quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
That being said I would expect some rapid relief and stimulus to be forthcoming.

I'm not sure how or if a stimulus package would help. This is a supply chain disruption, not a lack of money. Maybe a stimulus package would help but I have some serious doubts.

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
I was thinking about buying some more Ford once it hits bottom.

Dumb question, but how will you know when it hits bottom?

I'd like to buy a bunch at the bottom too.

It’s whatever I think is bottom

FWIW, XOM (Exon-Mobile) has hit a 15 year low too, and it has like a 7% dividend.

Disclaimer, I don't buy individual stocks since I'm an index fund kind of guy.

Going to be going even lower with Russia and Saudis dumping oil in a pissing match.

This too shall pass...

DOW POSTS BIGGEST LOSS SINCE 2008!!!

No, not in any real and meaningful measure.
Thanks CNN (and others) for continue to stoke the fires of panic and irrational action.

Stock market isn't what I do for a living.
Why is a substantial increase in the global supply of oil bad for the market overall?

quote:

Originally posted by ChuckFinley:
Stock market isn't what I do for a living.
Why is a substantial increase in the global supply of oil bad for the market overall?

2 effects:

1. It makes fracking for oil in the U.S. unprofitable and they shut down for a period of time until the price of oil increases to where their operations are profitable. This causes a lot of jobs lost in the U.S. directly, and also a lot of jobs lost from businesses that support the fracking industry (suppliers of raw materials, heavy equipment rental places, etc.)

2. It drops the oil price per barrel on the markets which also causes a drop in other markets like the stock market.

Now I see demand for oil dropping just to begin with, with all of the flights being cancelled, shipments (IE container ships) being postponed from China, and cruise ships dropping some trips. So that in and of itself would drop the price of oil. Add to it increased production from Russia and Saudi's will further drop the price of oil. It's all supply and demand, which is all BS anyways because when they squeezed us for $5 a gallon of gasoline back in the mid 2000's, there was no shortage of oil or gasoline, gas stations never ran out because they couldn't get gasoline.

quote:

Originally posted by ChuckFinley:
Stock market isn't what I do for a living.
Why is a substantial increase in the global supply of oil bad for the market overall?

The goal of the Saudis is to stop fracking in the US because it keeps the overall price of oil down globally. This new fight with Russia will make fracking unsustainable at current prices and the industry creates roughly 10.3 million jobs. That is why the market is reacting to the sudden drop in the per barrel price. It could have a huge impact on our economy.

P.S. I see jimmy123x beat me to it. I'll just leave my post anyway.

Jim

quote:

Originally posted by Bytes:

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
That being said I would expect some rapid relief and stimulus to be forthcoming.

I'm not sure how or if a stimulus package would help. This is a supply chain disruption, not a lack of money. Maybe a stimulus package would help but I have some serious doubts.

Agreed. Gonna have to buckle up and ride this one out. You were fortunate to go to cash before this debacle. Today was bad.

For those of us who work in the energy field, particularly the crude oil and refinery market, the talk of cheaper gas at the gas pump as some kind of consolation doesn't exactly make up for the anxiety many of us are feeling today.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
For those of us who work in the energy field, particularly the crude oil and refinery market, the talk of cheaper gas at the gas pump as some kind of consolation doesn't exactly make up for the anxiety many of us are feeling today.

I'd have no problem paying a little more for gas as a tradeoff for stability in the oil and natural gas markets. A small price to pay in the long haul.

Jim

It's stiff drink time.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo54:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
For those of us who work in the energy field, particularly the crude oil and refinery market, the talk of cheaper gas at the gas pump as some kind of consolation doesn't exactly make up for the anxiety many of us are feeling today.

I'd have no problem paying a little more for gas as a tradeoff for stability in the oil and natural gas markets. A small price to pay in the long haul.

Jim

I would agree. I realize that all folks are not in my family's situation but all my cars get 35mpg and gasoline is a very small piece of our budget. Lower gas prices do very little to help me but hurt a lot of people in the industry. I hope this gets straightened out soon Blaze.

