Stock Market Bargains and the Virus

February 28, 2020, 03:25 PM

Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago. A financial adviser that I golf with told me that the Corona Virus could really fuck up supply chains, mainly from China. I'll get back in when it looks like China gets a handle on this problem. Until then we're going to see some hurt. I don't think the market is done dropping. I know, market timers are losers but I've never been hurt sitting on the sidelines for a while. It's cost me a bit when an upturn hits but I didn't ride a bear market down. It doesn't cost that much to get out and back in the market. My 2 cents.

February 28, 2020, 04:26 PM

rpm2010

quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago. A financial adviser that I golf with told me that the Corona Virus could really fuck up supply chains, mainly from China. I'll get back in when it looks like China gets a handle on this problem. Until then we're going to see some hurt. I don't think the market is done dropping. I know, market timers are losers but I've never been hurt sitting on the sidelines for a while. It's cost me a bit when an upturn hits but I didn't ride a bear market down. It doesn't cost that much to get out and back in the market. My 2 cents.

What excellent timing and follow through, hope you get back in and ride the upswing! Hope some members do well under the circumstances. The "rest of us" will have to strap on the seat belts & shoulder harness!

February 28, 2020, 04:35 PM

slosig

quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago. A financial adviser that I golf with told me that the Corona Virus could really fuck up supply chains, mainly from China. I'll get back in when it looks like China gets a handle on this problem. Until then we're going to see some hurt. I don't think the market is done dropping. I know, market timers are losers but I've never been hurt sitting on the sidelines for a while. It's cost me a bit when an upturn hits but I didn't ride a bear market down. It doesn't cost that much to get out and back in the market. My 2 cents.

There is an interesting mathematical principle that makes avoiding a loss more important than catching a gain. If you start with $100,000 and you take a 20% haircut, you now have $80,000. In order to get back to where you started, you need a 25% gain just to break even. With you excellent timing beating the haircut, whenever it turns around, if you wait so long you miss half the ride back up, you’ll be miles ahead of those who rode it all the way down and back. Of course, taxes can have an impact, but some of the worst mistakes I’ve made investing involved worrying too much about the taxes and not enough about what was going on...

February 28, 2020, 04:44 PM

Bytes

quote:
Originally posted by slosig:
quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago. A financial adviser that I golf with told me that the Corona Virus could really fuck up supply chains, mainly from China. I'll get back in when it looks like China gets a handle on this problem. Until then we're going to see some hurt. I don't think the market is done dropping. I know, market timers are losers but I've never been hurt sitting on the sidelines for a while. It's cost me a bit when an upturn hits but I didn't ride a bear market down. It doesn't cost that much to get out and back in the market. My 2 cents.
There is an interesting mathematical principle that makes avoiding a loss more important than catching a gain. If you start with $100,000 and you take a 20% haircut, you now have $80,000. In order to get back to where you started, you need a 25% gain just to break even. With you excellent timing beating the haircut, whenever it turns around, if you wait so long you miss half the ride back up, you’ll be miles ahead of those who rode it all the way down and back. Of course, taxes can have an impact, but some of the worst mistakes I’ve made investing involved worrying too much about the taxes and not enough about what was going on...

I'm by no means a market genius and I know you're not saying that. Had I not had some advice from a real smart financial adviser I would have been out yesterday. I just don't think this Corona Virus is done.

February 28, 2020, 05:23 PM

1967Goat

I seriously lucked into a move to cash (money market fund). The ~$600M Revenue company my wife works for was sold last fall. The new company has a different 401k, so we are rolling over her 401k into a IRA we have at Fidelity (also from a previous employer). She asked the "old" 401k to cut her a check for a rollover on Jan 7. She's been procrastinating about getting the money into Fidelity. I think the depsit went in this week (money market). It's not an insignificant amount. I'll jump back into our low cost Index funds in the next few weeks. I'm no market timer, but this was pure luck! Had she been on the stick we would've deposited the money in late January.

February 28, 2020, 06:28 PM

Sig209

quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago.

there's always one

---------------------------

February 28, 2020, 09:22 PM

Zecpull

I am expecting US manufacturing to start the process of taking the jobs back from China. There are a few companies close to me that are laying off due to supply issues.
I would love to see these jobs come back to stay.

February 29, 2020, 12:01 AM

radioman

quote:
Originally posted by Sig209:
quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago.

there's always one

---------------------------

He seemed to do well during the Dec 2018 dip too.
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...810022154#6810022154

He also made 358% on a Bitcoin trade
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...760020334#4760020334

Maybe next time he can tell his financial moves before a big market shift, rather than brag about it after the fact.

February 29, 2020, 03:23 AM

Bytes

quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
quote:
Originally posted by Sig209:
quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago.

there's always one

---------------------------

He seemed to do well during the Dec 2018 dip too.
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...810022154#6810022154

He also made 358% on a Bitcoin trade
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...760020334#4760020334

Maybe next time he can tell his financial moves before a big market shift, rather than brag about it after the fact.

Here's what I would do if I were you Radioman. Go all the fuck in right now. I mean everything. Not little 10K investments like I make, everything! JUST.DO.IT. This couldn't possibly be the start of a dead cat bounce. Enjoy the ride

February 29, 2020, 07:52 AM

dave7378

quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago. A financial adviser that I golf with told me that the Corona Virus could really fuck up supply chains, mainly from China. I'll get back in when it looks like China gets a handle on this problem. Until then we're going to see some hurt. I don't think the market is done dropping. I know, market timers are losers but I've never been hurt sitting on the sidelines for a while. It's cost me a bit when an upturn hits but I didn't ride a bear market down. It doesn't cost that much to get out and back in the market. My 2 cents.

