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Stock Market Bargains and the Virus

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April 21, 2020, 03:28 PM
radioman
Stock Market Bargains and the Virus
quote:
Originally posted by rh:
$USO is a managed crude oil futures ticker, and it's about gone. Trading is/was halted since they are switching to become a CEF just to stay listed.

I avoid giving financial advice, but here's an article from WSJ which should be viewable by everyone:
The Fund That Ate the Oil Market


Wow, that's great info on that link. Agree anyone interested in USO should read it.

I smell a shareholder lawsuit in someone's future Smile


.
April 21, 2020, 06:06 PM
sasquatch28
First quarter earnings season has begun. This will be the first peek at the impact of the virus on earnings. I think the peek will be enough for a major swoon in the markets. Keep some powder dry and make sure you know what you are buying.

There will be bargains to be had, and limit orders are your friend.
April 21, 2020, 06:57 PM
RAMIUS
quote:
Originally posted by sasquatch28:
First quarter earnings season has begun. This will be the first peek at the impact of the virus on earnings. I think the peek will be enough for a major swoon in the markets. Keep some powder dry and make sure you know what you are buying.

There will be bargains to be had, and limit orders are your friend.


You think the current bargains will be even more bargainy?
April 21, 2020, 07:08 PM
sasquatch28
quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS:
quote:
Originally posted by sasquatch28:
First quarter earnings season has begun. This will be the first peek at the impact of the virus on earnings. I think the peek will be enough for a major swoon in the markets. Keep some powder dry and make sure you know what you are buying.

There will be bargains to be had, and limit orders are your friend.


You think the current bargains will be even more bargainy?


I try to evaluate stocks based upon their historical PE (amongst several other factors). Given that earnings are just beginning to be reported, i anticipate that most companies PE will swell when earnings tank. So, no, IMHO there are not that many true bargains right now. Very few companies are trading below their 5 and 10 year average PE.

That being said, there will be opportunities to buy very high quality companies at prices (and valuations) that are not often seen. One such opportunity was on March 23. I believe we will see similar days in the next few weeks / months.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
April 21, 2020, 07:10 PM
sourdough44
Keep your powder dry, the pain isn’t over yet.
April 22, 2020, 12:56 AM
radioman
quote:
Originally posted by rh:
$USO is a managed crude oil futures ticker, and it's about gone. Trading is/was halted since they are switching to become a CEF just to stay listed.

I avoid giving financial advice, but here's an article from WSJ which should be viewable by everyone:
The Fund That Ate the Oil Market


So if USO sucks, what is the best way to buy into oil right now?


.
April 22, 2020, 01:49 AM
midwest guy
quote:
Originally posted by sourdough44:
Keep your powder dry, the pain isn’t over yet.


Yes sir, I’d say we are in the top of the third!
April 22, 2020, 02:06 AM
jimmy123x
quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
quote:
Originally posted by rh:
$USO is a managed crude oil futures ticker, and it's about gone. Trading is/was halted since they are switching to become a CEF just to stay listed.

I avoid giving financial advice, but here's an article from WSJ which should be viewable by everyone:
The Fund That Ate the Oil Market


So if USO sucks, what is the best way to buy into oil right now?


IMO Exxon Mobil shares. They have plenty of capital expenditure that they can cut to weather the storm. They pay good dividends and it's a solid company.
April 23, 2020, 01:05 AM
rh
quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
So if USO sucks, what is the best way to buy into oil right now?


Oil royalty trusts. The ones that I have bought in the past are CRT, SJT, and SBR. There's also MTR, NRT, PHX, and PBT.

If you go the oil royalty trust route, this is lot like partial ownership of the wells. Oil royalties are considered depleting assets by the IRS (because they are), so you get to take a depletion allowance on taxes against the monthly distributions. The downside to getting a depletion allowance is that the wells eventually become depleted.
April 25, 2020, 02:43 PM
RAMIUS
Wonder how the possible death of Kim will affect the markets.
April 25, 2020, 02:50 PM
ZSMICHAEL
^^^
Ho hum. There will be another jerk to replace him.
April 29, 2020, 07:18 AM
Sig209
going to be interesting to see how the market responds to the first dose of Covid GDP numbers today


futures are up nominally


---------------------------------------------------


Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.
April 29, 2020, 08:15 AM
mrvmax
I picked up Marathon oil in the threes, it may take some time but I’m confident it will work it’s way back up. I bought some Chevron Celanese, both of which will inevitably recover. I’m in it for the long haul and when the market gets back to where it was I’ll see a great profit.
April 29, 2020, 10:31 AM
RAMIUS
quote:
Originally posted by mrvmax:
I picked up Marathon oil in the threes, it may take some time but I’m confident it will work it’s way back up. I bought some Chevron Celanese, both of which will inevitably recover. I’m in it for the long haul and when the market gets back to where it was I’ll see a great profit.


Thanks for the tip. Just got me some MRO.

I've gone bargain shopping and purchased all high quality stocks/ETFs that I plan to hold long term. Got the ones below a few weeks back.

RCL
NCLH
AAL
HAL
SLB
MRO
BA
MFA
WSBC
VTI
SPY
AMZN
DKNG (My risky bet)
April 29, 2020, 03:40 PM
MikeGLI
Good day!




NRA Life Member
Steak: Rare. Coffee: Black. Bourbon: Neat.
April 29, 2020, 05:13 PM
RAMIUS
quote:
Originally posted by MikeGLI:
Good day!


Insanely good day.
April 29, 2020, 07:15 PM
sasquatch28
The value of a company should always be evaluated upon the current and future earnings it can produce. With the current rally, we seem to be leaving that premise behind.

We are crossing a monetary and fiscal Rubicon right now with the "stimulus" that has been injected into the economic system.

Know what you own. Know what YOU value it at from a projected future earnings perspective.

To quote Kenny Rodgers, "Know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em."
April 29, 2020, 09:03 PM
bcereuss
So, is it time to sell after the big jump today? My modest portfolio is up 25% this week.
April 29, 2020, 09:08 PM
RAMIUS
quote:
Originally posted by bcereuss:
So, is it time to sell after the big jump today? My modest portfolio is up 25% this week.


Ha. Flip a coin. Good question.

I’m somehow up a ton from the beginning of all this. I went in with the opportunistic plan to buy “solid stocks” fo’ cheap and hold them long term. I think I’m gonna stick with that, I bought in at a good point.
April 29, 2020, 10:11 PM
sasquatch28
quote:
Originally posted by bcereuss:
So, is it time to sell after the big jump today? My modest portfolio is up 25% this week.


Are you an investor or a trader? What are your goals? Are your funds for a short or long term goal?Can you comfortably ride 30% + declines without cashing out?

I can only speak for myself. I am an investor. I hope to buy shares of quality companies and own them for long periods of time, where they will provide me both income and capital appreciation. I have a 10+ year timeframe to ride the waves.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: sasquatch28,