Is anyone interested in discussing the economic subjects in the thread title? I plastered a few articles below which can be used to kick off the discussion. Use these articles or feel free to add your own articles that are related to the subject into the thread.
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The Trade War Fallout Keeps Getting Worse for Semiconductor Stocks

Barrons 5/20/2019 > https://www.barrons.com/articl...384965?mod=hp_LEAD_1

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China Trade War: Trump, Fed Complacency Is Bad News For Dow Jones

Investors Business Daily 5/20/2019 > https://www.investors.com/news...mplacency-dow-jones/

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The Trade War Could Drag On and On. Here’s Why — and What to Watch Next.

Barrons 5/20/2019 > https://www.barrons.com/articl...8313000?mod=hp_DAY_1

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The Trade War Will Make Stocks Scary. 5 Reasons Not to Panic.

Barrons 5/20/2019> https://www.barrons.com/articl...120641?mod=hp_DAY_11

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Dow Jones Escapes 'Game Of Thrones'-Like Torching Of Tech Stocks; 4 Stock Market Leaders Up

Investors Business Daily 5/20/2019 > https://www.investors.com/mark...k-market-leaders-up/


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IBD/TIPP Poll: Economic Optimism Index

Investors Business Daily 5/7/2019 > https://www.investors.com/news...omic-optimism-index/


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The Trade War Will Make Stocks Scary. 5 Reasons Not to Panic.

Barrons 5/20/2019> https://www.barrons.com/articl...120641?mod=hp_DAY_11

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Dow Jones Escapes 'Game Of Thrones'-Like Torching Of Tech Stocks; 4 Stock Market Leaders Up

Investors Business Daily 5/20/2019 > https://www.investors.com/mark...k-market-leaders-up/


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IBD/TIPP Poll: Economic Optimism Index

Investors Business Daily 5/7/2019 > https://www.investors.com/news...omic-optimism-index/


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Trump Job Approval, Direction Of Country: IBD/TIPP Poll

Investors Business Daily 5/7/2019 > https://www.investors.com/poli...irection-of-country/


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note that the two polls at the end of the list of articles above are published monthly -

new polls will be out ~ first week of next month

Trump's Strategy in the China Trade War

quote:

The best tariff (tax on imported goods) equals zero — at least this is what standard economic theory says. However, such a rule is valid only when both trading partners are set at zero. If either side moves one iota above zero in tariffs, it makes its population pay for that move. So what happens when one party does not respond to an unfriendly move from zero to some non-zero tariff? In a short time frame, it hurts the side that makes such a move, but in the long run, it could eventually bankrupt businesses on the other side and, in turn, bring enormous benefits for those who made such a move first. The more time other side keeps indifferent, the more it loses in the end.

These United States have been indifferent for too long, now we need to stand up for ourselves. President Trump has a plan, it cannot be completed in 2 years, he MUST win in 2020 and then we must find someone to continue his work in 2024 and beyond, this economic mess we're in will take decades to repair.

quote:

Now it is America's turn. Trump pushed for substantial tax decreases for domestic manufacturers and substantial, painful tax increases for the foreign ones. The proverbial "big sucking sound" everybody hears is the sound of businesses relocating back to the U.S., bringing with them jobs, prosperity, and a headache for Democrats. Such massive relocation of businesses and accompanying wealth transfer would not be possible without Trump's double punch — first on the domestic and then the international front.

I don’t understand what this thread is meant to be.

In response to just reading the titles of the Barron's articles. I'll try to read a couple of them tomorrow.

Many, maybe most articles about the tariffs and China trade will be negative and display short-term thinking. They're written to engineer President Trump's defeat in 2020 by exploiting American ignorance of economics and foreign affairs.

quote:

Originally posted by Veeper:
I don’t understand what this thread is meant to be.

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The idea is to have a discussion thread on economics - specifically, as noted in the title:
Economy of the Trump Administration / Trade / Tariffs / Trade War.

Essentially, anything related to the current "hot issues" - The economy as it is affected by Trump policy. It is not necessary to read all the example articles I placed in my first post.
Those were just some examples of what is out there in the media currently relating to the thread subject. You could use one of those, one other of your choice, or just give your opinions without any supporting article.

I hope this clarifies. I searched for other threads on this subject and found none. This may or may not be of interest to SF members.

Consider it a trial balloon.

