Where averages meet opportunity and greed?

End of my street there was a one time summer cottage, probably built at the edge of the potato farm right after WW2. Someone's weekend getaway. I don't know sq footage, but about the size of a 1 1/2 car garage. One floor, tiny living room, 1 tiny bedroom, a tiny added on kitchenette and a tiny unfinished basement for storage. On less than 1/4 acre. Real-estate company bought it and it was recently listed for $450K. "Shockingly" (sarcasm) it didn't sell. So they knocked it down are trying to sell it to a builder, who'll soon build some monstrosity I assume in its place. There went one of your affordable starter houses, taken out of the "pool" as it were.

The house next to it sold. Sold in one day "on the market". Neighbors were quite happy with the offer and jumped on it.
Again, no person bought it, the real-estate bought it. They did the bathroom over, gave it a coat of paint inside and tacked $150k onto the price. Going on 7 months and it still hasn't sold.

Supply and demand made prices high or something else? (and not just inflation).

quote:

Originally posted by reloader-1:
That’s exactly the mentality that doesn’t allow for any rational discussion on if there is a problem or not.

Are there entitled snowflakes? Hundreds of thousands of them! I have zero doubt.

I’m not talking about those. Is there a real problem today with housing costs? What are the possible solutions?

“Grow a pair” is wonderful advice and highly relevant to all situations; but is there an actual issue?

If gas is $30 a gallon due to some idiotic government caused issue, is your answer “grow a pair, I drove everywhere and saved money?”.

Remember Reloader, the basic premise for these people is, "Fuck you I got mine!" I can tell you today, with no uncertainty there is only one group of people, one generation who those who came before and after both hate. The boomers will go down as the single worst people in the history of western civilization they killed Europe, and are doing their best to kill the United States. No generation before in human history did more to make life worse for their children then the "Me generation." That's how the Gen Z historians already view them, and no one trusts millennials and gen x doesn't care enough to have an opinion after a lifetime of abuse. So that will be how it gets recorded, and rightly so.

^^^ Well, that's a whole lot of generalizations.
As a whole, some truth to it but I do know booomers who actually care about other people...

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
^^^ Well, that's a whole lot of generalizations.

Yes, that is how statistics work. Are there outliers? of course, but while this thread is squabbling about mean vs median not one single person saying "It's these damn kids fault" have addressed my only other post in this thread. more over there seems to be a view of "my individual experience was this way, and that means more than aggregate data."

But the facts remain the facts, First time homebuyers are the oldest they've ever been, and we as western civilization are suffering extreme population collapse. so it's not some subset but the vast majority under 40 are failing to thrive where as boomers are wealthier than they've ever been, and not because they're smarter or better equipped, they were simply first to arrive and have done everything that can to pull the ladder up behind them.

Young People:

- Younger people don't have land lines, they have a smart phone they get for "free" with payments embedded in their monthly service charges.
- They don't buy albums, CD's, DVD's, etc. they stream everything.
- They don't have Cable or Satellite TV, only internet service.
- They drink fancy coffee, but alcohol consumption and smoking are way down compared to decades ago so it's a wash.
- They have to save for retirement in 401K's and IRA's because they don't get a pension. Decades ago people got a real pensions so savings were more for things like down payments and large cash purchases, not money to live on during retirement, and retirement can be 20-30 years with today's lifespans.
- College tuition has way outpaced inflation and many jobs require a degree (even if it's not really necessary), and much of it is financed with loans.
- Every generation expects to live better than their parents. This has largely held true until now.
- Young women are obsessed with image on social media and drive the need for luxury - granite countertops, fancy kitchens and bathrooms, bigger homes, vacations, etc. Young men are probably fine with being more frugal, but if you want a girlfriend/wife she's going to demand stuff like this.

Pricing:

COVID spiked real estate prices. My property tax assessment and paid taxes have basically doubled since 2019. This was caused by lack of inventory - not many sellers because with work-at-home there was less need to relocate - increased costs and shortages of building materials, labor shortages, people from high cost areas moving to low cost areas and dumping all their house money into a new place to avoid capital gains taxes. In some areas land-use restrictions are a significant factor.

The charts show a price trajectory like 2008, and a looming correction. Don't fall for the "it will never come down, this is the new normal" argument, it's not. I pray that Wall Street is not up to similar shenanigans as 2008 and the fall will not be as fast and hard. They aren't doing the SAME things, but they are probably doing DIFFERENT things.

