Looks it’s going to cross Florida and hit states with good college football teams

In all seriousness - dust off your deep larder of hurricane supplies, implement your plan to minimize damage to your home, evacuate if necessary, and be a good neighbor to the elderly and less abled if it hits.

That sucker is going to hit right in the middle of the Southern 500, I hope we have good data service so I can stream the race if cable and electricity fail!

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
Looks it’s going to cross Florida and hit states with good college football teams

In all seriousness - dust off your deep larder of hurricane supplies, implement your plan to minimize damage to your home, evacuate if necessary, and be a good neighbor to the elderly and less abled if it hits.

No need to plan or prepare as it will be futile. According to the local retarded fish wrapper we're all likely to die by the time this storm has passed through. God I hate these people.
Hurricane Dorian could be worst storm to hit Central Florida in three decades if current track holds, meteorologist says

Looking at the track, I wonder if it cant cross the Florida peninsula, gain strength back out in the Gulf and proceed to NOLA to blow my kid to Idaho.
God, I wish he would move!

The tracks seem more ambiguous than any recent ones I recall. I’m in the panhandle & we’re trying to figure out if this will be an issue. Decision point is Friday I think.

I wish were leaving with the pan handle as our starting point.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
I wish were leaving with the pan handle as our starting point.

Good luck to you! It’s a roll of the dice every year. Panhandle wasn’t a lucky place last October. I’ll be hoping Dorian makes landfall as a weak one.

Couldn't help but wonder about that Cone stretching across the complete east coast and the media hyping the storm what the economic impact boost it gives the State. Everything is flying off the shelves, gasoline, grocery, hardware, etc.

quote:

Originally posted by arabiancowboy:
Panhandle wasn’t a lucky place last October.

You got that right. We're still in a trailer in the driveway waiting for the house to be finished. Might be getting cabinets next week.


Rick

I follow this meteorologist Paul Dorian with defense contractor Vencore who used to be with my company and he's been pretty spot-on with most of his forecasting over the past 8 or so years I've been following him.

He makes a point about some historical data about hurricanes and where they start and where they head:

quote:

A look at “historical” storms that moved into the same general location as Hurricane Dorian currently exists suggests that this system may have trouble making it all the way west to the Florida Peninsula. More often than not, a tropical system in this particular location turned northwest or north just as it approached the east coast of Florida. If Hurricane Dorian does make landfall in Florida, it will be the fourth year in a row with a landfall in the state (Hermine 2016, category 1, Irma 2017, category 4, Michael 2018, category 5). The most consecutive years in Florida with landfalling hurricanes is 7 (1944-1950).

12:15 PM | ***Hurricane Dorian continues on a track towards Florida...likely to become a “major” hurricane…residents in Georgia and the Carolinas need to stay on guard as well*** August 29, 2019

Got gas yesterday, avoided the lines at the popular stations and hit the Mobil that generally charges more, price maybe $.05 higher, 4 cans full and the truck.

Went to Costco, H20 gone, guy said then unloaded a full trailer and it was gone in an hour, no problemo, we have water, gatoraid and single malt ready to go, the Cigars I ordered came in and are in the humidor.

We should be good to go...

quote:

Looking at the track, I wonder if it cant cross the Florida peninsula, gain strength back out in the Gulf and proceed to NOLA to blow my kid to Idaho.
God, I wish he would move!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I guess living in the UP I can grant you a pass. Today is the 14 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina that made landfall on the Mississippi Gulf Coast with a 28 foot storm surge. It crossed south Florida and intensified to a Category 5 Hurricane in the GOM before passing over the LA marshes and hitting MS head on. No power for many weeks, blue tarps on homes a year later.

Those computer models are illustrative of how primitive still is our ability to predict the weather.

Just about any member here could have drawn that plate of spaghetti. You know it's true. They've got the damn thing going everywhere. Anyone can predict that! Those predictions are next to useless, and this is when they have tons of historical data to feed onto the computers! Laughable!

I love when local weathermen are tracking a storm and they say "our computer models don't agree." Is that so? Any idea why that might be, Mr. Wizard?

Ridiculous! Useless! Thirty-seven supercomputers running 24/7 and you still don't know jack shit.

Mother Earth shall guide that storm on a whim and you just have to prepare for the worst if you're anywhere near that pasta on the screen.

Got gas, generator running fine, propane good and food/water good. Going to pick up some more Sake and beer, some brats and sausage, then tomorrow is yard cleanup and secure. Come Saturday I do not want to be rushing. Will tie down boats Sunday if looks to be coming here.

I’m at the Broward/Palm Beach county line. Doesn’t take much of a shift to bring it to my front yard. I’m with Para - they don’t know where this is going.

Gas stations are crazy - we got tanks and cans filled before the crazy. Just wait until they declare evacuations...

in case anyone is interested


https://earth.nullschool.net/#...6/loc=-67.219,22.300

quote:

Originally posted by arabiancowboy:

Good luck to you! It’s a roll of the dice every year. Panhandle wasn’t a lucky place last October. I’ll be hoping Dorian makes landfall as a weak one.

Thanks. When we left for Irma, getting to the panhandle was a slog, but it was smooth sailing afterwards continuing north.

I filled both 40 gallon gas tanks on our 5th wheel today. If we don't leave, I'm not sure what do do with our 5th wheel. I'm thinking I should screw some tie downs into the ground to chain the axles to and keep the truck hitched to it.

Got the patio furniture and birdfeeders in, the generator tested, extra water, beer, Vienna Sausages and canned foods, propane, new batteries in flashlights, lanterns and headlamps, medications and first aid supplies secured, phones and family radios charged, important papers and records in plastic bags in safe, Frogg Toggs and rubber boots, flying insect spray ...



Now we can focus on the important stuff for survival: Cases of Heineken to buy off the looters.
Shotgun vs. AR vs. Mini-14, green tip versus soft points, buckshot vs. slugs, red dots vs. irons, suppressors or not, and what kind of grease on the slide rails. Leather vs. kydex. One point vs two point slings. Shovels and bags of quicklime.

quote:

Originally posted by just1tym:
Sheez, I just looked at their "Cone of Concern", I know I have hardly watched any Local News on the tube but my God, is that just me or is that a new thing? The Cone of Concern has the whole state of Florida in it. I know that it's several days from any landfall but it now has me here in the deep south Florida Coast included again!

It's always been like that... the techniques for predicting the paths of hurricanes just aren't very good.

The way the NOAA track prediction cones work is like this. They draw circles around the predicted locations at 12 hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, 2 days, 3 days, 4 days, and 5 days and just kind of "connect the dots" between the circles.

They way they figure the sizes is they look at the last 5 years of hurricane predictions and choose circle sizes so that 2/3 of hurricanes are within the circles.

For example, for Atlantic hurricanes, over the last five years, the hurricane's actual position after 3 days has been within 102 nautical miles of the 3-day prediction 2/3 of the time, so now they draw a 102 nm radius circle around the 3-day prediction and say there's about a 2/3 chance the hurricane will be inside that circle 3 days from now.

More info here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

The panic buying has begun in the Tampa area. Walmart rationing water, Sam's Club gas lines running out into the street, big crowds grabbing everything resembling a bottle of water. I came for pellets for my grill, bacon, and some beer. Otherwise, all set.

Sunday, my wife will scour the stores looking for last minute deals on fresh meat the stores want to dump. Which is why I needed the beer, bacon and pellets for the grill.

My track has the Hurricane eye coming ashore over St. Augustine, 16th Street to be specific...
Someone in Vegas must have a way of making money on the landfall.

Seriously, to those in the track of the storm, stay safe!