Serpentza is a South African that has lived and youtubed from China for 10 years.

Voter Approval Rising for Trump’s Handling of the Economy
Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds signs that the economy could help Trump win support beyond his base voters

WSJ > https://www.wsj.com/articles/v...-economy-11557061201

Springnr's video above is excellent. It explains why the trade issues with China are so important to the American economy.

Is the American Economy important? You bet your bippie! It is the #1 reason Donald J. Trump will be re-elected.

I don't quote James Carville [strategist for the Bill Clinton campaign] often, but "It IS the economy, Stupid."

This message has been edited. Last edited by: HighZonie,

From Roberth:

quote:

Many, maybe most articles about the tariffs and China trade will be negative and display short-term thinking. They're written to engineer President Trump's defeat in 2020 by exploiting American ignorance of economics and foreign affairs.

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^^^^ the reason we should not be ignorant of the economy.

Most of the articles I posted will not be negative to Trump ( IBD is politically right typically).

Barron's [A WSJ production], is often politically left, but not always.

WSJ is usually politically left.

Here is another article:

China v America
A new kind of cold war

The Economist > https://www.economist.com/lead...new-kind-of-cold-war


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Note that many of the articles I have shown as examples may require a subscription to read the entire article.

I'm not here to sell subscriptions. Just use the title and first paragraph or so that you can read for free to inspire your comments.

Canada, Mexico lift tariffs on US goods after Trump scraps steel, aluminum levies

BY SYLVAN LANE - 05/20/19

THE HILL > https://thehill.com/policy/fin...craps-steel-aluminum


The article has a video of President Trump talking about relaxation of Tariffs on Mexican goods. It is followed by another video about the treaty negotiation back peddling by China.

I don't know how to embed them here.

Hello- I think this could be an interesting thread. I talk about the tariffs with my friend from university. We both have degrees in economics, though he went on to get his PhD in it, and I stopped with the BA.

We get it drilled into our heads that tariffs are bad. They truly are. The founding fathers of our country recognized this as well, and set up free trade between the states.

That said, trade has to be free, without any artificial conditions on it to skew it in the favor of one side or another. I do not think China, or the EU for that matter, have been fair with their trade policies. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

quote:

We get it drilled into our heads that tariffs are bad. They truly are. The founding fathers of our country recognized this as well, and set up free trade between the states.

Yes, well... the founding fathers of our country DID set up free trade between the states, as the States were now part of the same country.
BUT they financed the (small) federal government with protective tariffs on imported goods. There was no income tax.
Tariffs were the main source of all Federal revenue from 1790 to 1914.

Tariffs *are* bad when you are trying to maximize marginal benefit to the individual consumer.

However, they have to be judged in the context of the entire environment, not just Peggy in Ann Arbor who pays $100 more for a TV.

In the case of China, they are a military, political and economic threat to the US, and have manipulated trade for many years, leveraging a lower cost labor pool to amass power and wealth.

That is a direct military cost to the US, a direct economic cost (in the form of IP, industrial espionage, etc), and most likely will lead to a severe war in the future.

I think it’s worth spending the $2000 more a year or so to avoid that.

^^^^^^
I agree with DJ_Boston, Chellim1 and reloader-1 above.

Generally tariffs are not so good for the economy these days. They should be avoided if possible. Tariffs were used as a basic revenue source at the early days of our country, but they are not the best practice now.

However, this is war.

China has been illegally eating our lunch for a long time -decades. Our losses are practically incalculable.

Past administrations did nothing. We must take some hits to our economy to fix this now.

The negative impact to us temporarily will be overwhelmingly exceeded by the long term gains we will reap for generation to come if we can negotiate this trade inequality away.

The time is right, while we have an administration willing to take care of this. Supply and demand will direct us to replace some suppliers with others. We will modify our behavior to lessen the impact - we are Americans- we can do this.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: HighZonie,

Congress, White House near deal on spending, debt limit
BY ALEXANDER BOLTON AND NIV ELIS - 05/21/19 07:26 PM EDT

THE HILL> > https://thehill.com/policy/fin...-spending-debt-limit

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Same old deal: the guns vs. butter debate...
excerpt from the article:

"“A negotiated agreement with the House Democrats is the best of three alternatives, the other two being arguing back and forth over the length of a [continuing resolution] for God only knows how long, or a sequester that hits defense with about a $71 billion cut at the end of the year,” he added.

