Food prices have risen 250% in the last few years. I know costs are up, but not 250%.

I suspect sellers are trying to keep their prices high, hoping to get rich.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by c1steve:
Food prices have risen 250% in the last few years. I know costs are up, but not 250%.

I suspect sellers are trying to keep their prices high, hoping to get rich.[/QUOTE

Price goes up, demand goes down.

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Originally posted by RogueJSK:

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Originally posted by Rey HRH:
Late 2022, general consensus was that we were heading into a recession or stock market dip in 2023. I was already in cash early 2022 with plans to reenter in October 2022 but did not because of the consensus. I simply dipped my toes back in.

Well, shit, 2023 was good for the stock market and I estimate I missed out on a 20 to 25% gain.

Thus demonstrating yet again why trying to predict the future and time the market is a losing proposition.

Important investment adage: "Time in the market always beats timing the market."

Keep investing at a steady pace. Ride out the bad times, and the good times after will more than make up for it. (Historically, they always do.)

Just because I suck at it like most people, it doesn't mean it's impossible. I will grant you it may not be a winning strategy for most people but it is possible. Here are the reasons why I say so.

1) They have highly leveraged securities that are designed to pull multiples of what the broader market does and they're designed just for overnight investing. These securities are actually not for the average consumers but for professionals.

2) You have professional managers spending a lot of time and money analyzing which sectors are on the rise or going low. These are strategies of timing the market or portions of it.

Yes, the average golfer can't manage to cover a pond on the front of a green from 300 yards away but that doesn't mean it's impossible; it just means only people like Tiger Woods can do it.

I've had hunches before of cashing out at certain points but did not. I'm still kicking myself for not doing so. So the one last two times i listened to my hunches were only 50% right. If ever I get another hunch, I'll still cash out. Missing out on a 25% gain is an acceptable trade off for giving myself a chance of avoiding a 50% drop in my portfolio.

When prices are high along with supply, people will begin to stop buying because they can't afford it. As a result, unemployment will go up because the manufacturing of these goods is no longer needed or at least not at the same output levels. Prices will then drop, reducing supply and it all starts all over again, and again, and again. Supply side economics 101.

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Originally posted by Rey HRH:
Missing out on a 25% gain is an acceptable trade off for giving myself a chance of avoiding a 50% drop in my portfolio.

As a retiree, I agree. Finance is not just math. In fact, it isn't math anyhow. It is all a gamble. The future cannot be predicted, only guessed. Much of retirement finance is being able to sleep well!

History suggests that the biggest risk to a retiree's net value is "Sequence of Returns" risk. Losing 50% within the first decade is unrecoverable. Losing 50% after 30 years of retirement is irrelevant for most people.

A few short time periods notwithstanding, average returns of stocks are the same as bonds. Selling off stocks and going to cash can be a smart guess with no downside. Assuming one has amassed sufficient net worth, missing an opportunity is acceptable.

We are currently less than 10% stocks, 70% t-bills, the rest precious metals.

The reverse glide slope allocation reduces sequence of returns risk significantly, and improves the withdrawal rate.

When the market drops at least 20% we will start buying in, aiming for 30% stocks. Dollar cost averaging our buy in over a year. Then we'll increase that by 3% each year up to 60%-70% stocks.

Being retired is a whole different game than being 40 and earning.

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Originally posted by chellim1:
It's going to vary location to location, but a recent buy/rent analysis for my daughter in NoVa came down on the side of rent.

This really makes the most sense. When rents are out of whack as compared to buying, it makes more sense to rent and put the difference into savings/investments.

The term I heard about two years ago was "rolling recession" and I think it was appropriate. Different segments of the economy, regions of the country, industries and professions/skills are experiencing recession at different times.

Vehicle inventories are stacking up because everyone who wants a $75K pickup truck and can qualify for a loan has already bought one. Everyone else is saying, "you know I think my car can last another year."

People have finally had enough of fast food charging outrageous prices for a crappy product and are pulling back. Turns out people don't want to pay $10 for a crappy hamburger or $7 for burnt coffee.

It seems like a lot of project based business (consulting/IT/markerting) and the professionals that work in those types of businesses are really beginning to get squeezed. It's easy to save several hundred thousand dollars this year if I delay a project until next year.

So where does it end? If I knew that I'd be retiring to my own private island right now. People have been saying for the past two years we are going to hit a recession; it hasn't happened yet.

Will it happen? Almost certainly, but it could be next quarter, next year or next two years. No one knows for sure. But the old rules still apply, try to avoid debt as much as possible and try to save what you can.

Back in 2002 the prevailing wisdom was that housing prices had to come down. Well they didn't come down so in 2004 we bought are first house on a 5/1 interest only ARM with a home equity line of credit for the 20% down payment because everyone said get as much house as you can afford. By 2009 our house had dropped 20% in value. It took every penny I had in savings to refinance into a 30-year fixed mortgage which turned out to be stupid because the Fed kept interest rates so low. We would have been better staying with the ARM for several more years and refinancing at something like 2.5% fixed.

