https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/sitreprt.pdf

Keep in mind that the situation report as released by NIFC (national interagency fire center) is yesterday's news: it's current as of last night...mostly.

I've been on some very large fires that weren't reported that way on the sit report. Due to time zones and the peculiarities of briefing times and mobilization, some of the briefings in the fire world are yesterdays in formation.

California in Region 5 (USFS) gives some great televised briefings daily with good visuals and detail on the weather. The only problem is that for the morning briefing, it's a briefing forecast on yesterdays weather. That's right...each day, if in Region 5, we get a rundown of the forecast of what happened yesterday...because the daily briefing on base takes place before the daily forecast has been prepared. So, the only one available is...yesterdays. But everyone does get to see how good a job the forecasters did, for whatever that's worth.

The resource analysis that gives a breakdown on where all the resources are, relative to the base where the briefing is held, is nearly always off...because the resources are mobile, and changes may have occurred or didn't get reported in time to make the deadline the night before, when the tally was written up. The news has sometimes run with that and broadcast a lack of resource availability...when in fact every available resource in the country was right there, working. Yarnell springs to mind...

On the aircraft resources, while helicopters assigned to a fire are usually assigned to that specific fire and not another, that isn't always the case, and some assets are national, and won't be reported, and some assets on the fire wont' be reported, either. Fixed wing resources aren't normaly shown on the sit report, either, though a number of heavy tankers, single engine air tankers, leadplanes, air attacks, fire patrol, air supervision modules, and infrared platforms may be working the fire or being given assignments to it. Also, given fuel cycles and reload bases and times, tasking on one fire isn't always possible, or the rotation between several aircraft makes it difficult to report or show them on the fire.

I mention this because I have been surrounded by angry locals while on a fire, who demanded to know why more resources weren't being used. In one case, a local who had formerly owned tankers had told fellow evacuees that his aircraft weren't being used...even though they were obsolete, had been removed from service, and were definitely not available, serviceable, or fit for fire operations. What makes the reports and the public eye often isn't reflective of what's actually happening at the fire, and given the dynamic environment, what was true five minutes ago may very well no longer be true.

just watched two heavy tankers unload on Mt. Lemmon

Had a Dr. appt about 11:30 this morning. On my way back home, I was going north on Craycroft and looking straight at the mountains. The wind was up and the smoke plumes were staggering coming out of the Mt. Lemon area. From my home looking north, I can't see any flames like before the fire changed direction, but can see the smoke to the east.

The most current information that you'll get is on inciweb, with periodic updates on acreage and fire changes, throughout the day.

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov

Still burning and up over 50k acres.

Amazingly no structures lost yet.

The winds have been very light the last two days and the air quality is pretty bad. A lot of ash And other particulates have invaded the bottom of my pool.

Yes, the last two days have really done a job on my breathing. From my house looking North, it looks like the mountains are draped in a thick haze. The count is up to > 900 firefighters trying to control this fire.

quote:

Originally posted by GT-40DOC:
Yes, the last two days have really done a job on my breathing. From my house looking North, it looks like the mountains are draped in a thick haze. The count is up to > 900 firefighters trying to control this fire.

I can relate. We get a fire season every year and they are predicting a bad one this year.

Here is a picture of Spokane a couple of years ago.



Jim

Always take the time to enjoy that Arizona sunset.

Presently the containment percentages are posting lower due to numerous backfires (firing operations) being ignited by firefighters, to create burned space, burning back into the main fire; these increase acerage and reduce containment numbers, but are actually increasing containment of the fire. They're perceived by the public as a fire increase, but are the opposite.

Twenty million now, and they've installed a second Type 1 Incident Management Team.

The fire broke out overnight, spotting across lines and burning downhill. Normally recocovery occurs after sundown as relative humidities rise, winds decrease, fire behavior decreases, and spread decreases. That was not the case last night.

We sure could use a nice big monsoon rain.....minus the lightening, of course.

some interesting activity on the backside of Mt. Lemmon this afternoon lots of black smoke - looks very hot as the plume is rising rapidly

Now comes a real and ongoing hazard for burn areas: the Bighorn burn scar is the subject of a flash flood warning for the next couple of hours.

Burned land doesn't hold water; it beads off. It also has a lot of loose material that goes with the water, creating a much more dangerous flow. Additionally, where fuels have been burned off, the root system to hold the soil in place isn't there, and mud flows often accompany the runoff. Flash floods move faster and more destructively than other other types of flooding, give little warning, and can be deadly.

Following a burn in Arizona a few years ago, a family playing in a stream miles away was swept away and killed by a flash flood pushing a lot of debris, miles from the burn.

Dust storm warning, too.

A BAER team (burn assessment team) has been in the area since the Bighorn fire, evaluating the burn area, hazards, and future recovery.

A bunch of people actually built a small town ,west of Phoenix,

But they built it in a dry river bed
While I was living down there,

It monsooned nine miles up in the mountains,
and
Sure enough, shortly thereafter
The seven foot wall of water washed many of the poorly constructed
buildings away,

They in turn got jambed in an I-10 bridge and took the west bound bridge out .

Low spots in Maricopa County streets
are very problematic, when the wrong drivers are using them during down pours

quote:

Originally posted by GT-40DOC:
We sure could use a nice big monsoon rain.....minus the lightening, of course.

Dewpoint temps are still not consistently high enough (55 for 3 consecutive days) to support our true monsoon season. It was late last year, as well. The lightning is the only thing I hate about our summer storms. All too often it seems to catch a house on fire or start up a wildland fire, especially early in the monsoons when many t-storms are dry (virga and lightning, or huge dust storms).

we had a major rainfall event here late yesterday afternoon - early evening. Not much in terms of localized flooding but we had very high winds and about 2 hours of continuous almost no-stop lightning

we got enough rain right over Lemmon that I think it may have put a big dent in the fire - it rained hard here for well more than an hour - the Catalina's were pretty obscured for most of it

I got all of the wind and lightening, but just enough rain to wet the bricks in the backyard.....not much!! It did cause a power surge and a bit of wind damage not far from me.


So far today, it is 110F, and likely will go a bit higher before evening time......Ahhhhh Summer in Az.

They're scary and devastating to property and wildlife. One in Apache Junction a few years ago that came over the top of the Superstitions so fast, then through pristine desert where Gold Canyon exists now, and across US60. I watched many animals with their fur scorched trying to escape, it was heartbreaking. I was the only one working the shift when the fire was at its worst.

I was on Mount Lemon just prior to the big fire there several years ago. That burned much of the structures near the top of the mountain.

The Yarnell fire took the lives of 19 local wild land firefighters.

More recently a wildfire in northern AZ in the Granite Mountains north of Prescott. That came close to many million dollar properties that thousands were evacuated on short notice with little preparation. We were spared.