A recent article in The Guardian dons the foreboding title "Robots will destroy our jobs -- and we're not ready for it." The article claims, "For every job created by robotic automation, several more will be eliminated entirely. ... This disruption will have a devastating impact on our workforce." According to an article in MIT Technology Review, business researchers Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee believe that rapid technological change has been destroying jobs faster than it is creating them, contributing to the stagnation of median income and the growth of inequality in the United States.
If technology is destroying jobs faster than it's creating them, it is the first time in human history that it's done so. Actually, the number of jobs is unlimited, for the simple reason that human wants are unlimited -- or they don't frequently reveal their bounds. People always want more of something that will create a job for someone. To suggest that there are a finite number of jobs commits an error known as the "lump of labor fallacy." That fallacy suggests that when automation or technology eliminates a job, there's nothing that people want that would create employment for the person displaced by the automation. In other words, all human wants have been satisfied.
Let's look at a few examples. In 1790, farmers were 90 percent of the U.S. labor force. By 1900, only about 41 percent of our workers were employed in agriculture. Today less than 3 percent of Americans are employed in agriculture. And it's a good thing. If 90 percent or 41 percent of our labor force were still employed in agriculture, where in the world would we find the workforce to produce all those goods and services that weren't around in 1790 or 1900, such as cars, aircraft, TVs, computers, aircraft carriers, etc.? Indeed, if technology had not destroyed all of those agricultural jobs, we would be a much, much poorer nation.
What about the claim that our manufacturing jobs are going to China -- a claim that's fueling the Trump administration to impose trade barriers? It is true that between 2001 and 2013, 3.2 million jobs were outsourced to China. However, in the same time frame, China lost about 4.5 million manufacturing jobs, compared with the loss of 3.1 million in the U.S. Job loss is the trend among the top 10 manufacturing countries, which produce 75 percent of the world's manufacturing output (the U.S., Japan, Germany, China, Britain, France, Italy, South Korea, Canada and Mexico). Only Italy has managed not to lose factory jobs since 2000. Nonetheless, the U.S. remains a major force in global manufacturing.
Because of automation, the U.S. worker is now three times as productive as in 1980 and twice as productive as in 2000. It's productivity gains, rather than outsourcing and imports, that explain most of our manufacturing job loss.
If our manufacturing sector were its own economy and had its own gross domestic product, it would be the seventh-largest in the world. Total manufacturing value could be as high as $5.5 trillion. In other words, about 17 percent of global manufacturing activity happens in the United States, and America dominates advanced manufacturing. According to the Alliance for American Manufacturing, U.S. manufacturing employs a large percentage of the workers who are trained in fields related to science, technology, engineering and math. It employs 37 percent of architectural and engineering workers and 16 percent of life, physical and social scientists.
Economist Joseph Schumpeter described this process of technological change. He called it "creative destruction." Technology and innovation destroy some jobs while creating many others. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. labor force in 1950 was 62 million. By 2000, it was 79 million, and it's projected to reach 192 million by 2050. Though the "creative destruction" process works hardships on some people who lose their jobs and are forced to take lower-paying jobs, any attempt to impede the process would make all of us worse off.
Luckily, I have enough willpower to control the driving ambition that rages within me.
When you had the votes, we did things your way. Now, we have the votes and you will be doing things our way. This lesson in political reality from Lyndon B. Johnson
"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." - Justice Janice Rogers Brown
February 21, 2018, 10:21 AM
egregore
Every new technological development "kills jobs" to a degree. I'm sure the makers of buggy whips were pretty dismayed when automobiles replaced the horse. As to robots specifically, well, somebody has to design, build, maintain and repair the machines, don't they? Where a job gets "killed," more and different jobs spring up.
February 21, 2018, 10:23 AM
italia
Artificial intelligence will kill jobs faster in the coming decades than automation did in the past few decades. My opinion.
------------------------------------------------------ Though we choose between reality and madness It's either sadness or euphoria
February 21, 2018, 10:26 AM
jhe888
I think Shumpeter is right. Technology will destroy some jobs, and create others.
We've seen this for . . . lets say the last 2 or 3 thousand years.
The fish is mute, expressionless. The fish doesn't think because the fish knows everything.
February 21, 2018, 10:32 AM
Lord Vaalic
That article could have been word for word about the auto industry in the 80's
Don't weep for the stupid, or you will be crying all day
February 21, 2018, 10:40 AM
Crom
I am still sort of pissed that my apprenticeship as a Blacksmith was a wasted time and expense.
Then, I took a retraining course as a Butter Churner, but automation took that job!
grrrrr......
"Crom is strong! If I die, I have to go before him, and he will ask me, 'What is the riddle of steel?' If I don't know it, he will cast me out of Valhalla and laugh at me."
February 21, 2018, 10:41 AM
Sig209
quote:
Originally posted by italia: Artificial intelligence will kill jobs faster in the coming decades than automation did in the past few decades. My opinion.
I agree. AI and advanced robotics are the coming job-killers.
I don't think the 'servicer-of-the-machine' jobs will replace tham at a one-for-one rate.
His numbers appear to back-up my claim:
"Economist Joseph Schumpeter described this process of technological change. He called it "creative destruction." Technology and innovation destroy some jobs while creating many others. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. labor force in 1950 was 62 million. By 2000, it was 79 million..."
The population of the US grew 130M between 1950 and 2000 (from 150M to 280M) but only added 17M more jobs.
A similar employment rate in 2000 as compared to 1960 should have equaled about 112M in the labor force.
The numbers may be off a bit but the overall point is - 'technology' made workers more efficient thereby eliminating many jobs. The trend I believe will accelerate greatly.
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Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.
