^ ^ ^ ^
That's a brilliant video! All of us need to watch it, especially the younger of us.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
Siri says:"No."

In each of the prior paradigm shifts, if you could see far enough, you could see both sides of the equation. You could see the professions that were being crushed, you could see the professions that were booming.

We're definitely in a paradigm shift now, and we have vastly better visibility of what's going on than they had in the prior instances. We can see the professions being crused. We can see those that seem to be lined up in front of the crusher. We can see some that are booming. But as far as I can see, the number don't nearly line up. The number getting crushed are much larger. And, of course, there's the whole globalization thing going on, which isn't helping the situation here.

I would suspect that at some point in the future, cockpits inhabited by humans will be a thing of the past. I imagine 14 CFR Part 121 Air Transportation will go the way of the UAV with a "pilot" operating the flight in a room full of other "pilots" operating their flights with a Flight Ops Supervisor looking over the shoulder of the 3 or 4 flights for which he is responsible. I don't even want to think about the outcome if something should go Tango Uniform, ala, Sully in the Hudson.

Thanks to God almighty I'll be retired by then, but no thank you...I don't wish to be on ANY of those "unmanned" flights.

I wrote a bit of software once that replace 15 full time positions. I was hated for it even though all 15 positions got to do something new and less repetitive. Most of those ended up taking even better jobs, within the same company, than they had after they were moved due to the initial change. So kill jobs, probably not. Provide new opportunities, yeah it might particularly if you’re not a slug.

One job that.wont be replaced is a politician. I can see it now; fried circuit boards.

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by Aeteocles:

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:

quote:

Originally posted by rusbro:
What is it that humans can do that robots/AI won't ever be able to do, and can we keep billions employed doing those things?

File sexual harassment lawsuits.

Sure, Lawyers self-perpetuate. The more we have, the more we need. Ultimately, the need for lawyers is infinite.

Lawyering is already being outsourced. Electronic document searches has significantly reduced the need for research clerks and law librarians. A single lawyer can handle a significantly larger case load due to automation and computerization.

AI is next. The prediction is that AI will be able to handle most cases where one simply applies fact to existing law, and will soon be able to do it more effectively than a human. It's the arguing of how new circumstances are similar to existing fact-applied-to-law combos that will be a challenge for first gen AI.

How do you translate that into sound advice?

Statistical odds for probable outcomes.

quote:

Originally posted by Aeteocles:

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by Aeteocles:

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:

quote:

Originally posted by rusbro:
What is it that humans can do that robots/AI won't ever be able to do, and can we keep billions employed doing those things?

File sexual harassment lawsuits.

Sure, Lawyers self-perpetuate. The more we have, the more we need. Ultimately, the need for lawyers is infinite.

Lawyering is already being outsourced. Electronic document searches has significantly reduced the need for research clerks and law librarians. A single lawyer can handle a significantly larger case load due to automation and computerization.

AI is next. The prediction is that AI will be able to handle most cases where one simply applies fact to existing law, and will soon be able to do it more effectively than a human. It's the arguing of how new circumstances are similar to existing fact-applied-to-law combos that will be a challenge for first gen AI.

How do you translate that into sound advice?

Statistical odds for probable outcomes.

You mean like Long Term Capital Management?

I drive a forklift, so it most likely will. Currently my tasks require lots of human decision making and maneuvering that would be hard to program. Of course these issues could all be solved at a board meeting with streamlining and simplifying.

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
Siri says:"No."

Siri now wants to know if I have been talking to Alexa.

And I swear I heard whispering coming from the kitchen last night, and I live alone...

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:
You mean like Long Term Capital Management?

I see your point.

But, I daresay that the legal system is built on the concept of consistent application of case law, where results *should* be predictable. Where case law evolves, it should happen in incremental and undramatic ways, lest things end up in appeal.

Lawyering seems really ripe for AI. It's got a finite body of case law and statutes to learn from, and given enough data, can learn particular outcomes based on individual judges and jury demographics. In fact, because of the record keeping the judicial system uses (court reporting and the like), a powerful enough AI could even use statistical analysis to find which words or concepts are most persuasive or probative to a particular judge or jury pool--you could get the thing to start writing briefs and motions in no time.