Your timing could not have been better.

February 29, 2020, 08:09 AM

1s1k

quote:
Originally posted by Sig209:
quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago.

there's always one

---------------------------

haha

quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
quote:
Originally posted by Sig209:
quote:
Originally posted by Bytes:
Personally, I went cash about three weeks ago.

there's always one

---------------------------

He seemed to do well during the Dec 2018 dip too.
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...810022154#6810022154

He also made 358% on a Bitcoin trade
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...760020334#4760020334

Maybe next time he can tell his financial moves before a big market shift, rather than brag about it after the fact.

Nice!

February 29, 2020, 08:52 AM

Stlhead

I just happen to have invested in a box of 10 n95 masks a couple of months ago. And half of them are still unused! I plan on auctioning them all off in a couple weeks (even the used ones). I figure that I will be able to retire comfortably after that mighty haul. I just wish I had not drawn a pig snout on one of the masks with a sharpie. Pretty sure that will reduce the value of it a considerable amount, oh well too late now. If only I could have foreseen this pandemic, I could have stocked up on Irish spring as well! That shit will be like gold when the zombies rise.

February 29, 2020, 09:15 AM

old rugged cross

Good read guys

Since retirement is looming we adjusted our portfolio to near a 50/50 mix maybe 18 mons. ago It continued to preform well. But obviously not like it would of if we had left it more equity heavy. But I felt like we needed to not ride a roller coaster to any great degree at this stage. Figuring some correction and possibly a major one would be in the offing at some point in the not so distant future (my crystal ball). So while I hate to see this. We are positioned to handle it as it comes.

As it was stated in another thread and this is not verbatim. Position yourself in such a position that you are comfortable with the market as it does it's thing. Make adjustments as your situation (life) dictates. My advice is be diversified. Not just in the market. Stay committed and you won't be prone to big loss's. And maybe not huge gains. But remember if you start early. It is a long haul.

My thought process and mind set was the more I can stay on the positive side of things the better I liked it. Sure, that cost me some on huge upswings. But saved me some on the big dips.
Probably evened mostly out over the long haul. And it helped us keep our sanity

ymmv

February 29, 2020, 10:59 AM

bigwagon

I hope everyone reading this realizes that if you didn't get out of the market into cash a couple weeks ago, and kudos if you did, you would be an idiot to do it now. Just ride and out and maybe look for some bargain priced stocks.

February 29, 2020, 11:03 AM

dave7378

quote:
Originally posted by bigwagon:
I hope everyone reading this realizes that if you didn't get out of the market into cash a couple weeks ago, and kudos if you did, you would be an idiot to do it now. Just ride and out and maybe look for some bargain priced stocks.

Great point. It is only a loss if you sell and then it becomes realized.

February 29, 2020, 11:16 AM

jimmy123x

quote:
Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Good read guys Since retirement is looming we adjusted our portfolio to near a 50/50 mix maybe 18 mons. ago It continued to preform well. But obviously not like it would of if we had left it more equity heavy. But I felt like we needed to not ride a roller coaster to any great degree at this stage. Figuring some correction and possibly a major one would be in the offing at some point in the not so distant future (my crystal ball). So while I hate to see this. We are positioned to handle it as it comes.

As it was stated in another thread and this is not verbatim. Position yourself in such a position that you are comfortable with the market as it does it's thing. Make adjustments as your situation (life) dictates. My advice is be diversified. Not just in the market. Stay committed and you won't be prone to big loss's. And maybe not huge gains. But remember if you start early. It is a long haul.

My thought process and mind set was the more I can stay on the positive side of things the better I liked it. Sure, that cost me some on huge upswings. But saved me some on the big dips.
Probably evened mostly out over the long haul. And it helped us keep our sanity

ymmv

This is a very good strategy and what I was taught when I got my BS in Finance many years ago. As you get older, you don't have time or income to recover from a huge loss and should keep shifting more of your portfolio to lower risk investments as you age, plus rely on it for income when you retire.

February 29, 2020, 01:04 PM

6guns

Given my age, I've been shifting into large cap dividend stocks the last several years, but I still took it on the chin last week. As said, I have no intention of selling and may in fact take advantage of some obviously over-sold stocks. The yields on some companies (that have great long term prospects) are now very attractive.

February 29, 2020, 01:24 PM

chuck416

I have had a significant pile of cash waiting for this opportunity. But I don’t think we’ll see the bottom of this thing till perhaps mid-March, if then.

February 29, 2020, 01:30 PM

Bytes

quote:
Originally posted by chuck416:
I have had a significant pile of cash waiting for this opportunity. But I don’t think we’ll see the bottom of this thing till perhaps mid-March, if then.

Agree 100% but I'm more thinking like July. We'll see if we're right soon enough.

February 29, 2020, 01:31 PM

radioman

Guys, does anyone even recall the drop of December 2017? Now it just looks like a blip on the charts, but it was a big deal then. (Many) People had lost a lot of money and there was a huge amount of concern at that time.

Take a close look at the thread we had at that time......

https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...935/m/8980061154/p/1

I am in no way saying this Corona reaction in the market will be exactly the same, but this thread is worth looking at to see how very similar the thinking is.

One other thought about those trying to "time" their way in and out of these things...

quote:
“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.”
— John C. Bogle