feeling good about the market. At a time when many people have been stung by higher prices for eggs, bread and other household staples, the stock market has offered a real-time barometer of their rising wealth. The S&P 500 has hit more than three dozen fresh records this year, on pace for the most in a calendar year since 2021.

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That has delighted those who have taken a peek at their portfolios.

“Was just going through my 401k and HOLY HELL what a God Send,” wrote Steve Ethridge on social-media platform X this month.

The 51-year-old said he has been steadily investing for years and poured more cash into the market over the past one after landing a raise at work.

The steady gains in his stock portfolio have made him feel better about his money than he has in a while. He isn’t too concerned about the recent market volatility.

“I do feel better off than I did a few years ago,” Ethridge said.

He isn’t alone. One measure of bullish sentiment among investors is hovering around its highest levels of the past year, according to the American Association of Individual Investors.

Of course, some investors see reasons to be cautious. September is often one of the most volatile months for markets, and turbulence could pick up around a contentious presidential election that has already been full of surprises.

Others remain on edge that technology behemoths loom so large over the market and worry that hype around artificial-intelligence has gone too far. Nvidia’s latest earnings results beat expectations. But its stock still sank the next day, a sign of how high the bar has risen for the chip maker.

LINK: https://www.wsj.com/finance/st...stocks-ceee798b?mod=
from WSJ

One positive about massive inflation and runaway prices for everything is companies are making a killing which is sending stock prices through the roof.

I don't know about y'all, but I'm starting to get concerned about the next few months I'm sitting on a bunch of cash until after November. I'm guessing we can't sustain the current run and will be placing bets after the next correction. If nothing happens between now and election day then I'll just spread the cash over the 12 months of 2025. The 5%+ I'm getting on cash makes it hard to put money into an overheated market.

There is an employment report coming out on 9/6, which will likely be the key in determining interest rate policy for September. There hasn't been a major risk off rotation out of AI, chips, and mega caps yet regardless of the news.

Traders are not the same as investors. Average people should not be traders. Trading is the same as gambling.

Trailing Stop-Loss seems a really smart idea right now.

riding a little wave as I reduced our portfolio to under 50% stocks thinking a major correction was in the offing. I was wrong and guess I will be wrong until there is a big one. I am fine with that. Congrats to those who are more bullish. It is quite a ride.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I don't know about y'all, but I'm starting to get concerned about the next few months I'm sitting on a bunch of cash until after November. I'm guessing we can't sustain the current run and will be placing bets after the next correction. If nothing happens between now and election day then I'll just spread the cash over the 12 months of 2025. The 5%+ I'm getting on cash makes it hard to put money into an overheated market.

Yep. I may have been premature or didn't get back in right after the big drop early August which I avoided. I'm now 25% equities and in sectors positioned for a recession that's been a couple of years late. I still remember the dot com bust when I was on the sidelines waiting for the bust to come, finally capitulated with the "this time things are different" mantra and went back in just before the bubble broke.

Past painful lessons help us.

I have ETFS in Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities along with the top 2 or 3 companies in each.

September is supposedly the worst month for equities over the past decade averaging 2.3% drop.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I don't know about y'all, but I'm starting to get concerned about the next few months I'm sitting on a bunch of cash until after November. I'm guessing we can't sustain the current run and will be placing bets after the next correction. If nothing happens between now and election day then I'll just spread the cash over the 12 months of 2025. The 5%+ I'm getting on cash makes it hard to put money into an overheated market.

This

Today took some of the jizz out of the bull.

I got four page letter that Wells sends to customers. Brokerage account. It is probably confidential and propriatary. My former broker died three years ago and dealing with 39 year old broker. He is smart and has good support. It is all about learning and relationships anyway. His son who was forty was a disaster. I changed firms and this guy is cool. Gotta pay tax estimate as I am self employed. My broker is 80 and I am good unless he dies. What is the saying its all about he money.

Election should be interesting as it pertains to money. If Kamala wins taxes on unrealized capital gains will kill me. Bad enough already.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Election should be interesting as it pertains to money. If Kamala wins taxes on unrealized capital gains will kill me. Bad enough already.

Can you explain your last sentence. What does that mean in general?

Buy UNH stock at twenty dollars a share it goes to 500 smackers a share. You pay tax on the unrealized gains. Supposed to be for folks that make over 400 grand per year. I say BS. THe IRS Ccould not keep up with that even with their so called expansion with 65000 new workers. my current problem is estimated taxes due sept 15 for self employed folks. My friends who are mainly MDs are really pissed at that prospect. They are mostly in the 400 grand bracket.

quote:

Traders are not the same as investors. Average people should not be traders. Trading is the same as gambling.

Trailing Stop-Loss seems a really smart idea right now.

Yes if you know how. I do not do that. I have casinoes here so that is available if I wanted that. If you do that fine. I do not have a MBA from Harvard and I work in healthcare like the doc in Texas.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:

quote:

Traders are not the same as investors. Average people should not be traders. Trading is the same as gambling.

Trailing Stop-Loss seems a really smart idea right now.

Yes if you know how. I do not do that. I have casinoes here so that is available if I wanted that. If you do that fine. I do not have a MBA from Harvard and I work in healthcare like the doc in Texas.

I am not a trader. Back in the late 1990's I was trading while working a full time job, and then lost it all in the tech-wreck dot.com bust of the early 2000's. Learned my lesson there big time!

A trailing stop-loss is a simple thing to do. My brokerage website makes it super simple. I specify a percentage below the high (say 5%), and then as the stock makes new highs the stop-loss inches up to 5% below that new price. If the price comes back down the stop loss stays where it was, and if the price hits that stop-loss then the stock is sold.

It is the same as a regular stop-loss except it is automated so I don't have to check in regularly and revise it as the stock moves up. The benefit is is captures the upside automatically while protecting the downside.

You just have to come up with whatever percentage seems right. A highly volatile stock needs a bigger percentage or you'll trigger the sale prematurely.

In treacherous times it is a good tool. I hate losing money.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I'm sitting on a bunch of cash until after November.

It's one of the few safe places to be...until the petro-dollar goes away. Then we're all fucked.

quote:

Originally posted by doublesharp:
Today took some of the jizz out of the bull.

Tuesday's ~3% market drop was centered around Nvidia, who lost a staggering $279 Billion in stock value on Tuesday, nearly a 9.5% decline. They lost in one day more than nearly all of even the largest US companies are worth in total.

(But don't feel too bad for Nvidia... They're still worth several trillion dollars.)

Stems from a combination of investors coming around lately to believing that AI-heavy companies in general are overvalued, coupled with news that Nvidia is facing a pending antitrust investigation by the DOJ.

quote:

Originally posted by 1s1k:
One positive about massive inflation and runaway prices for everything is companies are making a killing which is sending stock prices through the roof.

Stocks naturally go up with inflation because the underlying assets and the stream of future profits go up. Arguably stocks should go up equal to inflation on average.

Saying that companies are making a killing due to inflation is price-gouging argument. Sure dollar profits go up, but the dollars have less value.

Say there was 5% inflation every year. All things being equal, corporate profits, and the stock market would also go up 5% a year. But the change in "real dollars" would be zero.

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
But the change in "real dollars" would be zero.

Except for the change in real dollars that you pay in taxes thanks to the progressive tax code.

Well the djia is down 2.5% this week.

The 500 index's are about -4+%

Not a great week.

Wonder where will be next Fri. evening?