Pair a smart AI with a smooth talking actor with a law degree and the rest of us are going to be out of a job---or will have to switch jobs teaching the AI to interpret case laws.

quote:

Originally posted by jhe888:
I think Shumpeter is right. Technology will destroy some jobs, and create others.

We've seen this for . . . lets say the last 2 or 3 thousand years.

This.

quote:

Originally posted by rwdflynavy:
This time is different. I lead an industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems. Here's a video that may help.

Humans Need Not Apply https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

This is a fun video but they sure are taking liberty with the truth.

For example, they say that "self driving cars are here now", ignoring all of their well-known limitations, and then go on to talk about how the self driving cars are going to cause millions of humans in the transpiration industry to become immediately unemployed. BS.

I participated in the DARPA Urban Challenge for autonomous vehicles back in 2007. There were many who claimed the cars were ready back then. It's been 11 years now and they still have the same perception issues we had back then using Lidar, radar, and machine vision.

Just about every vehicle shown in that video was using the Velodyne HDL-64 Lidar for their primary perception system. That system costs $75k just for the Lidar, way too expensive for the mainstream auto industry. Cheaper systems exist but are still working to gain the resolution needed for safe/reliable driving.

Notice anything about where Google has been driving their Waymo cars? All areas with dry and/or stable weather. Currently Lidar DOES NOT WORK in any heavy rain, fog, snow, or dust storms. And machine vision still has big issues with low light and high glare conditions (like dusk and dawn).

It's going to be a long time before we have affordable perception systems that can replace all human drivers when weather is considered. And most of this country outside of the silicon valley bubble has those inclement weather conditions as a normal part of daily life.

Everybody get your privates ready. We'll all be doing sex work, as that will probably be the last thing the 'droids do better than a talented human.

With my job as a technician in a factory I feel pretty good about my job security. I have to fix plenty of automation every week.

No more livery stables, black smiths, many more gas stations, mechanics.

Having seen it first hand, I feel I can comment on this subject with some experience.

Back in the late 80s, early 90s, we started to get more and more automation where I worked.
Machines that would screw an oil filter onto an auto engine or a machine that would install and torque the head bolts. We were told that though we were losing people that do those jobs, someone would have to work on those machines and that is a higher paying job.

Over the years after that, we continually saw more automation and less workers, while the maintenance department continued at the same rate.
When I retired, we had about 1/3 the workers in production that we had before all the automation. Again maintenance remained the same, but as I was retiring, they were in the process of cutting maintenance as well.

Now, given that, I realize someone somewhere had to be making those machines and I also realize that a lot of machines were helping make those machines.
My conclusion is that they do hurt jobs. Someone might say but they are better at doing the job, well I say have you ever tried to get the oil filter off a new car engine??
I do remember times when our robots were breaking down, due to a switch that instead of cost $2 cost us $25 and when we ran out a few times, it was days before we could get them back in stock. There were times when a machine would break down and we would have to fly parts in through a private air service at great expense.

quote:

Originally posted by rusbro:
Everybody get your privates ready. We'll all be doing sex work, as that will probably be the last thing the 'droids do better than a talented human.

In the sex department AI and Robotics are looking to fill a need, we're being replicated as we speak, (well you and I aren't, but soon you'll be able to order your very own Stormy Daniels Doll complete with interactive AI and robotics.

While there isn't any "sex" on the video you may see a "nude" or undressed robots female body, it's a documentary thing, may not be appropriate at work..

Its Freaky, a plus is, you want a Blonde, bing press button on your AI App,

Meet Harmony the Sex Robot Video Linky thing

Pretty sure we'll have VR sexual programming, apps, and it will be interactive as well

Perhaps the jobs will be out of work hookers assembling robotic sex partners you can rent while at a convention in Vegas....

Have you seen HBO's Westworld?

This may not end well, but we can have fun getting there.

I can't wait for full automation at minimum wage jobs, like working for Walmart/McD's etc, in places like Seattle.

$15.00 an hour minimum wage. Nah, we'll automate and you can go suck eggs...