Tropical Storm Florence (East Coast)

September 12, 2018, 02:58 PM

Sigmanic

quote:
One of the latest reports estimated waves at 83' in Atlantic. Hello?

I think that is in the big-ass category....from the big-ass wave scale, if my meteorology memory is correct.

September 12, 2018, 03:21 PM

Oz_Shadow

Watching a hurricane come in reminds me of a very dangerous version of the Plinko game on the Price is Right

September 12, 2018, 03:24 PM

mbinky

quote:
Originally posted by stiab:
quote:
Originally posted by mbinky:
Buddy of mine from Boston txt me this...

Where in E. NC are you?

I'm in Hubert. I punched out this AM to a friends house just west of Durham. Hopefully I'll be able to head back Monday morning. A few friends stayed back. They're bracing for it. Right now water looks like it will be the biggest threat, especially with all the rain we have had this summer.

September 12, 2018, 04:14 PM

sdy

NOAA 5pm track forecast

zoom in version:

full version:

September 12, 2018, 04:15 PM

smlsig

Just came back from a suicide run to Hatteras to board up our beach house. The island was virtually deserted with just a few of the locals vowing to ride it out.
As is usually the case the weather was beautiful but very muggy.

It looks like Flo will turn South and we may just get a glancing blow. Hope the folks further South fare well and get out of dodge before it hits.

September 12, 2018, 04:17 PM

chellim1

quote:
NOAA 5pm track forecast

Adjusted a little farther south?

"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor

September 12, 2018, 04:37 PM

sdy

quote:
Adjusted a little farther south?

I think the 5pm track is generally about as "south" as the 2pm track forecast

The last two circles on the 5pm track represent < 39 mph sustained wind

you can see that Florence is about 400 miles off shore

At present, the hurricane force winds extend about 75 miles from the center. (roughly 150 mile diameter)

About 300 mile diameter for winds > 39 mph

September 12, 2018, 06:09 PM

lyman

interesting wind map

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...0/loc=-77.278,37.382

September 12, 2018, 07:55 PM

Bulldog7972

I'm flying down to Orlando Friday. I wonder if this will have an impact on my flight and if so, how so.

September 12, 2018, 08:04 PM

Scuba Steve Sig

quote:
Originally posted by Georgeair:
One of the latest reports estimated waves at 83' in Atlantic. Hello?

Current marine traffic

That'll clear out some traffic.

Scrolling over the ships in the doughnut around this thing I came upon one named "A Salt Weapon". Ha!

September 12, 2018, 09:04 PM

sdy

https://www.richmond.com/weath...73-325372b61a42.html

The storm surge may inundate some areas between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout with 9 to 13 feet of water.

The heaviest rain will descend on the area where it makes its slow landfall. A wide area between Myrtle Beach, S.C., and Cape Lookout, N.C., could see 20 inches of rain from Thursday to Sunday, with the potential of a few spots seeing up to 40 inches.

September 12, 2018, 10:00 PM

mbinky

Like I told the boys, I am not a pussy... BUT. "water over wind". As of last night water was higher than the wind. That means EVACUATE.

I know the CG gave special libo to the boys to go 500 miles away without putting in for leave. Most have evacuated.

I have spent more than a few times on the Vineyard or the Cape in bad storms. Winds make me laugh. Water makes me cry. You can survive a wind storm, water sneaks up and traps you.

I am currently just west of Durham. Hopefully more take heed.

September 12, 2018, 10:22 PM

cslinger

I hate wind / tornados scare the bejezzus out of me. That being said I have a close friend who has worked for the Army Corps of Engineers for basically ever and has always said. “Wind might do some damage but water is the most powerful force on this planet, wind didn’t carve the Grand Canyon”

I’d just as soon not deal with either.

Prayers and best wishes to all first and foremost keep you and yours safe. After that may all your stuff weather ole’ , pissed off Mom Nature.

September 12, 2018, 10:24 PM

Micropterus

It's down to a Cat 2 and hitting as a Cat 2 or 1 according to local news.

September 12, 2018, 10:30 PM

sdy

NOAA 11 pm

You can marry the velocity chart to the points on the forecast track

present wind 110 mph
hits land at 110, quickly drops to 90 mph

first S circle at 70 mph
second S circle at 45 mph

September 12, 2018, 10:39 PM

jimmy123x

quote:
Originally posted by Micropterus:
It's down to a Cat 2 and hitting as a Cat 2 or 1 according to local news.

That is excellent news. A category 1 usually doesn't blow much down unless it was ready to fall down already. A 2 is easily survivable in a well built and well maintained structure.....They 3-4 it was calling for before would be a heck of a lot of devastation. Hopefully there isn't much surge nor flooding.

September 12, 2018, 10:47 PM

Micropterus

September 12, 2018, 10:52 PM

SIG4EVA

quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
quote:
Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
This should be a lot fun! I finally get to whip out my generator. I was already stocked up on food and water but hit the store for snacks and random stuff. Went to fill up my gas cans, and all the pumps were empty except 89 oct ethanol free, good deal. I have 2 propane tanks and 8 gallons of gas so I think I'll be OK with my Champion 3500 peak 3200 running inverter generator. Just need to keep on the refrigerators and lights. Kind of wish I had gotten the interlock installed. I will keep you guys posted once it gets closer.

Email me if you need any help getting power to things. I can walk you through one time emergency set up to get you power in the house.

ETA anyone who needs help on figuring out loads or what mixes of things are OK to run together, email me. I will try to help anyone who has genny questions.

Thank you Skins, email sent.

I went ahead and grabbed another 5 gallon can and filled it up so I have 13 gallons now. It looks like it might push further south so hoping we make it out easier.