February 21, 2018, 10:47 AM
Chris17404
Do the new types of jobs created by modern technology provide a better, or at least equal, quality/meaningful life than the older jobs that technology destroys provided?
February 21, 2018, 10:50 AM
rusbro
quote:
Originally posted by jhe888: I think Shumpeter is right. Technology will destroy some jobs, and create others.
We've seen this for . . . lets say the last 2 or 3 thousand years.
I think robotics and AI is a different beast. What about when the new "jobs" that are created can also be done by computers and robots for less money and less hassle than humans? What is it that humans can do that robots/AI won't ever be able to do, and can we keep billions employed doing those things?
February 21, 2018, 11:03 AM
parabellum
February 21, 2018, 11:11 AM
DoctorSolo
Im not the least bit worried about it.
February 21, 2018, 11:14 AM
jhe888
They thought automation on the farm in the late 18th through the early 20th centuries was different.
And the world has become a very different place since it no longer takes 70% of the world's population to grow the food. Very different indeed.
But it didn't destroy humanity. This is the same.
I'd offer to bet you on it, but we won't live that long, so I'll never collect.
The fish is mute, expressionless. The fish doesn't think because the fish knows everything.
February 21, 2018, 11:16 AM
Fenris
quote:
Originally posted by rusbro: What is it that humans can do that robots/AI won't ever be able to do, and can we keep billions employed doing those things?
File sexual harassment lawsuits.
Sure, Lawyers self-perpetuate. The more we have, the more we need. Ultimately, the need for lawyers is infinite.
The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People again must learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. ~ Cicero 55 BC
The Dhimocrats love America like ticks love a hound.
February 21, 2018, 11:23 AM
vinnybass
Leisure - XTC
Leisure They taught me how to work, But they can't teach me how to shirk correctly. As you see, Science once again robs us of our jobs. They've put a micro-chip in my place, I hide behind screen of aggression nowadays, It's just a way of saving some face. So now I'm permanently drunk, Like the rest of the race with, Leisure. If you think I'm clowning, I assure you that I'm drowning here in, Leisure They taught me how to work, But they can't teach me how to shirk correctly. I spend all day, And all my allowance on T.V. games. Amusement heaven at the flick of a switch. Instead of a lathe I busy my fingers nowadays, By scoring goals with the gentlest twitch. I've forgotten how to use my legs to invade the pitch. Leisure If you think I'm clowning, I assure you that I'm drowning here in, Leisure They taught me how to work, But they can't teach me how to shirk correctly. They had retired me 'fore I left school, (just saw no point in the standing in line) So I spend lots of time lounging at home, (why not come in 'cause the carpet is fine) What a waste of breath it is, Searching for the jobs that don't exist. So now I'm permanently drunk, Like the rest of the race with, Leisure. If you think I'm clowning, I assure you that I'm drowning here in, Leisure They taught me how to work, But they can't teach me how to shirk correctly. Lazybones, looking through The Sun How'd you ever expect to find your day's work ...?
"We're all travelers in this world. From the sweet grass to the packing house. Birth 'til death. We travel between the eternities."
February 21, 2018, 11:49 AM
Aeteocles
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
quote:
Originally posted by rusbro: What is it that humans can do that robots/AI won't ever be able to do, and can we keep billions employed doing those things?
File sexual harassment lawsuits.
Sure, Lawyers self-perpetuate. The more we have, the more we need. Ultimately, the need for lawyers is infinite.
Lawyering is already being outsourced. Electronic document searches has significantly reduced the need for research clerks and law librarians. A single lawyer can handle a significantly larger case load due to automation and computerization.
AI is next. The prediction is that AI will be able to handle most cases where one simply applies fact to existing law, and will soon be able to do it more effectively than a human. It's the arguing of how new circumstances are similar to existing fact-applied-to-law combos that will be a challenge for first gen AI.
February 21, 2018, 12:24 PM
HRK
quote:
Lawyering is already being outsourced. Electronic document searches has significantly reduced the need for research clerks and law librarians. A single lawyer can handle a significantly larger case load due to automation and computerization.
All that means is you'll have more practicing lawyers
February 21, 2018, 12:47 PM
rusbro
Keep in mind, we are now experimenting with computers that can learn, partly through trial and error, at speeds thousands or even millions of times faster than we can. They'll learn to do things sometimes in ways we'd of never even considered. This will apply to both things done strictly "on screen," as well as things in the physical world, when paired with robotics.
February 21, 2018, 02:40 PM
JALLEN
quote:
Originally posted by Aeteocles:
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
quote:
Originally posted by rusbro: What is it that humans can do that robots/AI won't ever be able to do, and can we keep billions employed doing those things?
File sexual harassment lawsuits.
Sure, Lawyers self-perpetuate. The more we have, the more we need. Ultimately, the need for lawyers is infinite.
Lawyering is already being outsourced. Electronic document searches has significantly reduced the need for research clerks and law librarians. A single lawyer can handle a significantly larger case load due to automation and computerization.
AI is next. The prediction is that AI will be able to handle most cases where one simply applies fact to existing law, and will soon be able to do it more effectively than a human. It's the arguing of how new circumstances are similar to existing fact-applied-to-law combos that will be a challenge for first gen AI.
How do you translate that into sound advice?
Luckily, I have enough willpower to control the driving ambition that rages within me.
When you had the votes, we did things your way. Now, we have the votes and you will be doing things our way. This lesson in political reality from Lyndon B. Johnson
"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." - Justice Janice Rogers Brown
February 21, 2018, 02:48 PM
sigmonkey
Siri says:"No."
"the meaning of life, is to give life meaning" ✡ Ani Yehudi אני יהודי Le'olam lo shuv לעולם לא שוב!
February 21, 2018, 03:18 PM
rwdflynavy
This time is different. I lead an industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems. Here's a video that may help.