As already been stated, most people can't time the stock/investment market and most people can't time the economy either. Best course of action is to understand the risks you face and do your best to put plans in place to mitigate those risks.

Where I live everyone is living like prices are still what they were 5 years ago. Restaurants are packed all day long, 80k trucks are still flying of the lot, and home prices and rent never stop rising. I don't understand how the majority of people are still spending like this.

Good discussion ladies and gents. Cannot argue with most of you.
Went to the grocery story the other day while in town. Not really needing anything but occasionally will do and pick up some on sale items. For the first time in my life I walked out with nothing.

Prices were down right scary on everything. Just nuts. Yes, some people have $ there is no doubt. But there are lots of folks who more or less just get by. Don't rob their neighbors, work basic lower paying jobs. Don't hurt anyone. Mind their own business. Care for neighbors and friends. And for that segment of our communities. These are tough times.

I have said for a long time that the stock market is not what it once was. I think it is prudent to try to think outside the box a little bit. To me it feels like even with it being at record levels. Most are getting robbed a little at a time. So diversify and tread carefully as it is becoming a great place to get scammed. If as predicted by some. A big drop could be in the offing. And yes I realize it could go on like it is forever.

Mortgage delinquency is rising rapidly.

Commercial real estate default is at an all time high.

Car repossessions are through the roof.

Consumer debt at an all time high.

2025 is going to be rough regardless of who wins in November. This will not end well. Companies that were begging for employees 8 months ago are laying off in droves.

Stellantis just announced that they are hiring engineers from overseas as they are available at one third of what American engineers are paid.

China builds the majority of nameplates in the Buick lineup.

Just some more good news or fuel to the fire.

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Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Good discussion ladies and gents. Cannot argue with most of you.
Went to the grocery story the other day while in town. Not really needing anything but occasionally will do and pick up some on sale items. For the first time in my life I walked out with nothing.

Here's the thing: I went to Costco the other day. Spent $248 and the shopping cart was not even a third full horizontally and half full vertically. That's a effing eye opener. I asked the receipt checker on the way out where do I report a robbery.

I remember when I was a teen ager and my parents sent me to the commissary for groceries and it was about $20 for each grocery bag full.

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Originally posted by old rugged cross:
I have said for a long time that the stock market is not what it once was. I think it is prudent to try to think outside the box a little bit. To me it feels like even with it being at record levels. Most are getting robbed a little at a time. So diversify and tread carefully as it is becoming a great place to get scammed. If as predicted by some. A big drop could be in the offing. And yes I realize it could go on like it is forever.

I agree with you. Something sure smells with this stock market.

The Federal Reserve Is About to Go Full Banana Republic

https://libertysentinel.org/th...ull-banana-republic/

The good news is we can forever avoid a recession as the Govt just changes the measured terms so we never enter one.
We are a perfect example af what happens when DEI people are elevated to positions of control

Never in my life until the past year or two have I gone into a store and picked up an item on the shelf put it in my cart or basket, then looked at the price and put it back.

And I’ve noticed other people doing the same thing.

One of Biden's top economic advisors:



https://rumble.com/v4t7qto-the...aign=TheLibertyDaily

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Originally posted by wcb6092:
One of Biden's top economic advisors:

snip]

I am agog, aghast, apalled, I wouldn't let this guy advise me that my zipper was down.

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Originally posted by sigspecops:
Where I live everyone is living like prices are still what they were 5 years ago. Restaurants are packed all day long, 80k trucks are still flying of the lot, and home prices and rent never stop rising. I don't understand how the majority of people are still spending like this.

It’s the same here. % just = that all they are doing is going more and more into debt. Fuck it charge it/finance it mentality. No thanks. But yeah, I see the same shit here all day every day. Driving anywhere to do anything is a massive chore now. Entitled idiots everywhere. Entitlement today is a plague like I have never seen in my life.

I just exercise the adapt or die philosophy. I’ve cut so much shit out it’s ridiculous. But TX is changing and eventually the state is going to price me out. Between property taxes and homeowners, already at 10k per year and ain’t gonna take that long term. Rural land in another state already purchased. It’s driving me a little insane trying to gradually remodel the current home for future sale and at the same time I need to spend money on my land. No choice. Inflation, this bullshit administration, all outside of my control, so all you can do is keep marching forward and try to make a dollar twenty out of every dollar. I’m learning just to stay busy. I’ll be working a 2nd job, a side hustle, shortly. No choice, have to take on more work for a few years so I can bail out.

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Originally posted by wcb6092:
One of Biden's top economic advisors:


https://rumble.com/v4t7qto-the...aign=TheLibertyDaily

Top men! Top men I tell you!

It would honestly be hilarious if it wasn’t working to fuck up everything that normal people have built for themselves.