Current estimate $67 billion. WTF!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/mone...r-AAuUBOc?li=BBnb7Kz

It’s billions of dollars over budget and seven years behind schedule, and appears to have no plausible way of living up to its goal of getting riders across the state in three hours or less.

Welcome to what’s arguably the nation’s largest infrastructure project and California’s biggest boondoggle.

The highly hyped bullet train has been a challenge from the start. No one thought it would be technically, financially and politically easy, but the way the project has been mishandled has some Californians fed up and demanding answers.

Just this week, the California High-Speed Rail Authority, the organization charged with overseeing construction, reported that the cost of the first segment had dramatically risen – again.

“The worst-case scenario has happened,” admitted Roy Hill, lead consultant on the project.

Since its start, this hot-mess express of a project has been plagued by delays and has blown through every single budget estimate imaginable. And it’ll likely cost the state and taxpayers more in the coming months and years.

Much more.

“The so-called bullet train is a solution in search of a problem that is plagued by billions of dollars in cost overruns and fiscal mismanagement,” San Diego City Councilman Mark Kersey told Fox News. “The billions being wasted on this boondoggle could have been invested in our current infrastructure needs, such as water storage, flood control, highways and bridges.”

This week’s updated cost estimate -- to complete just the first phase - a 119-mile segment in the Central Valley - has ballooned to $10.6 billion. That’s a jaw-dropping 77 percent increase from initial estimates, 36 percent higher than forecasts from a year ago.

When California voters in 2008 narrowly approved $10 billion in bond as seed money for the high-speed rail development, they were told the total cost would be about $43 billion.

Fresh estimates put it now at $67 billion.

Brian Kelly, head of the State Transportation Agency, was appointed this week to run the High-Speed Rail Authority. He told The New York Times that even though the project has “mammoth opposition,” he has “never seen a single project that would have such a transformative impact as this one.”

Other supporters reason that the project should continue because billions of dollars have already been spent.

Critics, however, say the state should cut its losses and call it a day.

“The money is already wasted. There’s no way to unwaste it,” James Moore, director of the transportation engineering program at the University of Southern California, told Fox News.

He added that Californians have only “scratched the surface” when it comes to expenses, and said that estimates were “overtly deceptive.”

He described ridership forecasts as “fictional” and said the idea behind the state bullet train lacks logic.

“If you build a mode that is slower than an aircraft and costlier than gas, people aren’t going to ride it,” he said.

Kersey agrees.

“It’s far from certain that Californians would even utilize the proposed high-speed rail given the ease of air travel among California’s major cities,” he said. “It’s so easy to get in an airplane and fly anywhere you want to, (to) any of the big cities around the state.”

He also said that by the time the train is up and running – sometime around 2025 - it will be outdated.

“The ‘high-speed’ rail debacle is the technology of yesteryear and has no feasible plan for success,” he said, adding that Californians shouldn’t be forced to foot the bill for “pet projects for politicians.”

The four leading Democratic candidates for governor in California have offered various levels of support for the rail project.

The Los Angeles Times says current Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom -- the frontrunner in the gubernatorial race -- has dodged repeated requests for interviews on the bullet train for more than two years.

Newsom’s office also did not return multiple calls from Fox News seeking comment.

“This reticence to speak about a deeply troubled project might seem like smart political strategy, given its support by the governor and construction trade unions, a valued Democratic constituency,” The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote in a scathing editorial. “If the Democratic candidates don’t detail how they would salvage the most expensive public project in California history, there’s a better adjective: cowardly.”

Last February, California’s House asked the administration to block a pending federal grant until an audit of the project’s finances is completed.

The letter was signed by all 14 members of the state’s Republican delegation and was sent to Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao.

As of now, there's been no movement on the request.

I took a bullet train from Nagoya, Japan to Kyoto for the first time a couple months ago. Man was that a sweet ride. I don't know how fast it was going-probably over 120 mph, but it was the smoothest ride of any other train I had been on. And no weather delays!
I always thought that if done correctly, the US could have some better alternatives for city to city (or state to state)travel to compete with the airlines.
oh well

Note to Sacramento: Regardless of the status of any pending federal grant, the odds of the Feds bailing this project out are...zero. Just ask New York City.

quote:

“The ‘high-speed’ rail debacle is the technology of yesteryear and has no feasible plan for success,” he said, adding that Californians shouldn’t be forced to foot the bill for “pet projects for politicians.”