Private equity is a factor, but not as significant as people claim. Rental units can be restricted with zoning and HOA rules, and most of us agree that owners are better than tenants. Problem with private equity is they are buying houses with borrowed money that requires a return to pay the interest. If house values fall they will starting dumping properties, driving prices even lower.

Land use restrictions:

Boomers seem to want to live in the world they grew up with. Post war there was rapid growth and change, but once the Boomers got in control (and are still in control), more and more land use restrictions were put in place. They name things "historic" so they cannot be changed. They create regulations that make new construction in costal markets very very difficult. To limit "sprawl" they put limits on growth of the size of cities/towns, which were big enough for a while but now things are hitting the hard limits. Of course this is also self-serving because it increased the value of their own real estate holdings.

Demand:

Immigration is certainly increasing demand for homes. Legal and illegal both. The rapid influx of illegals claiming asylum and staying on parole under Biden, and given work permits and SSN's is certainly a factor.

quote:

boomers are wealthier than they've ever been, and not because they're smarter or better equipped, they were simply first to arrive and have done everything that can to pull the ladder up behind them.

Yeah... but they can't take it with them.
That generation is starting to give up the power they've had over others for a long time.

HOUSING DIVERSITY:

This hits close to home. I've lived in Avon, Indiana, due west of Indianapolis since 2001. It's a rapidly growing suburb in a very Republican county (most elections are decided by the Republican primary) with good schools, and lots of single family housing developments. It's still semi-rural with farms still amid the developments, and west of Avon is country (until you get to Danville ~10 miles away). Actually I live just outside the town in the county so I can't vote for town offices, but I'm in the school district and my address is in Avon. My son attend all of his K-12 education here and graduated from high school in 2022. Everything was more or less fine until the COVID and the Biden years.

Now we have a bunch of new apartments, high density developments, and mixed use developments. Only one apartment complex is visible from the main roads. The others are somewhat hidden behind big box stores and strip malls. It hit me hard in 2024 as I was shopping for a new car and some homewares and I realized the demographic changes. The car dealers and BMV were filled with minorities and immigrants, the stores were staffed by a lot of minorities.

How did I not see this happening? COVID work at home 2020-2021, lots of business travel in 2022 to mid-2024, and my son getting his license in 2020 and doing most of the food shopping and take-out pickup until he went to college.

So I started looking into this and found the planning document from around 2018 that lamented the town was "homogeneous" being 85% white. And we lacked "housing diversity" with mostly single family homes which are an "inefficient" use of public services because they are spread out over more land. It said we needed more "housing choice", with apartments, mixed-use developments, and high-density developments. I don't know how a Republican council fell for this leftist shit. Maybe the developers sold them a bill of goods, maybe there were payoffs, I don't know. They seemed to be chasing retention of young professionals that would normally move into the city or north side. Other towns to the north and south have built "city living" spaces in their old downtowns with businesses on the first floor and apartments on 2nd/3rd floors. I don't see many businesses moving in as the downtowns already had as many businesses as they could sustain.

What has been the result? A rapid influx of Nigerian immigrants (not sure if they are CBP1 asylum opportunists or chain migration), and also Sikh's, and a bunch of "city dwellers". We now have 16% ESL kids in the schools and 49% reduced/free lunch. Mind you this is in a town where most new single family developments are posting prices on billboards of $400K's and $500K's. Some of the immigrants pool money to buy a house and have a bunch of people living there to afford it.

I found out about one low income apartment complex behind the Wal-Mart that is filled with "city dwellers" now. The one obviously visible apartment complex I was previously aware of I am told has a lot of the Nigerians and also has at least some units with income caps. I can't find much info on the low income units though.

I have searched low income and section 8 and can't find much info. I suspect that various new developments have a % of low income units set aside? Maybe there is some federal funding or tax incentive to do this? I really don't know. But clearly we are getting a lot of minorities that cannot afford the single family housing developments. If someone can help explain how this all works I'd really appreciate it.

It seems there is more crime - the brawl at the Texas Roadhouse I posted a few months ago was similar to Spirit Airlines or Carnival Cruise brawls. My retired Vietnam veteran neighbor got body checked and threatened by two hood rats at the Wal-Mart. He had left his gun in the car but managed to stare them down. And also sketchy driving and some accidents by what appear to be drivers without a lot of experience.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

boomers are wealthier than they've ever been, and not because they're smarter or better equipped, they were simply first to arrive and have done everything that can to pull the ladder up behind them.

