By 2050, our sun is expected to be unusually cool.


It’s what scientists have termed a “grand minimum” — a particularly low point in what is otherwise a steady 11-year cycle.

Over this cycle, the sun’s tumultuous heart races and rests.



At its high point, the nuclear fusion at the sun’s core forces more magnetic loops high into its boiling atmosphere — ejecting more ultraviolet radiation and generating sunspots and flares.

When it’s quiet, the sun’s surface goes calm. It ejects less ultraviolet radiation.

Now scientists have scoured the skies and history for evidence of an even greater cycle amid these cycles.


GRAND MINIMUM

One particularly cool period in the 17th century guided their research.

An intense cold snap between 1645 and 1715 has been dubbed the “Maunder Minimum.”

Chief astronomer and director of the Franklin Institute Planetarium Derrick Pitts explains what can be learned
In England, the Thames river froze over. The Baltic Sea was covered in ice — so much so that the Swedish army was able to march across it to invade Denmark in 1658.

But the cooling was not uniform: Distorted weather patterns warmed up Alaska and Greenland.

These records were combined with 20 years of data collected by the International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite mission, as well as observations of nearby stars similar to the sun.

Now physicist Dan Lubin at the University of California San Diego has calculated an estimate of how much dimmer the sun is likely to be when the next such grand minimum takes place.

His team’s study, "Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs," has been published in the journal Astrophysical Journal Letters.

It finds the sun is likely to be 7 percent cooler than its usual minimum.

And another grand minimum is likely to be just decades away, based on the cooling spiral of recent solar cycles.

SOLAR FALLOUT

A quiet sun has a noticeable effect on its planets.

For Earth, Lubin says it first thins the stratospheric ozone layer.

Report: U.S. economy lost an estimated $694 million because people were focusing on the historic event
This impacts the insulating effect of the atmosphere, with flow-on effects including major changes to wind and weather patterns.

But it won’t stop the current trend of planetary warning, Lubin warns.

“The cooling effect of a grand minimum is only a fraction of the warming effect caused by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,” a statement from the research team reads.

“After hundreds of thousands of years of CO2 levels never exceeding 300 parts per million in air, the concentration of the greenhouse gas is now over 400 parts per million, continuing a rise that began with the Industrial Revolution.”

One simulation of a grand minimum on the Earth’s current climate anticipates a reduction of solar warming by 0.25 percent over a 50-year period between 2020 and 2070.

While the global average surface air temperature appears to cool by “several tenths of a degree Celsius” in the initial years, this reduction was rapidly overtaken by ever-increasing trends.

“A future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming,” the study finds.

“Now we have a benchmark from which we can perform better climate model simulations,” Lubin says. “We can therefore have a better idea of how changes in solar UV radiation affect climate change.”

Link

And here I thought it was called sunset...

So being eclipsed by a Tesla is insignificant?

2050? I'm out.

I'll be cold long before then

quote:

Originally posted by RichardC:
So being eclipsed by a Tesla is insignificant?

The Ferengi have already bagged that Tesla.

Real science puts another dagger in the heart of global warming.

Amazing how the CO2 levels on Earth can have such an effect on something so much larger and so far away.

Al Gore had better give up his mansions, yacht and private jet soon

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Real science puts another dagger in the heart of global warming.

That's not the way I read the article. He specifically indicated that the cooling of the Sun would not stop the (presumed) current global warming trend. He also stated that the current CO2 levels are higher than had ever been seen before--a "fact" I don't necessarily concede.

flashguy

I am so tired of these idiots. The sun heats the ocean, warmer water doesn't hold as much gas, so CO2 levels in the atmosphere rise. CO2 levels are a trailing indicator, not the damn cause.

Guess they shouldn't have slept through high school chem class.

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Real science puts another dagger in the heart of global warming.

Ignore the man behind the curtain, those aren't the droids you are looking for. The moon is getting dimmer due to global warming, which is due to Repubs driving SUV's.

2050, I will be nice and comfy in my urn.

What? You mean there's more to the natural world and universe than my Prius......that can't be!!

quote:

Originally posted by flashguy:

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Real science puts another dagger in the heart of global warming.

That's not the way I read the article. He specifically indicated that the cooling of the Sun would not stop the (presumed) current global warming trend. He also stated that the current CO2 levels are higher than had ever been seen before--a "fact" I don't necessarily concede.

flashguy

Yes, I saw him throw in his conjecture at the end. I chose to ignore that and focus on the scientific part.


.

quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Real science puts another dagger in the heart of global warming.

Ignore the man behind the curtain, those aren't the droids you are looking for. The moon is getting dimmer due to global warming, which is due to Repubs driving SUV's.

Don't forget Dick Cheney and Halliburton. They're doing something diabolical too.



.

My theory is the increase in human population. There are about 6.5 billion people on the earth and we each have an average skin temperature of about 90.5 degrees (Discover Magazine) so we are probably emitting 90.5 degree heat into the atmosphere 24/7. That is in addition to all the methane we produce by expelling gas and the CO2 we exhale, again 24/7.

But, what do I know, I don't have a dog in this global warming fight and think we will probably kill ourselves off by other means.

It looks like Man made Global Climate Change is snuffing out the sun!

quiet is an average - far fewer, and smaller sunspots. Watch out for the occasional big one.

Nearing solar minimum, a sunspot takes aim at Earth – large solar flares possible

At present, we are closing on the solar minimum. So far in 2018, a total of 18 days (45%) have been without sunspots. But we have one now, a large one that surprised sunwatchers as it rotated into view February 4th. It’s at a place very near the equator, such that if it fires off a solar flare and/or coronal mass ejection (CME), we could very well see it on a direct collision course with Earth.

The positioning is similar to the 1859 Carrington event, which hurled a huge CME directly at Earth, the largest ever observed. A solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would cause widespread disruptions and damage to a modern and technology-dependent society. The solar storm of 2012 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth’s orbit without striking the planet.



Sunspot AR2699 continues to grow, more than doubling in size since it appeared on Feb. 4th.

The sunspot has developed an unstable “beta-gamma” magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of such explosions on Feb. 9th.

AR2699 contains two primary dark cores larger than Earth and a scattering of moon-sized magnetic condensations stretching more than 100,000 km across the surface of the sun.

Let’s hope it stays quiet as it rotates into direct view of Earth.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...lar-flares-possible/

quote:

My theory is the increase in human population.

So you are saying it's farts?!?!?!

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
But we have one now, a large one that surprised sunwatchers as it rotated into view February 4th. It’s at a place very near the equator, such that if it fires off a solar flare and/or coronal mass ejection (CME), we could very well see it on a direct collision course with Earth.

So you're saying the Sun is going to pop its big zit?



.