Wrong. Californians should be on the hook for every penny their politicians waste. They were duly elected to represent you voters. Don’t like it, change them. In the meantime, California voters are responsible, as it should be.

Also, keep in mind that the bond was a ballet initiative, not a normal allocation through the legislature.

I’ll also ask the California voter. How’s the return on that 3 billion stem cell research bond doing? Six billion (after interest) is an expensive way to poke a stick in GW Bush’s eye. Was it worth it?

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
Note to Sacramento: Regardless of the status of any pending federal grant, the odds of the Feds bailing this project out are...zero. Just ask New York City.

As it should be,gov would have to barrow money to bail this thing out.
Crap like this is why we have 20 trillion on our backs

Which kinda makes you wonder if its such a good deal. I mean, if it was a good loan to California from the Feds, then why can't California get the loan on the open market?

quote:

Originally posted by jdmb03:
Current estimate $67 billion. WTF!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/mone...r-AAuUBOc?li=BBnb7Kz

It’s billions of dollars over budget and seven years behind schedule, and appears to have no plausible way of living up to its goal....

California’s biggest boondoggle....“The worst-case scenario has happened....billions being wasted on this boondoggle could have been invested in our current infrastructure needs, such as water storage, flood control, highways and bridges....

When California voters in 2008 narrowly approved $10 billion in bond as seed money for the high-speed rail development, they were told the total cost would be about $43 billion. Fresh estimates put it now at $67 billion.......

Californians have only “scratched the surface” when it comes to expenses, and said that estimates were “overtly deceptive....“If you build a mode that is slower than an aircraft and costlier than gas, people aren’t going to ride it,”...

He also said that by the time the train is up and running – sometime around 2025 - it will be outdated.
“The ‘high-speed’ rail debacle is the technology of yesteryear and has no feasible plan for success,” he said, adding that Californians shouldn’t be forced to foot the bill for “pet projects for politicians.”...

...“If the Democratic candidates don’t detail how they would salvage the most expensive public project in California history, there’s a better adjective: cowardly.”....

A few thoughts.

From various local commentary, the gist I get is that the "fresh estimate" of $67 Billion noted above is quite optimistic. I have heard numbers in the $90B range.

And it seems saving the environment by reducing greenhouse gases from cars and jets was one of the major selling points, yet some of the increased time/$ is due to environmental lawsuits (high speed rail is not going to help the environment).

Another item, when first sold to the voting public, the promise was that once completed, it would be self supporting, would not need operating subsidies. However, said forecast assumed that the annual ridership would be the same number of passengers as total annual Amtrak passengers in the US and Canada combined (ie, it will require significant annual subsidies once in operation).

But on the upside, I am reasonably confident that various CA politicians and bureaucrats, and their cronies, are doing quite nicely on the pending disaster.

Re: "When California voters in 2008 narrowly approved $10 billion in bond as seed money for the high-speed rail development, they were told the total cost would be about $43 billion.

Fresh estimates put it now at $67 billion."

You can safely bet that $67 billion is way low. The original estimate was a deliberate deceit.

I believe in 2000 Floridians passed a constitutional amendment requiring high speed rail to be developed. A number of years later, some of us wised up and repealed it. This didn't kill the idea and more money was spent/wasted to keep the project going. The final nail in the coffin happened in 2011 when Rick Scott refused federal money that would have covered maybe half of the projected cost.

High speed rail might be a great way to connect major metropolitan areas, but I don't believe there are that many people traveling between Tampa and Orlando, the first and most likely to be cost effective part of the project, to justify it. Rather, I think most of the traffic on the I-4 corridor is commuter traffic from the 'burbs which wouldn't be alleviated by high speed rail.

Good luck to folks in California.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
I believe in 2000 Floridians passed a constitutional amendment requiring high speed rail to be developed. A number of years later, some of us wised up and repealed it. This didn't kill the idea and more money was spent/wasted to keep the project going. The final nail in the coffin happened in 2011 when Rick Scott refused federal money that would have covered maybe half of the projected cost.

High speed rail might be a great way to connect major metropolitan areas, but I don't believe there are that many people traveling between Tampa and Orlando, the first and most likely to be cost effective part of the project, to justify it. Rather, I think most of the traffic on the I-4 corridor is commuter traffic from the 'burbs which wouldn't be alleviated by high speed rail.

