I only have two companies on my watch list of 18 high-quality dividend paying stocks that qualify as below my fair value estimates right now: GD and VZ.

My opinion is that this "market" is still overvalued and we will see a return to the DOW 18000 range in the next several months as it becomes more apparent the damage the economic shutdown has caused.

One analyst called this a ‘bear market rally’, I’m sorta in that camp. I just don’t see a quick March to Dow 30k.

One can always find a pick or two, no sense trying to time the absolute bottom either with a longer horizon.

quote:

Originally posted by sasquatch28:

My opinion is that this "market" is still overvalued and we will see a return to the DOW 18000 range in the next several months as it becomes more apparent the damage the economic shutdown has caused.

Well put. I'm also keeping powder dry for such an occasion. In addition, we're entering the "sell in May and go away" period if you put any credence into that (and I do, some at least).

Dow futures are up on news of some promising drug...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/1...ing-coronavirus.html

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
Dow futures are up on news of some promising drug...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/1...ing-coronavirus.html

Wish I had more Gilead...

quote:

Originally posted by sasquatch28:

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
Dow futures are up on news of some promising drug...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/1...ing-coronavirus.html

Wish I had more Gilead...

I think maybe Dr. Fauci has been waiting for this. Maybe now he will let us get back to work.

I live across the street from Gilead. How much would you like?

I took profits today on a long term holding. I had to do it to pay taxes and keep business open. I am not an investment professional. Self taught. JAllen knew way more. I sold it a higher price than last November when I sold a bunch for a nice profit. I never took a business course. I had not looked at my retirement funds for a year. Just saw price today and called the broker. Yeah full service, but if you want to sell today it gets done. Time rather than money again. I read Warren Buffet and the like. I self manage my retirement plans. This is a dip. If you have the money put it in. (BTW I sold most of my stocks cause I wanted to limit market risk several years ago.} I had no idea this was coming. I am too young to remember the Depression, but I learned from it. A lot. Good luck and I hope you do well. I have not read any of the thread so excuse that. All of this is a bump in the road.








Sorry for writing a book. Let me know if you have any questions.



Jim

It feels to me like the Market has hit bottom. I hope my Retirement account now starts to make a speedy recovery.

quote:

Originally posted by Lunasee:
It feels to me like the Market has hit bottom. I hope my Retirement account now starts to make a speedy recovery.

That's what it seems like. BUT, I can't see it. Even if companies opened their doors tomorrow. Earnings throughout 2020 are gone, profits are way way down.

Still feels like we have another dip coming. Anyone selling to free up some cash for another drop?

quote:

Originally posted by MikeGLI:
Still feels like we have another dip coming. Anyone selling to free up some cash for another drop?

come on guys its simple

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

this has been out awhile -- just buy the dip

previously posted but still funny as hell

---------------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

quote:

Originally posted by MikeGLI:
Still feels like we have another dip coming. Anyone selling to free up some cash for another drop?

come on guys its simple

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

this has been out awhile -- just buy the dip

---------------------------------------

Seems simple enough.

The earnings reports are indeed going to be ugly, but what keeps me guessing is that everyone has to know that already. Right?

If so, no one will be surprised and without the "OMG the earnings are bad!" how much less of a sell off should there be?

Keep in mind that there are powers that profit off volatility. Sure, everyone ought to be able to recognize that this year is going to be ugly, profit wise, but those powers will amplify the price swings in an effort to buy lower and sell higher. ATM (imo) we're in the upper third of an upswing...

Efficient market theory is dead-ish. What did Buffet* say? "In the Short-Run, the Market Is a Voting Machine, But in the Long-Run, the Market Is a Weighing Machine"
(*w/ obligatory hat tip to Benjamin Graham)

quote:

Originally posted by apprentice:
The earnings reports are indeed going to be ugly, but what keeps me guessing is that everyone has to know that already. Right?

If so, no one will be surprised and without the "OMG the earnings are bad!" how much less of a sell off should there be?

I think it is a matter of how bad and what guidance is from here. Pretty much all of our really big companies get a lot of business from overseas markets also and that is a huge unknown as to how their economies are going to be recovering. Small businesses are being absolutely decimated and the tens of millions of Americans work for them are being very negatively impacted too. It will take a long time for them to recover.

I am in the camp that we are probably going to see another major downturn from here. Not so sure now is "buying the dip" considering the record 20% plus run up in stock prices in the last couple of weeks.

Interesting article on Morningstar on navigating bear markets using the past as a guide with detailed charts.

"What Prior Market Crashes Can Teach Us About Navigating the Current One"

https://www.morningstar.com/fe...can-teach-us-in-2020

One of the charts.

I'm a bull at this point

I'll leave the technical analysis to others as to whether we 'retest the lows'

but the coronavirus is NOT going to cause the widespread death that was initially feared and projected by some : ie hundreds of thousands of dead Americans

the drumbeat grows louder and louder every day to open the economy back up - even if incrementally

'modified' social / business interaction will begin very soon

we WILL get a therapy at some point. we WILL get a vaccine at some point.

hundreds of thousands - if not millions - have already had coronavirus (untested) and recovered after only mild symptoms

the idea of 'flattening the curve' was based around overwhelming the healthcare systems and the 'shortage' of ventilators. now we have seen that mechanical ventilation -- the system limitation -- is NOT a great therapy for MANY of the worst afflicted -- so the 'lock down' measures are made borderline irrelevant. many hospitals are quiet and laying off staff.

we will have a disastrous quarter or two but the market has largely priced that in already

in short -- I don't see any 'Worse' news coming out regarding the disease. the news / prognosis will only improve.

the economy will improve in fits and starts and the market will follow.

i have DCA'd into various stocks and VTI and am happy to have done so

prediction: Dow 27,500 by YE 2020.

Over 30,000 in 2021 if DJT is re-elected

----------------------------------

There are bulls bears and pigs. It is that simple. Which are you?

Anyone have thoughts on buying OIH?

VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF

And anything you guys keeping your eye on stock/investment wise? I need something to do this weekend, figure I'll do some research.

Thanks again for the insight.

Trying to learn about investing for the long term. I'm using TD Ameritrade, but I have no idea how to choose a good mutual fund...if anyone wants to share their knowledge. Please do.

I'm looking at Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares...but I have no idea if it's something I should put my money into. Let's say I have 15k to invest...is that a good fund?