January 1995 to January 2000 and October 2002 to October 2007? While I know that the Trump election, prospects of the tax reform, and other factors this year have driven the market higher, to quote a famous movie line, "I've got a bad feeling about this." Not so much in the long run as I am still long in the market with a handful of personal investments and my 401K investments, but if history is any indicator, I'm pretty convinced this may be the time to take some profits off the table and hold on to some cash for the potential, dare I say likely, "rainy days" of investment opportunities ahead.

Anyone else or is it just me?

I sold all my stocks and bought Bit-Coin.

What can go wrong.

Of course its not just you, but if you plan on taking money out of the market you had better have a really good plan for how/when you are going to put it back in. Otherwise you are just guessing and you will lose money in the long run. Market timing isn't for the weak.

Every time I run into someone going all cash or mostly cash, my first question is what indicators will drive you back into the market?

Its your money though, bitcoin is probably smart. Lol

When pressed by reporters for his stock forecast, J. P. Morgan observed, “I expect that stock prices will continue to fluctuate.”

Old market saw..... bottom pickers and top pickers become cotton pickers.

After a run like we’ve had this year, it’s particularly important to rebalance your portfolio.

quote:

fter a run like we’ve had this year, it’s particularly important to rebalance your portfolio.

to what?

During the last crash I just let it ride.
I don't know enough to know how to time the market. I suspect I may have recovered faster than people who went all cash.
I am in lower risk investments. I like to earn a steady return, to much chance to lose it all on high risk investing.
I learned my lesson during the tech crash.
I know historically during the great depression most people who kept their money in the market recovered much faster than those who pulled out.
It hurts most people when a crash happens right before they want to retire. A friend of mine during the last crash had to delay her retirement a few years.

My broker has always pushed a conservative balance between equity and fixed income. I’ve always leaned toward over-weighting equities, particularly in recent years with the near nonexistent interest rates. When we met earlier this month we were in complete agreement - 50% equities, 50% cash or cash equivalents (T-bills). There are storm clouds out there and liquidity is unlikely to be ideal. From time to time projects on the ranch need an infusion of cash and we certainly wouldn’t want to need to sell anything in the middle of a rodeo. In addition, there will be overreactions in the rodeo, as well as people who do have to sell for one reason or another. Buying opportunities are a certainty. Having some cash to take advantage of them seems only prudent. As far as timing, forget it. Valuations are insane now, but that is no guarantee they won’t get crazier.

I'm not saying sell it all and sit on the cash, I'm more along the lines of increasing cash to something like 15% to 20% of my non-savings related investment portfolio, all inclusive and even using some of the profits to pay off some small debts (and to enjoy) while keeping some on hand for future reinvestment. I also keep the other saying of "all pigs get slaughtered" in mind. I am definitely not a day trader by any means and invest personal and 401k balances for the long term, but I like to actively keep tabs on things and reassess positions at least once a quarter or as changing conditions dictate. I'm still about 20 years from retirement.

Oh, and don't hate me because I've owned some Nvidia since only computer nerds and gamers knew what it was.

Well you have a point.

The whole 'buy low / sell high' only works when you actually sell when it's high.

And that is pretty much now with the indices at or near all-time highs.

I have sold some and am about 50 / 50 right now. So whenever we do have a pull-back I have some cash to pounce. I keep a simple chart that has gradients I would buy back in at and the what $$ amounts. Basically a pre-arranged formula for getting that 50% back in the market.

It helps me sleep at night and its a plan.

--------------------------------

I Look at it this way.. When the market goes down I am buying on sale.
I do not jump in and out, I did just move some mutual funds that were in a standard account to a Roth IRA so I could take advantage of the price drop after dividend .

One perspective by Janet Yellen from a couple days ago. Of course everyone needs to assess their own tolerance to risk, their age/time frame, their financial goals, and act accordingly.

Yellen Pans Bitcoin Boom, Shows Scant Worry Over Surging Stocks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-over-surging-stocks

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen weighed in on two headline-making financial market stories, sending a caution to investors over bitcoin while shrugging her shoulders at the value of U.S. equities.

In what’s likely to be her last press conference at the central bank, Yellen called the cryptocurrency, which has surged about 17 times in value this year, a “highly speculative asset” and “not a stable store of value.”

On U.S. stocks, which have climbed 19 percent this year, she was more relaxed. “There’s nothing flashing red there, or possibly even orange,” she said.

With the Fed only slowly taking its foot off the monetary policy accelerator amid falling unemployment, rising growth and subdued inflation, a number of Fed officials and other commentators have worried about soaring asset values. Some have called on central banks to talk down bubbles, while others, such as former Fed Governor Jeremy Stein, have pointed to a role for interest rates.

Yellen emphasized the central bank continued to monitor stability risks, but said there has not been any build up of leverage or credit growth that would cause a drop in prices to reverberate through the wider economy.

“We have in recent months characterized the general level of asset valuations as elevated,” Yellen said, adding, “the fact that those valuations are high doesn’t mean that they are necessarily overvalued.”

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
I sold all my stocks and bought Bit-Coin.

What can go wrong.

If you did this in the beginning of 2010, sold some along the way to get your cost basis out, and held the rest of the bitcoins until now, not much.