On further thought, what they may want is the population. They are in a real demographic collapse.

With that said…. Given what Ukraine did to Russia, I’m not sure what happens to China, without nukes.

I think Taiwan’s’ manufacturing base could give them real hell.

Similarly, I think Poland with her own+Germany’s manufacturing would give Russia hell.

The main issue is that, for Russia, a war is just a way to have an enemy engage in genocide, on your behalf, for little political cost, and marginal economic cost.

China may see the invasion of Taiwan in a similar fashion - but I don’t know if China uses its hated minorities in its military, the way Russia uses everyone but White Russians.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
What does Taiwan have that China wants that will survive a war?

Geography.

Imagine that Jefferson Davis took off to Key West instead of surrendering.

No American should be harmed in any way, no American treasure should be lost.
If the neighboring country can't do it or won't we should not.
I don't care what they make there, if we let this get to this point that we can't make things to sustain our interests we should be made to suffer so this situation does not ever happen again.
Unfortunately we never seem to learn any other way.
Who will be the first to offer up there loved ones for a War with China over a country that even the locals(surrounding country's) don't seem to want to defend or even recognize.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
What does Taiwan have that China wants that will survive a war?

Greatly expanded sea basin territory of sorts. Prob geopolitically strategically significant, if it can hold and control Taiwan after the smoke clears. And they probably could.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
TSMC has a new fab just north of Phoenix. It’s quite an impressive sized campus.

Intel has been going gangbusters at their Chandler fab. Major construction under way.

Yes I too hope the fabs are wired in Taiwan to keep the technology out of the hands of the Chinese.

The Chinese would make it impossible to live in Taiwan for those who refused their mandates and to allow the fist of communism be shoved down their throats. Think armed federal soldiers and federal police coming to your door to make you disappear because they got tired of messing with you. Then your assets seized. Poof, you're gone, your friends and colleagues never see you again. Literally. That's how they roll, SOP.

The war hawks are always hopeful for new real fighting conflicts to arise, but nothing is going to happen here.

The costs of such military and coercive actions by China would be devastating to the global economy. By conservative estimates, place the immediate loss to the global economy from a Chinese military blockade of Taiwan at above $2 - 5 trillion in economic damage in the first year. This estimate amounts to a 5 percent drop in the global economy (the global financial crisis in 2009 saw a 5.9 percent fall). Taiwan would suffer the most in this scenario, with a major loss to its economy, but China’s economy would experience a larger one.

The global economic decline from Chinese military action against Taiwan largely stems from the halt of Taiwanese semiconductor chip manufacturing. According to market research firm TrendForce, Taiwan currently maintains about half of the world’s chip production capacity, including close to 80% in the most advanced examples (7 nm and under). As a result, trillions of dollars in economic damage would come from supply chain disruptions in consumer electronics, automobiles, telecom, health and other industries dependent on the advanced technology. 

Efforts by major powers to increase domestic chip supply with new, targeted industrial policies may lower present dependencies on Taiwan over time, but the island’s strong position in the global semiconductor industry will not be significantly diminished anytime soon. Alongside increases in chip manufacturing in the US and Japan, China’s massive growing investments in production is set to cut into Taiwan’s position in the short run. China may soon challenge Taiwan as the primary producer of legacy chips. Nonetheless, Taiwan will remain significant. It is estimated that its share of both mature and advanced chips will only drop by 4 and 6 percent respectively by 2027. 

The real danger to Taiwan's democracy and sovereignty is from within - infiltration, corruption, and blackmail.

Taiwan's only winning strategy is to make China believe they will burn the place to the ground before they surrender. But, as I said, the real danger I stated above puts that strategy at risk.

I'm from the time when U.S. Navy ships went up and down the waters between China and Taiwan and was even on one of those ships. I would be for maintaining that strategy. It's similar to the U.S. troops stationed in West Berlin against the threat of USSR invation.

I’ve seen it surmised that Taiwan could attack the 3 Gorges Dam with missiles and by creating a significant breach, inflict as many as 400 million casualties and vastly damage manufacturing infrastructure… provided the missiles could get through. It would be worse than a large nuke sans radiation.

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
<<snip>>
I’d give you $20 if you could point to where Eswatini is on a map.

It's several hundred miles due east of Johannesburg, and was formerly known as Swaziland.

The USA doesn't have to GO to war to defend Taiwan. All we have to do is have a strong man/woman in charge that says absolutely not. A smart China will wait it out until a president Reagan, Bush, Trump, etc is not in office and wait for a Biden or Obama to be in office.