Good luck to folks in California.

Please don't contradict the liberal kool-aid with fact and reality.

I believe there is to be another from Miami to Orlando. A day before transporting began, someone was killed because the warning/barriers didn't operate as they should. I don't know who is going to travel from Miami to Orlando on a daily basis to make it worthwhile. Another feel good costly mistake.

They're trying to do a bullet train project in Texas too between Houston and Dallas. This is one of the zillion reasons why it shouldn't happen.

quote:

Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
Re: "When California voters in 2008 narrowly approved $10 billion in bond as seed money for the high-speed rail development, they were told the total cost would be about $43 billion.

Fresh estimates put it now at $67 billion."

You can safely bet that $67 billion is way low. The original estimate was a deliberate deceit.

No shit, Sherlock. Not directed at you, Pipe Smoker, but at the stupid voters who voted for this.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
They're trying to do a bullet train project in Texas too between Houston and Dallas. This is one of the zillion reasons why it shouldn't happen.

Not to quibble, but I think if TX tried something like this they could pull it off. First, they would have a realistic viable plan (or kill it before it got started). Second, they would manage it properly. But CA???

quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:...No shit, Sherlock. Not directed at you, Pipe Smoker, but at the stupid voters who voted for this.

I know a number of people who fit your description. Problem is, they will never acknowledge their insanity.

quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
They're trying to do a bullet train project in Texas too between Houston and Dallas. This is one of the zillion reasons why it shouldn't happen.

Not to quibble, but I think if TX tried something like this they could pull it off. First, they would have a realistic viable plan (or kill it before it got started). Second, they would manage it properly. But CA???

It wouldn't be as fucked up as a CA project, but it would be the normal .gov FUBAR. Zero chance in hell the current Texas plan will work as they're selling shit as fertilizer. Unrealistic seat occupancy rate, unrealistic cost estimate, unrealistic schedule, some hinkey things going on with the route, etc. It would be as full of graft and corruption as 1980s college football in Texas.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:...It wouldn't be as fucked up as a CA project, but it would be the normal .gov FUBAR....

Sidenote. I am teaching an advanced cost acct class this quarter, there are two students, former military, who sit in front. I used the above term to describe some current issue in the business news, those students were the only ones who laughed.

Let call it what it was. A blatant sop to the various unions who would build it. Let’s also not investigate too deeply the politicians who conveniently owned land in areas that would be eminent domained for track. This was widely called a boondoggle before vote even took place and Moonbeam just crammed it down our throats. The train from nowhere to nowhere that nobody will use. FML. One more reason to blow out of this place sooner rather than later.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
I believe in 2000 Floridians passed a constitutional amendment requiring high speed rail to be developed. A number of years later, some of us wised up and repealed it. This didn't kill the idea and more money was spent/wasted to keep the project going. The final nail in the coffin happened in 2011 when Rick Scott refused federal money that would have covered maybe half of the projected cost.

High speed rail might be a great way to connect major metropolitan areas, but I don't believe there are that many people traveling between Tampa and Orlando, the first and most likely to be cost effective part of the project, to justify it. Rather, I think most of the traffic on the I-4 corridor is commuter traffic from the 'burbs which wouldn't be alleviated by high speed rail.

Good luck to folks in California.

But fear not. We didn't get high speed rail in Central Florida (although it never would have been anything like high speed), but we did get that awesome people mover Sun Rail. I get to sit at a couple crossings every day and watch that POS run north/south carrying a minuscule number of people. Anyone who'd lived in Florida for a significant amount of time knew it was a joke and spoke out in opposition to it, yet the politicians just had to have it (and had to have us pay for it). It doesn't get anywhere close to the ridership levels they projected (because the projections and estimates were a complete fabrication) and loses more and more money each year. But again, fear not, the same politicos who build the first leg are now pushing construction of the second leg...an even more worthless commuting corridor. But that second leg has to be built because....you guessed it....we've already spent tens of millions on the first leg. These morons really are that stupid! Man I wanna retire to Montana and make these urban nitwits a bad memory.

SunRail. 3,000 riders a day, weekdays only for the most part. $7,000,000 a year in revenue at an annual cost of $34,000,000. Of course it must be expanded, they plan to make it up in volume!

It's that new math.