Shelby said he delivered a similar message to Trump during a meeting Monday afternoon.

Acting White House budget director Russ Vought had signaled to congressional negotiators in April that the president would be willing to accept a yearlong stopgap measure in the absence of a spending deal. More recently, White House officials mulled a one-year deal instead of a two-year agreement.

“I’ve been to a lot of these meetings over the years — and I don’t want to be too forward-leaning in predicting an agreement, but it seems to me without exception everyone would like to [make one],” McConnell said Tuesday.

“The agreement would be a two-year caps deal, which would allow us to go forward” with the appropriations process, he added.


McConnell’s optimism even surprised his Republican colleagues when he briefed them on the status of the talks during a closed-door lunch meeting.

“His normal way of operating is not to be overly optimistic, and he struck an optimistic tone,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a member of the Appropriations Committee.

Congress’s top four leaders — Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), McConnell, Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — met with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and Vought in Pelosi’s office Tuesday.

After meeting for more than two hours in the morning, they reconvened at 4:15 p.m.

McConnell had told reporters at lunchtime that negotiators hoped to clinch a deal by the end of the day, but the afternoon meeting broke up without a final agreement.

One potential sticking point is a disagreement over how much to increase funding levels for defense programs compared to nondefense domestic programs.

“There are still some significant issues outstanding, particularly the domestic-side spending issues — things like health care, infrastructure and things that average middle-class folks need,” Schumer said Tuesday afternoon."
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I'm all for avoiding another Government Shutdown with all the time wasted on grandstanding and bla, bla, bla. But I am uneasy about jacking up the debt ceiling again.
Yet, it seems the only way to get the defense spending needed to rebuild Obama's 8 years degrading of the military.

Hopefully the revenue from tariffs will help offset the spending increases.

Trump will be criticized for agreeing to the debt ceiling hikes, but he would be criticized more for another shutdown.

Criticism or not, he will not allow defense spending to be under the requirements for national safety. We are in troubled times and cannot afford to fall back on defense now.

but.....

We really really really have to stop jacking up the debt - - - that just never seems to happen.

Politicians always agree to let the other side over spend to get what their side wants. It is ultimately a death spiral into socialism if it is not checked. Taxes must be raised over and over -- soon we are all working for the government.

U.S. jobless claims dip to 211,000, hover near half-century low

Published: May 23, 2019 8:30 a.m. ET

MARKETWATCH >> U.S. jobless claims dip to 211,000, hover near half-century low

Published: May 23, 2019 8:30 a.m. ET

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FROM THE ARTICLE:
"Big picture: By most measures the U.S. labor market is the strongest in decades. Indeed, the Federal Reserve used the word “strong” a dozen times to describe the labor market in the minutes of its last meeting in early May.


Wages are rising, job openings are at a record high and layoffs and unemployment are at a 50-year low. The sizzling labor market is keeping the U.S. economy on stable growth path despite increasing headwinds such as a trade tensions with China"

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THINGS ARE LOOKING GOOD - /sarcasm on/ Of course we owe it all to Obama /sarcasm off/
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Steve Bannon on the US-China trade war (full interview)

Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist, joins CNBC "Squawk Box" to discuss the status of the China trade talks. Also at the table is guest host Tom Friedman, New York Times foreign affairs columnist.

You Tube > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYraLI04WiU

Good Discussion

China’s Huawei created US economic crisis: Consumer Technology Association CEO
By Henry FernandezPublished May 22, 2019HuaweiFOXBusiness

Fox Business > https://www.foxbusiness.com/te...logy-association-ceo
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Stocks of American companies which are Huawei vendors and customers are affected by trade restrictions with the Chinese company.

Huawei is suspected of surveillance of American infrastructure.
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Trump puts Huawei on the table as part of US-China trade deal
By Henry FernandezPublished May 23, 2019Huawei

FOXBusiness >
https://www.foxbusiness.com/te...-us-china-trade-deal
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The Trump administration Opens a New Window. The Trump administration initially held off from labeling the Chinese technology giant as a security issue instead saying it was more of a trade concern but now it seems that position appears to be reversed.


“Huawei is something that’s very dangerous,” Trump said. “You look at what they done from a security standpoint, from a military standpoint, it’s very dangerous.”

When asked how he would incorporate Huawei into a trade deal, Trump said, “It’s too early to say.”