September 27, 2018, 01:05 PM
JALLENSwingSeat Update: Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst
A swing through the best/worst realistic scenarios for both parties.Weekly Standard
David Byler
Since we launched SwingSeat, THE WEEKLY STANDARD's stats-powered Senate forecast, I’ve been periodically writing “SwingSeat Update” pieces to explain why the model is coming up with the predictions it’s coming up with.
But today, I want to give readers a more detailed sense of the spread of plausible outcomes and get a handle on some of the unlikely-but-not-quite-worst-case-scenarios for both parties. The basic goal here is to emphasize the uncertainty of the forecast and show readers that they need to be looking at the error around every forecast, not just the most likely outcome.
[Here an interesting analysis of the potetial Senate outcomes this fall, too lengthy and chart filled to cut and paste here.]
https://www.weeklystandard.com...est-expect-the-worst