Strongmen wait for weak leaders in office before they do anything.

If the US blocked any shipping of China products to USA, the Chicoms would have major problems. Trump could do that, and just might.

quote:

Originally posted by konata88:

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
TSMC has a new fab just north of Phoenix. It’s quite an impressive sized campus.

Intel has been going gangbusters at their Chandler fab. Major construction under way.

Yes I too hope the fabs are wired in Taiwan to keep the technology out of the hands of the Chinese.

I think the critical things to destroy are the litho equipment and the masks. And at least the masks.

The problem China has with taking over the Taiwan TSMC lab, they have no clue how to operate it.

ASML can shut down Taiwan with the flick of a switch.

They showed China last year about fuck around and find out when china attacked a Netherlands ship.

China has prepared for DECADES for a Taiwan invasion and it still ain't feasible. TSMC will be razed at landfall.

Foxconn has already relocated to India and TSMC is building foundries here. China will inherit a smoking crater.

It seems many are missing the cultural reasons that the PRC would like Taiwan returned to the control of their government. I'm sure they would happily take control of any industry that Taiwan had left, but the return of the island to mainland rule is the most important reason for them

Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa, was taken by the Chinese from the Dutch and then loss to the Japanese during the first Sino-Japanese war. At the close of WW II, the KMT lost the war with of the Main Land and invaded Formosa, where they established what they considered the rightful ruling party of the mainland. The KMT was the largest warlord (Chiang) army that fought against Mao and established a government in Taiwan by declaring martial law...their first presidential election was held in 1996.

An American comparison would be if Robert E Lee hadn't surrender at the close of the Civil War and taken his troops to Florida, established martial law there, and called themselves the rightful government of the United States.

quote:

Originally posted by 9mmepiphany:
It seems many are missing the cultural reasons that the PRC would like Taiwan returned to the control of their government. I'm sure they would happily take control of any industry that Taiwan had left, but the return of the island to mainland rule is the most important reason for them.

Sort of....

Since the KMT fled the mainland to create Taiwan, the two sides have evolved into separate cultures; while both Taiwan and mainland are ethnically Chinese, the mores, the culture and behaviors of the two are distinctly separate. We saw the changes with Hong Kong, as social subversion with a bit of heavy-handedness allowed social distinctions to be flattened out or outright changed and any pre-CCP Hong Kong differences to be erased. As HKers left the country, the CCP worked to replace them physically with mainlanders to include forcing businesses to put into place 'acceptable' leaders and the removal or minimizing of notable community figures, thus Hong Kong today, culturally isn't what it was during and prior to the hand-over. Overly optimistic HKers attempted to downplay the continual changes until there was no more change to make, resulting in a Hong Kong that isn't the same any longer.

The CCP has come out to say that all ethnic Chinese should follow their leadership and mandates globally...which include those who are born-in & citizens of other countries. While the CCP's existence was based around removing & erasing China's dynastic-monarchical past, its actions are following the desires to be the ethic hegemon of all Chinese people globally. Hong Kong and Macau are now under their rule, Taiwan is next with Singapore right after and for the more hawkish party members, I'm sure have dreamy designs to settle things with Vietnam who ethnically are cousins to the Southern Chinese (Cantonese) but, evolved to be its own distinct culture, language and country.

I believe it's also the perspective of both the KMT in Taiwan as well as chicom that there should only be 1 china. The issue is that each side believes that they should be the basis for the 1 china.

I've found that the newer generations of Taiwanese, especially the middle/techno classes are leaning more toward reunification with the mainland simply based global economies.

Hong Kong was always the PRC's "backdoor" for trade with the world when political tensions made open trade "problematic". AS open trade with the PRC became normalized, the need to keep up the facade of a "separate HK" became less important...that's why the UK returned HK to the PRC prior to the end of it's treaty

quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:
The real danger to Taiwan's democracy and sovereignty is from within - infiltration, corruption, and blackmail.

Taiwan's only winning strategy is to make China believe they will burn the place to the ground before they surrender. But, as I said, the real danger I stated above puts that strategy at risk.

I agree. The enemy within is the real danger. Only a united Taiwan can stand against a bully like China.

The same is true here in the US. Traitors like Biden can be bought off.

I would hope so. They are one of our truly democratic allies in Asia and are high productive as a country.

My family is currently there for the summer so I would pray that we act if it were necessary.