how convenient

https://www.theatlantic.com/id...a-nibrs-2021/629797/

Crime—particularly the spike in murder that the country has seen over the past two years—is thought to be weighing heavily on the minds of voters, with November’s midterm elections no longer all that far away. When the FBI reports national crime estimates for 2021 this fall, they have the potential to be a Big Deal, politically speaking. If murders are still way up relative to a few years ago, as most experts anticipate, the Republicans are sure to blame Democrats both as the party in power.

But whatever numbers the FBI releases, they are unlikely to provide the clarity into crime trends that the public deserves. And that’s because of a recent, and significant, change to how the FBI collects crime data. As a result, saying with any confidence whether crime is up or down may be virtually impossible.

On paper, the new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) is clearly superior to the Uniform Crime Report Summary Reporting System, which it replaces. NIBRS enables agencies to collect data on multiple offenses within the same incident (such as a robbery that leads to a murder), provides greater insight into a wider array of a jurisdiction’s crimes compared with the old system

But there are major issues. To begin with, of the nation’s nearly 19,000 law-enforcement agencies, more than 7,000 are not yet reporting data to NIBRS. Though they have had years to prepare for this switch—the FBI announced the change in 2015 and gave out more than $120 million to help agencies make the transition—only 62 percent, covering just 65 percent of the U.S. population, are reporting to NIBRS for 2021, according to the FBI.

Eight agencies covering 1 million or more people each will not report NIBRS data, including both the NYPD and LAPD.

more at link

Don’t fret, the agencies reporting will continue classifying crimes as lesser crimes to lower their local crime rates.

I’ve seen it. For example, My old department classified a B&E to a Motorvehicle (felony) to Larceny from a MV (misd) to reduce the rate. Every PD I talked with did the same thing. They can’t play the film-flam with every crime, like murder, but trust and believe that even rapes get re-classified to lower assault charges.

Much like schools that don’t call the police and try and deal with things internally to avoid their crime rates going up.

If I see crime stats from a local city/state/college , I just add 10% to the overall numbers and go with that.

Once the special interests and politicians do their magic, there won't be much accurate information to draw any conclusions from.
The abridged version is this; the police killing of George Floyd and legal guns that turned illegal on their own caused most of the problems.

The victims are victims, the perpetrators are victims and the rest that obey the law are responsible, just because.

Breaking! Politicians lie to make themselves look good! Who would have thought?

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:
They can’t play the film-flam with every crime, like murder, but trust and believe that even rapes get re-classified to lower assault charges.

Indeed. Rapes become sexual assaults, sexual assaults become harassment, and harassment becomes disorderly conduct.

"Look, rapes have dropped 70% this year!"

People aren't even bothering to call the police to report crime any more. No point in waiting on hold for 45 minutes to report your car's broken window.

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:
I’ve seen it. For example, My old department classified a B&E to a Motorvehicle (felony) to Larceny from a MV (misd) to reduce the rate.

Incorrect.

The UCR Crime Reporting Manual specifies that thefts from vehicles are reported this way rather than as burglaries.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/additional...ons/ucr_handbook.pdf

See Page 33.

Rules like this ensure that data is reported uniformly across the country.

My Dept was a beta tester for NIBRS. It was a nightmare. A simple arrest went from 30-45 minutes to over an hour to fill out the damn forms. If someone was a shoplifter, I had to determine if it was a hate crime. And of course, once everyone found out what a disaster it was, there was no going back, since the Dept accepted money to implement NIBRS.
No wonder 7K PDs wont use it!

quote:

Originally posted by DaBigBR:

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:
I’ve seen it. For example, My old department classified a B&E to a Motorvehicle (felony) to Larceny from a MV (misd) to reduce the rate.

Incorrect.

The UCR Crime Reporting Manual specifies that thefts from vehicles are reported this way rather than as burglaries.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/additional...ons/ucr_handbook.pdf

See Page 33.

Rules like this ensure that data is reported uniformly across the country.

Hahahaha, thanks for the laugh. Just because the book says you can’t change the description or reported crime, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t happen.

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
People aren't even bothering to call the police to report crime any more. No point in waiting on hold for 45 minutes to report your car's broken window.

Breaking windows is involved in a very minimal number of thefts from vehicles.

In the vast majority of cases, the car doors were left unlocked.

Often accompanied by laments of "But I thought I lived in a good area!" (You might, but bad guys travel, even to Mayberry...) and "I've been leaving my doors unlocked for X years and never had anything stolen!" (Well, you're not a victim until you are...)

Lock your doors. Leave any valuables like money or electronics out of sight. These two common sense, low-effort steps will reduce your chances of victimization immensely.

And for the love of God, if you're going to choose to leave your car doors unlocked, don't leave guns and/or the keys to the vehicle inside. That happens all. the. damn. time.

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:

quote:

Originally posted by DaBigBR:

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:
I’ve seen it. For example, My old department classified a B&E to a Motorvehicle (felony) to Larceny from a MV (misd) to reduce the rate.

Incorrect.

The UCR Crime Reporting Manual specifies that thefts from vehicles are reported this way rather than as burglaries.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/additional...ons/ucr_handbook.pdf

See Page 33.

Rules like this ensure that data is reported uniformly across the country.

Hahahaha, thanks for the laugh. Just because the book says you can’t change the description or reported crime, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t happen.

That may be, but your example is invalid since the reporting manual specifically says how to report a vehicle burglary.

It’s nothing new.

The U.K. and other European countries have been running the statistical BS game for a while now to cover-up sharp increases in crime over the years.

From The Guardian 12/2020 -

Greater Manchester police let 80,100 crimes go unrecorded in year

Isn't it sort of counterintuitive for PDs to underreport crime since any basis of budget increases would have to be based on more crimes?

What happens with data for places like san francisco where police don't even respond to burglary less than some amount?

Statistics - garbage in, garbage out.

quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:
Isn't it sort of counterintuitive for PDs to underreport crime since any basis of budget increases would have to be based on more crimes?

It really depends. Budget is one thing, but making the city look safe or a specific precinct (zone/area/whatever) look effective are also things.

If you read about things like NYPD's CompStat (now exported to many other agencies) you can see some of the pitfalls of stat programs and stat fixing.

quote:

Originally posted by konata88:
What happens with data for places like san francisco where police don't even respond to burglary less than some amount?

Statistics - garbage in, garbage out.

Some may route callers to an online reporting or phone reporting system where the report is created that way. Others may just show up not reported.

Index offenses (Part I crimes in the UCR) are what really matter.

In Seattle, the new Mayor administration is blaming it on the previous administration. Same with Homelessness, Drugs, fill in blank ____

He may be correct.

It’s always someone else fault. My question to them is, “What are you going to do to fix it?”

Like the scene in The Untouchables, where Sean Connery’s questioning Ness…what are you prepared to do?
https://youtu.be/9ALcqt6GMhM

/drift

At this point the crime numbers, somewhat like those surrounding inflation, are soooooooo out of control, everyone feels and sees it. So it's all but irrelevant what politicians (i.e. liars) claim anymore. No one but the dimmest bulbs among us are listening to them anymore.

This crime report will get lost just like the Border/immigration report that was due in March.

Will the crimes committed by the FBI be included in this data?