- Investor emotions hitting P/E

- Real-world effects of panic hitting travel related companies in real-time

- Impact of real-world logistics and/or workforce issues on the rest of the equity markets won't be public knowledge till companies either release amended forecasts or next quarterly results.

- Central bank moves were (and will continue to be) welcome and necessary both to help stimulate demand and to provide cash to the markets in case people start drawing out bank accounts to sit on cash. However, the market absorbs that data, prices it in, and moves on. It would be the lack of that activity that would permanently affect the markets, and not in a positive way, IMO.

Bottom line: I can't imagine this being over till after the next earnings seasons, at the earliest.

TL: DR Still waiting for bargains, personally.

In Austin, SXSW just cancelled.

In Orlando, the 4th and 5th largest conventions for the entire year happen in March. They just cancelled.

My good friend runs a national rental car agency in Orlando. He said the rate of cancellations in the last week is unlike anything he has ever seen. March, because of conventions and spring break at the same time, is normally his busiest month of the year. He said his rates are now at all time lows just to make sure the cars get out onto the road.

I thought it would be the lack of consumer goods to cause the crash, probably later this month or in April. I was wrong. It's going to be the lack of travel to cause the crash.

quote:

It's going to be the lack of travel to cause the crash

^^^^^^^^^
Like 1929? Doubtful. There are segments of our economy that will profit from a travel slowdown. I do not hear any complaints about lower gas prices or complaints from Clorox stockholders.

I bought more Wesbanco (WSBC) Friday. Buying for div @ 4.5%

I bought more Truist (BB&T/SunTrust) TFC for a 4.3% yield, and Valero VLO for a 6.2% yield.

The oil stocks are scaring the crap out of me, though, and the prices at the pump have not gone down much. Too early to buy oil stocks.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:

quote:

It's going to be the lack of travel to cause the crash

^^^^^^^^^
Like 1929? Doubtful. There are segments of our economy that will profit from a travel slowdown. I do not hear any complaints about lower gas prices or complaints from Clorox stockholders.

Let me re-phrase, not a stock market crash, and not like 1929, but an overall economic crash, which will affect the stock market.

Here is my layperson perspective; any time money stops moving, either person to person or business to business, the economy weakens.

My original guess was that the money would stop moving when consumer goods stopped moving, when we starting emptying the supply chain. However, the travel sector beat the supply chain to it, and it has been the travel sector that has stopped the money from moving.

SXSW was worth $350 million in impact to Austin.

The HIMSS Health Conference was worth $120 million to Orange County (Orlando).

And this is happening all over. There is a large list of Fortune 500 companies that have cancelled all non essential travel. Even the impact of a business traveler here, a business traveler there, it all adds up. And when the consumer goods segment starts to run dry later this month and in April, I am guessing it is going to get really ugly.

I hope and pray I am wrong. How bad it is going to get, I certainly do not know. But at the very least, I think for now the economic expansion is over.

Ok, then maybe the word you are looking for is recession??? Just for the point of clairification.

Did someone mention Oil?

quote:

Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices

https://www.zerohedge.com/comm...-slashing-oil-prices

It is not necessarily the virus that concerns me, but the impacts on the delicate healthcare system..This one is probably the most concerning article i have read:

https://www.zerohedge.com/heal...h-according-analysis

West Texas crude futures are down 27% this evening. We are in uncharted waters here.

Unleaded gas today was a Buck 88. Thanks Saudi Arabia!

quote:

Originally posted by sasquatch28:
It is not necessarily the virus that concerns me, but the impacts on the delicate healthcare system..This one is probably the most concerning article i have read:

https://www.zerohedge.com/heal...h-according-analysis

I don't believe that bullshit. Every hospital bed filled by May 8th.
Let's wait and see.

Zero Hedge is full of doom porn. Must be able to separate the wheat from the chaff if you frequent that site, which I have for 9 years and 9 months.

Steve Bannon is a bit of an alarmist but he has been right on this virus. War Room and War Room Pandemic are his podcast sites. https://pandemic.warroom.org/

CNBC has dow futures down over 1000 points for Monday open.

The 10 yr treasury has dropped to new all time low of 0.5%.

quote:

Originally posted by doublesharp:

CNBC has dow futures down over 1000 points for Monday open.

Damned fools. Everyone needs to snap the hell out of it. And Saudi Arabia is pulling their shit again. That ain't a freakin' coincidence.

The 5% circuit breaker kicked in early this evening. The drop in crude is going to be a problem for the frackers . The VIX will be interesting this week .

we need some good news to balance.

Crude prices, unreal.

I believe the cascading down has just started.

We have:
A new strain of virus (likely overhyped, but new and somewhat unknown)
A huge destabilization this weekend in the energy sector
Supply and therefore consumption impacts that are unknown now, but they will be negatives for the markets
Profit and guidance impacts that are unknown now
Decreased money velocity from the virus and travel impact

It would not surprise me to see the S&P500 at 2,000. I moved out of the market on Feb 25, will move into the SH soon and buy the SSO when it bottoms and starts climbing.

quote:

Originally posted by heathtx:
I believe the cascading down has just started.

We have:
A new strain of virus (likely overhyped, but new and somewhat unknown)
A huge destabilization this weekend in the energy sector
Supply and therefore consumption impacts that are unknown now, but they will be negatives for the markets
Profit and guidance impacts that are unknown now
Decreased money velocity from the virus and travel impact

It would not surprise me to see the S&P500 at 2,000. I moved out of the market on Feb 25, will move into the SH soon and buy the SSO when it bottoms and starts climbing.

I got in late to the party and made a very small move and sold short 100 shares of AAL (American Airlines) at $18.52 figuring the airline stock would be most volatile. I was going to buy to cover it when it went down 10%, well it quickly surpassed that, so if it goes up to where I only make 10% I'll cover it, right now I'm riding it down...…

However, I agree with everything you've said, but also a HUGE decline in the entire travel and hospitality sector. Part of Italy is on lock down.

I'm in a wait until the bottom and don't think we're near it, I figure around 20,000 for the DJIA and buy buy buy mode, and I really don't feel we've seen the bottom. The cruise industry had a ship outside of Fort Lauderdale today where they wouldn't let it into port until 2 crew members were tested (flew a helicopter out to sea to get tests done on them).

Low cost of oil globally does help stimulate the economies.

quote:

Originally posted by heathtx:
I believe the cascading down has just started.

We have:
A new strain of virus (likely overhyped, but new and somewhat unknown)
A huge destabilization this weekend in the energy sector
Supply and therefore consumption impacts that are unknown now, but they will be negatives for the markets
Profit and guidance impacts that are unknown now
Decreased money velocity from the virus and travel impact

It would not surprise me to see the S&P500 at 2,000. I moved out of the market on Feb 25, will move into the SH soon and buy the SSO when it bottoms and starts climbing.

A move to 2000 on the 500 would equate to a PE of 13. The large and rapid moves in the credit and oil markets cause anxiety for instution failures similar to the 2008 meltdown. Corporate bond funds on the wrong side have been a worry that they will drop the gate , thus stopping withdrawals.


That being said I would expect some rapid relief and stimulus to be forthcoming.