Yeah... but they can't take it with them.
That generation is starting to give up the power they've had over others for a long time.

Are they? Look at the age of people in Congress and the Presidency. As Boomers retire and get Social Security and Medicare, they will fight to keep every cent and stick it to the much poorer young people paying the ~15% payroll taxes (half by employee, half by employer) to support these programs. Literally those with the lowest net work pay to support those with the highest net worth.

I am GenX with pre-boomer parents, and we are largely ignored in most discussions. We were the last analog generation that grew up without helicopter parents, roaming free and unsupervised as kids, but never having anything really bad happen. Boomers and Millennials and Gen Z are all the talk is about.

quote:

I am GenX with pre-boomer parents, and we are largely ignored in most discussions. We were the last analog generation that grew up without helicopter parents, roaming free and unsupervised as kids, but never having anything really bad happen. Boomers and Millennials and Gen Z are all the talk is about.

Same here.

The boomers won't be in control much longer, and...

Gen Z would rather cut Social Security benefits for retirees than raise their own taxes to keep the program afloat.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ge...tax-hikes-85264.html

Absolutely unrelated, but as someone who leans younger…

Social security will be a defined pot: “x” amount of money to distribute among all recipients. That means there will be cuts, and I’m ok with that.

There is no free lunch, no free money. Whether you paid into or not is irrelevant; we are broke.

I’m not convinced that there will be cuts, but the retirement ages will be going up. There is no choice. Millions in their 20s, 30s, and 40, not working and thus not putting into the pot are going to require it. That, and the increasing life expectancy.

My solution is both the above, and SEVERELY cutting back on welfare handouts (EBT, SNAP, etc…) and rolling that money into SS/Medicare. There is no good reason to be supporting people able to work who choose not to work. None whatsoever.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

Gen Z would rather cut Social Security benefits for retirees than raise their own taxes to keep the program afloat.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ge...tax-hikes-85264.html

This shouldn’t be seen as a surprise to anyone. Some might say that turnabout is fair play. One could say that the boomer generation pushed back the retirement age of social security for future generations rather than potentially reduce their benefits. As a gen X’er I don’t really have a dog in the fight, but I’m not at all surprised that people are looking out for themselves first over another generation.

quote:

Absolutely unrelated, but as someone who leans younger…

Yes, sorry. I didn't mean to take us off topic.
The Social Security reference was more about the Boomer generation aging out and giving up control/influence.

quote:

more and more land use restrictions

Sure. I love the million-dollar duplex's that they slap on a 50 x 100 lot with five feet between the buildings.

quote:

boomer generation pushed back the retirement age of social security for future generations rather than potentially reduce their benefits.

So? Why should they have the benefits they paid for cut? Because the govt. used the fund as a piggy bank?

The reason that there was a shortfall is due to the reduction of preeminent full-time staff that started 15 years ago.

As far as the change in age...that was done 43 years ago. 24 months were added to get the max benefit. It was the same year that they cut benefits to anyone who had a govt pension.

quote:

Originally posted by rscalzo:

quote:

more and more land use restrictions

Sure. I love the million-dollar duplex's that they slap on a 50 x 100 lot with five feet between the buildings.

I'm not talking about zoning or setback requirements. I'm fully in favor of keeping towns nice by limiting rental properties and apartments, and ensuring reasonable space between homes. I'm talking about not allowing new construction in certain areas to prevent "sprawl" and maintain "natural spaces", which limits the supply of houses and drives up costs of existing ones. I'm against cities like San Francisco essentially not allowing any new units to be built through myraid regulations, when most of the city is low rise buildings that could easily be replaced with taller buildings.

According to the Manhattan Institute (conservative publisher of City Journal), many cities set up perimeters that you can't develop outside of, many years ago. Now we've hit those limits and cities can no longer expand. A lot of this is because leftist urbanists hate suburbs and cars and want everyone living in cities in high rises and using public transportation.

quote:

Originally posted by rscalzo:

quote:

boomer generation pushed back the retirement age of social security for future generations rather than potentially reduce their benefits.

So? Why should they have the benefits they paid for cut? Because the govt. used the fund as a piggy bank?