I admit to not knowing a ton about the oil business. So take this for what is is worth. I am not a fan of fracking. Think it is not a good environmental technique (not good for the environment). I did not say it was not good for the oil industry.

Also low crude prices are not good for the oil industry. But I did not say they are not good for everyone else.

I am not shedding a tear that oil's prices are falling and falling some more.

So there is that.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
It's stiff drink time.

See it's a good thing you prepped. What a shit storm, Russian and SA fighting each other with the secondary goal of making US production prohibitively expensive vs price. This while Corona-pocalypse is going on. Supply chain interruptions and panic. Not good for the market, not good for anyone in energy.

quote:

Originally posted by Bytes:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo54:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
For those of us who work in the energy field, particularly the crude oil and refinery market, the talk of cheaper gas at the gas pump as some kind of consolation doesn't exactly make up for the anxiety many of us are feeling today.

I'd have no problem paying a little more for gas as a tradeoff for stability in the oil and natural gas markets. A small price to pay in the long haul.

Jim

I would agree. I realize that all folks are not in my family's situation but all my cars get 35mpg and gasoline is a very small piece of our budget. Lower gas prices do very little to help me but hurt a lot of people in the industry. I hope this gets straightened out soon Blaze.

But it does effect everyone a lot more than you think. Most everything that you purchase was most likely delivered to the U.S. by a ship burning a huge amount of fuel per mile, and everything you buy was delivered by a tractor trailer getting 6-7 MPG. So when fuel prices are high, goods are high.

When oil is too low, millions of Americans lose jobs in the oil industry. So somewhere in between, there is a happy medium.

And one would think that without the Corona-PANIC(TM), lower fuel prices would act similar to lower interest rates, stimulating a lot of industries that depend on oil and oil products. However, with the PANIC freaking folks out, demand is going through the floor regardless of price, so we get the loss of oil industry jobs due to low prices without the stimulant effect of low prices on other industries. I suspect there will be great buying opportunities in the oil and gas sector for those with the cash and the nerve to buy when it gets really ugly. For now, it seems like it is all pain...

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
I admit to not knowing a ton about the oil business. So take this for what is is worth. I am not a fan of fracking. Think it is not a good environmental technique (not good for the environment). I did not say it was not good for the oil industry.

Also low crude prices are not good for the oil industry. But I did not say they are not good for everyone else.

I am not shedding a tear that oil's prices are falling and falling some more.

So there is that.

Drill Baby Drill!!!
Do you think oil would be falling if we did not have fracking in the US.
The Saudi's and Russians would love to shut our fracking down.
Our energy production is what propped up our economy during the Kenyan's years in spite of all his attempts to regulate into oblivion.
We are becoming energy independent and we need to continue.
If you want to shut our energy production down don't complain when oil is $100 a barrel.

Also when you have Russian money infiltrating Sierra Club and National Resources Defense Council, I bet there only worried about our environment.

There will be bargains to be had, but "the market" is still somewhat overpriced on a historical basis.

If you choose to invest in individual stocks, know what you are buying from both a quality and valuation standpoint.

The world is awash in cheap oil, and there is ready supply that was already sidelined prior to this price crash.

This covid19 stuff will be like a series of pause buttons on country's economies as governments attempt to slow the spread enough to prevent a total overwhelming of the healthcare system.

Crashing crude prices will bankrupt a good portion of the shale producers. The shale producers have been borrowing vast quantities of debt. The estimate of bbb and lower rated bonds is one to two trillion. This is going to reverberate thru our banks, which took a big hit today.

Consumer spending makes up over 50% of our economy, know one presently has a good idea of the downturn we will see. Follow the CDC guidelines, everything else I view as noise. Hopefully we do not follow the Italy model.

I all for drilling and becoming energy independent or more independent. But the process of fracking is not something I support.

I like low oil prices.

And there is a lot of things the oil industry say's and doe's that manipulate the price.

So if some of the manipulators want to manipulate the price lower and that bothers some of their industry bedfellow's. That does not bother me one bit