That's still going to be 24 hours of 70-110 mph winds over some areas. With feet of rain. No matter how you cut it, it's gonna be bad.
Knowing what one is talking about is widely admired but not strictly required here.
Although sometimes distracting, there is often a certain entertainment value to this easy standard. -JALLEN
"All I need is a WAR ON DRUGS reference and I got myself a police thread BINGO." -jljones
September 13, 2018, 04:36 AM
Hangtime
Weather industries latest example of hype and exaggeration.
Gone from Cat 4 at landfall to what now. People who live on the coast should shelter in place.
Evacuation has screwed up the logistic of much of central NC. Has proven how utterly overpopulated NC has become.
September 13, 2018, 06:19 AM
trapper189
Jim Cantore's not even going to get out of bed for this.
Early evacuations are necessary because by the time you know what the storm is going to do, it's too late to do anything about it. The 5 day forecasts are not particularly reliable, but they are all we have. The hurricane's strength can go the other way as well. The day before Charley made landfall in Florida, the prediction was it would be a Cat. 2. Instead, it was at the high end of Cat. 4.This message has been edited. Last edited by: trapper189,
September 13, 2018, 08:03 AM
sdy
NOAA 8am on 13 Sep 2018
ET is Zulu - 4 hours
0900Z = 0500 ET
0500 Thu 110 mph at initial location circle 1400 Thu 110 at first H circle 0200 Fri 105 at second H circle 1400 Fri 80 at third H circle (inland) 0200 Sat 60 at first S circle 0200 Sun 35 at first D circle
September 13, 2018, 08:25 AM
sdy
NOAA 8 am Rain forecast
September 13, 2018, 08:26 AM
HRK
Its always "hype and exaggeration" when the event isn't as bad as originally predicted and it's mismanagement, incompetence and inept when the event exceeds the prediction...
Better to have people leave early and return to homes alive than the alternative.
I get the frustration at being hyped up it's just part and partial to experiencing these events, since Katrina you'll never see a Hurricane not taken seriously...
You really never know what they are going to do, as said this could just as easily gone to a Cat 5 as a Cat 2.
September 13, 2018, 09:05 AM
Micropterus
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
NOAA 8 am Rain forecast
I'm in that lone yellow dot in SE Virginia.
_____________ "I enter a swamp as a sacred place—a sanctum sanctorum. There is the strength—the marrow of Nature." - Henry David Thoreau
September 13, 2018, 09:25 AM
bigdeal
quote:
Originally posted by HRK: Its always "hype and exaggeration" when the event isn't as bad as originally predicted and it's mismanagement, incompetence and inept when the event exceeds the prediction...
Better to have people leave early and return to homes alive than the alternative.
I get the frustration at being hyped up it's just part and partial to experiencing these events, since Katrina you'll never see a Hurricane not taken seriously...
You really never know what they are going to do, as said this could just as easily gone to a Cat 5 as a Cat 2.
The problem here is credibility. As someone who's lived in Central Florida for over 50 years, I can tell you that the media over-hyping these storms damages their credibility and in the long run, results in people ignoring them when they over promise and the storms under-deliver. 'That' is a dangerous situation. Not unlike all other news items, accuracy in reporting, even if it didn't generate as many clicks to websites and eyeballs on TV channels, would serve everyone much better. But we live in reality TV times, and the media has embraced that role in an effort to line their pockets.
----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
September 13, 2018, 09:29 AM
Georgeair
quote:
Originally posted by Hangtime: Weather industries latest example of hype and exaggeration.
Gone from Cat 4 at landfall to what now. People who live on the coast should shelter in place.
We could always go back to 1900 when the first hint Galveston got was a warning from Cuba 6 days in advance which were ignored as exaggerated and irrelevant.
quote:
The problem here is credibility. As someone who's lived in Central Florida for over 50 years, I can tell you that the media over-hyping these storms damages their credibility and in the long run, results in people ignoring them when they over promise and the storms under-deliver. 'That' is a dangerous situation.
100% agree, and it's unfortunate that the cycle of overhype/ignore builds up until another under-estimated (by the people) miss costs a lot of lives.
Meteorology is a little hard for the average guy to get good info on, let alone grasp just he facts instead of the headlines.
You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02
September 13, 2018, 09:52 AM
HRK
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal: The problem here is credibility. As someone who's lived in Central Florida for over 50 years, I can tell you that the media over-hyping these storms damages their credibility and in the long run, results in people ignoring them when they over promise and the storms under-deliver. 'That' is a dangerous situation. Not unlike all other news items, accuracy in reporting, even if it didn't generate as many clicks to websites and eyeballs on TV channels, would serve everyone much better. But we live in reality TV times, and the media has embraced that role in an effort to line their pockets.
Katrina effect, its never going to stop...
No doubt, since we're in the same neighborhood We've sat through the days of WAGD! reporting, dirty laundry, stories that sell, thats the way of the news world, and hey, the hurricane exploitation reporters have all that pent up energy...
I do agree it can get hyped, but again, if they didn't we'd bitch that we didn't know enough to get out of the way and blame them,
One way, too much info and folks sensitivities are upset, the other way not enough info, and people die....
September 13, 2018, 09:58 AM
sdy
NOAA 11 am
The outer edge of Florence has hit land
This is the light blue > 39 mph band (not hurricane levels)
The eye of the storm is still about 140 miles out to sea
September 13, 2018, 10:02 AM
bigdeal
quote:
Originally posted by HRK: One way, too much info and folks sensitivities are upset, the other way not enough info, and people die....
In the current environment of social media, TV, and the web, its virtually impossible to not get enough information to make an educated decision on what to do about a storm. Its media 'hype' that infuriates me. It poisons people's interaction with the media, destroys trust, and lays the groundwork for people to ignore warnings when they shouldn't. The media (and the weather community too) totally monopolizes on these weather events to drive clicks to their sites, and eyeballs to their channels. All of that equals more $$$ for their owners, which is the ultimate goal.
----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
September 13, 2018, 10:16 AM
MarinetoRN
Water's rising on the shorelines of the twin rivers and in the sound. Boat launch areas that I've seen are starting to be under water already. And the rain hasn't even started.
SiGArm'd
P220ST X2, 1911 Revolution, P245, P229 RTTEQ/ST .40 X2, P226ST, Mosquito Other weaponry not SIG
Glocks are ugly. I don't like repeat offenders, I like dead offenders.
September 13, 2018, 10:17 AM
BamaJeepster
Frying Pan Tower has a direct view of the hurricane when it comes in. Here is their live webcam.
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” - John Adams
September 13, 2018, 10:18 AM
HRK
Well we could ban Hurricanes and stop the reporting
September 13, 2018, 01:01 PM
sdy
NOAA 2 pm
eye of storm is roughly 110 miles off shore moving at 10 mph max sustained wind at 105 mph
The bands around the eye: light blue > 39 mph green > 58 brown > 74
zoom in pic
zoom out pic
September 13, 2018, 01:33 PM
Woodman
The Frying Pan Tower live feed is intense. Is that 100+ mph?
September 13, 2018, 01:34 PM
festus haggen
How high's the water, mama? Five feet high and risin' How high's the water, papa? Five feet high and risin'
Johnny Cash
Golden lads and girls all must, As chimney-sweepers, come to dust.
And here is a video of water over washing the dunes just North of Hatteras Village where we have our beach house. I ubderstand that this is now a breach of the island and the ocean and sound are now connected ...
