So inventories are full sales are flat or down. Prices are sky high.

Consumer credit is off the charts.

Not talking about housing. But in my neck of the woods prices are still sky high and things are not selling to fast. Have a friend in MO. who is moving to the Carolina's and his house is priced good and no offers for a month.

Where are we headed economically?

Magic 8 Ball says...

*shake shake shake*

It's going to vary location to location, but a recent buy/rent analysis for my daughter in NoVa came down on the side of rent.

She can afford to buy, but it doesn't make sense at current prices. I would say prices have to come down.

Prices in my area are high and selling super fast still. So many Californians are moving here and the soul of the city is changing. It sucks, I want to move and my wife is on a different page.

Could just be that individual markets can vary and it would be hard to make an universal statement based just on those facts.

Talking about more than real estate.

Seems like the stores are packed with inventory. No more shortages and places are busting at the seams with inventory. At the levels of inventory, especially at these off the chart prices and peoples credit cards maxed out. What gives?

Prices are still up hear and homes are moving quickly, it is amazing that companies are still holding or raising prices with higher inventory

Jobs report showed how little new hiring is going on, and big companies are dropping employees, Tesla for example.

Hopefully it will result in a significant voter referendum come November

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:

Where are we headed economically?

The scary answer is: To the same place your neighbor went when through hubris or trying to impress the girls or taking business advice from a Shaman, he spent down his savings and investment money on perishables, didn't fix the plumbing in his basement, maxed his credit cards because he expected to live the same lifestyle he lived when 'everybody' shopped at his hula hoop store. Then with no ready cash, no av. credit on the cards, a big business loan that he spent on a blueprint instead of fixing the roof there's a slump in business at the local mill, guys get laid off and are now seeking fortune as internet influencers but they haven't quite got there yet so they stop shopping at his increasingly raggedy ass store, and our hero is getting phone calls at night, mailboxes full of envelopes stamped, CAN'T WAIT, and his remaining asset is facing foreclosure.
In our story here, our hero looked at failing infrastructure, a town on fire, cars that spontaneously combust, fart smellers, excuse me, smart fellers telling him that it was just a minor turn down and his assets were really worth more than he thinks, to ignore the pot-holes on his street, accept that when the mayor says the town is wisely 'investing' in buying a hotel for invaders and all have to suffer a little more for the greater good, so Surprise! tax hike, and while all this happened instead of believing his own damned lieing eyes he continued the march with the nodding approval of neighbors and his friends at the government.
Now he's worried that Vinny isn't going to wait much longer for his bit-coin to go back up so he can get paid.

Our hero either needs to change his actions and beliefs right the fuck now or he's going the way of a Hemingway character who when asked how he went bankrupt, thought for a moment and said "Gradually, then all of a sudden."

Stagflation.

quote:

Originally posted by oldbill123:
Stagflation.

If we're lucky.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:

Seems like the stores are packed with inventory. No more shortages and places are busting at the seams with inventory.

Nope. Still "out of stock."

here too, pharmacies are hard hit with empty shelves of OTC meds.

quote:

Originally posted by dking271:
Prices in my area are high and selling super fast still. So many Californians are moving here and the soul of the city is changing. It sucks, I want to move and my wife is on a different page.

Same in Utah. A friend of ours is moving to Florida to be closer to family after she just had twins (she now has five kids). They lived in a nice, modest house here in Park City. It was listed at $1.8 million and sold in three days.

Late 2022, general consensus was that we were heading into a recession or stock market dip in 2023. I was already in cash early 2022 with plans to reenter in October 2022 but did not because of the consensus. I simply dipped my toes back in.

Well, shit, 2023 was good for the stock market and I estimate I missed out on a 20 to 25% gain. I said screw it and started to go back in. I finally got fully invested in the long term portion of my portfolio just before Iran started lobbing its attack on Israel. Since then, the market's been rocky but, at least, I really don't care because my long term horizon is 10 to 20 years out.

For my intermediate-term horizon, I started a subscription to ValueL ine's ETF advisory publication. I buy the ETF but I also buy one of the stocks in that ETF's top 10 holdings. I figure if that sector is expected to go high, then I can also place a bet on an individual stock in order to mitigate any downfalls in the sector or spike up any gains.

Real estate is for sure local. Real estate inventory has been really thin for the last year, along with fewer buyers. Everything has felt like grid lock - can't sell so they can't buy, which ripples through the entire market. The statistics say the pricing has come down a titch, but those numbers don't account for exactly the same homes. i.e. are people buying smaller less expensive homes, which makes the average (or median) come down?

One of my daughters and her husband are putting their home on the market next week in the SLC valley. We're keeping our fingers crossed!

Overall I believe the economy is headed for a serious hard crash. Fedgov is getting drowned in the cost of servicing the national debt. One believable scenario is that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates because of the government debt, which will spark serious inflation. Stagflation on steroids is what I expect.

quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:
Late 2022, general consensus was that we were heading into a recession or stock market dip in 2023. I was already in cash early 2022 with plans to reenter in October 2022 but did not because of the consensus. I simply dipped my toes back in.

Well, shit, 2023 was good for the stock market and I estimate I missed out on a 20 to 25% gain.

Thus demonstrating yet again why trying to predict the future and time the market is a losing proposition.

Important investment adage: "Time in the market always beats timing the market."

Keep investing at a steady pace. Ride out the bad times, and the good times after will more than make up for it. (Historically, they always do.)

Every time I hear someone talk like that I ask them since they are so sure it’s time to get out then clearly they must have an equally well thought plan of what will trigger getting back into the market. Without exception I am met with a blank stare or a poorly thought out answer.

You can’t time the market to get out if you can’t time the market to get back in. It really is that simple. Market timers usually tend to think in one direction only.

It seems appropriate to drop this here:
Bidenomics.

I don’t know how much more inflation we can all endure here.

I’ve been on a quest to find the best Italian hoagie in my local area so each Friday when I’m either off or WFH I look up a local place and order one.

I was looking at the Yelp reviews for the place I tried today and they had a screenshot of their menu from 2019 in the photos section. The regular (12”) Italian hoagie was $7.59 on the 2019 menu. Their website stated $10

When I picked it up I was charged $12.50

A 65% price increase in 5 years…WOW

And it was skimpy and not good, not even worth $7.59

Policies are set and we are governed by the most unqualified administration in our history. Not only does it vilifies corporations but then redirects the problems the administration creates, to them. America has the largest energy reserves yet The Biden Administration’ incompetence with its energy strategy is destroying the American economy & the inflation his policies have created has decimated the middle class. They are in denial. A foot-long sub at subway three years ago cost five dollars. Today it costs $11. From groceries to gas, everything is up by a third it’s former price.

Make no mistake, Biden is driven by world events instead of driving world events. We are governed by idiots.