The reason that there was a shortfall is due to the reduction of preeminent full-time staff that started 15 years ago.

As far as the change in age...that was done 43 years ago. 24 months were added to get the max benefit. It was the same year that they cut benefits to anyone who had a govt pension.

No one "paid for" their benefits. They paid for the current beneficiaries. It's a tax, not an investment. All excess SS tax receipts go to the general treasury fund by law, and it has been this way since inception of SS. SS was a way for FDR to get even more income tax money out of the people, most of it going to the treasury because there were very few recipients early on. But he pretended it was some kind of investment, calling it a "trust fund" even though it doesn't remotely meet any of the requirements of a trust fund.

The system is insolvent. The "trust fund" has a bunch of debt that can only be used for SS debt. The only way to solvency is to pay down that debt using funds from somewhere else. Such is the folly of the government owing itself money. The only way forward is changing SS to an investment system where your money goes into a managed investment account. Of course the managed account has to run by fiduciaries and immune from political influence which will not be easy. Ages of eligibility have to go up and people have to get used to working longer as people live longer. The 65 year retirement age was set by Otto Von Bismarck in the 1870's. The intent was never for people to live in retirement for 20-30 years.

quote:

No one "paid for" their benefits. They paid for the current beneficiaries. It's a tax, not an investment. All excess SS tax receipts go to the general treasury fund by law, and it has been this way since inception of SS.

Yeah... and I would greatly prefer a 401k type account instead but it's not gonna happen in my lifetime...

Retirement Planning, Capitalism, Socialism, and the Power of Education
https://www.americanthinker.co...er_of_education.html

quote:

Originally posted by FenderBender:
Remember Reloader, the basic premise for these people is, "Fuck you I got mine!" I can tell you today, with no uncertainty there is only one group of people, one generation who those who came before and after both hate. The boomers will go down as the single worst people in the history of western civilization they killed Europe, and are doing their best to kill the United States. No generation before in human history did more to make life worse for their children then the "Me generation." That's how the Gen Z historians already view them, and no one trusts millennials and gen x doesn't care enough to have an opinion after a lifetime of abuse. So that will be how it gets recorded, and rightly so.

The classic historical analysis: “Boomers ruined everything.” Interesting, especially when supported by zero facts.

I’m a boomer. I’ve been working since sixth grade. That started with physical labor—manual sprinkler irrigation in southeast Idaho. If you’ve never done that at 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., seven days a week, from spring through fall, I highly recommend it. It's a character-builder.

From 1970 through the late ’70s, I worked in a family lumber yard, which occasionally required missing school or turning in partial homework because work still had to get done. After that, I spent the next four decades as a software engineer. Like many in the field, I enjoyed the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, both of which came with roughly 50% pay cuts just to remain employed. Apparently, that was the part where everything was “easy.”

So when I hear that my generation “killed Europe” and is now “killing the United States,” I’m genuinely curious which policies, decisions, or actions you’re referring to. Not vibes. Not generational astrology. Actual causes.

I’m old enough that I don’t need approval from internet historians, but my wife, children, and grandchildren seem reasonably satisfied with the outcomes so far.

If you’d like to talk about how to make things better for younger generations, I’m open to that. If the plan is simply to assign blame by birth year, then I assume the solution is what?

It's not about exceptions, it's about averages.

Boomer and boomer-adjacent-silent-generation politicians have run up massive national debt. It amounts to massive vote buying, and handouts to the politically favored in exchange for "campaign contributions". This is undeniable fact. And they will get all their SS and Medicare and bankrupt the system and GenX and later will get the short end.

The greatest generation was frugal. So frugal they repainted and cleaned up the car Kennedy got shot in and CONTINUED TO US IT FOR LBJ. It was a perfectly good car. Can you imagine that today?

Boomers have selfishly defined every era they lived.

When they were young it was all about them fighting against the Vietnam war and for civil rights (except they were too young to do much with civil rights - early boomers from 1946 were only 18 when civil rights passed in 1964). There parents were wrong and they were going to change the world.

In the 70's they got stoned and slept around and that was ok then. In the 80's they became yuppies. Now they are retiring and it's the younger people that are the problem. It is boomer's parenting that created Millennials, right?

All the great popular music is Boomer music.

I could go on, but as a GenX "baby buster" I've had to hear boomers my entire life talking about how great they are and ignoring or trivializing every other generation.