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Cars/Chip Shortage -- I just can't wrap my head around it Login/Join 
7.62mm Crusader
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuclear:
There are hundreds of chips in a modern car. This is stupid. You could run the engine and emissions control on one chip. One chip for the ABS and back up camera (when would you use both at the same time?). Another for the interior electronics, like entertainment, climate, etc. One for traction control and all the other nanny systems. Or people could learn to drive. If you have an automatic transmission, another for that. And for gods sake, get rid of the electronic steering. Their feedback sucks. It does have a parasitic draw on the engine, but so does the generator demand for all the other new electronic systems.
Robert Bosch got hurt bad locally by this chip issue as they manufacture steering column assemblies for many brands. Senior employees took the hit of being laid off while other areas at Bosch which produce hydrolic steering are still in need of employees. I think Ford trucks are one brand which get the Bosch electronic steering.
 
Posts: 18050 | Location: The Bluegrass State! | Registered: December 23, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by bald1:
quote:
Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
You can't meet Fuel Economy, Emissions, and Safety regulations without all the electronics. Blame the federal government for all the mandates. It's not going to decline, it will continue to get more complex.


I know you're right but I still can't help but think there is a lot of superfluous "stuff" in today's vehicles that could be eliminated. I can parallel park myself as an example.


I grew up driving cars with hand crank windows, hand adjusted seats, and hand adjusted mirrors. All items I now regard as electronic gizmos that will fail at some point and be expensive to replace. Note I stated REPLACE, because parts that were once repairable no longer are. Even engines are regarded as disposable by dealers today. Back when I was young if you had a blown head gasket you would remove the cylinder head and replace the gasket. Now the dealers will tell you that you need a new engine.


I've stopped counting.
 
Posts: 5789 | Location: Michigan | Registered: November 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
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quote:
Originally posted by teombe:
The BMW is a mild hybrid system, which doesn't really contribute to acceleration figures.

A couple of things are key factors - BMW massively underrates their engines. That B58 motor will do 382HP at the wheels at heat soak temperature. It's likely 450HP under more normal conditions.

Second, BMW's Xdrive system is a much more costly and efficient AWD system than the Focus RS. It is extremely efficient at putting power to the ground.

What does the hybrid set up do then?

A 4.4 second 0-60 in a 4,400 pound vehicle is impressive. I thought 5.2 seconds was pretty good for our 4,900 pound Explorer. A stock, standard 2008 Corvette does 4.5 seconds 0-60 with 430hp and 424lb/ft of torque while weighing 1,200 pounds less. Being turbo charged, the BMW will have a much broader, flatter torque curve, but 1,200 pounds is a lot of weight.
 
Posts: 12252 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Definitely
NOT Banned
Picture of teombe
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quote:
Originally posted by trapper189:

What does the hybrid set up do then?



Mostly to smooth the function of the Auto start/stop system. If you are in launch mode, it contributes very little to acceleration because it is basically a starter/alternator driven by the accessory belt.
 
Posts: 2047 | Location: Gilbert, AZ | Registered: February 13, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Seeker of Clarity
Picture of r0gue
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Took some searching to get to the bottom of this one:

https://www.bmwblog.com/2020/0...d-hybrid-technology/




 
Posts: 11504 | Registered: August 02, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
E tan e epi tas
Picture of cslinger
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quote:
Originally posted by Scooter123:
quote:
Originally posted by bald1:
quote:
Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
You can't meet Fuel Economy, Emissions, and Safety regulations without all the electronics. Blame the federal government for all the mandates. It's not going to decline, it will continue to get more complex.


I know you're right but I still can't help but think there is a lot of superfluous "stuff" in today's vehicles that could be eliminated. I can parallel park myself as an example.


I grew up driving cars with hand crank windows, hand adjusted seats, and hand adjusted mirrors. All items I now regard as electronic gizmos that will fail at some point and be expensive to replace. Note I stated REPLACE, because parts that were once repairable no longer are. Even engines are regarded as disposable by dealers today. Back when I was young if you had a blown head gasket you would remove the cylinder head and replace the gasket. Now the dealers will tell you that you need a new engine.


While I have had the exact same feelings you want to know the one window failure I have had over the many years and cars? A CRANK MANUAL ONE. Smile


Take Care, Shoot Safe,
Chris
 
Posts: 8078 | Location: On the water | Registered: July 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of bigdeal
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quote:
Originally posted by teombe:
I've been in the semiconductor industry for 20+ years, with most of them spending at least some of my time managing micros that are heavily used in the car industry.

To answer r0gue's question directly - BMW (and all manufacturers) get completed components from its tier 1 suppliers. They make plans to schedule production based on the stated availability of these components. Downstream, all the tier 1's, who make the components, are literally hand-to-mouth on chips from their major suppliers. In your specific example, every BMW has several of my company's controllers attached to the sensors in the exhaust system - among other places. We currently have no buffer inventory of this product (or any of the 30-40 other MCUs that can be used in a pinch). So the only way we can supply them with parts they didn't previously have on order is if somebody else cancels an order of automotive-tested devices (you start to see the problem here).

This situation happened because the tier 1 suppliers, who are very cost conscious, decided that they would cancel all of their chip orders in anticipation of the world ending back in 2020. When that didn't happen, they found themselves at the back of a very long line. Long story short, customers panicked and over-ordered. How much? I have no clue, since not many have cancelled.

Currently, there are orders on the books for about 1 and a half years' worth of fab output (think billions of chips) running at 100% capacity... which, well.. will never happen, because shit happens.

As other folks have said - there is no way to instantly increase capacity in any given fab - and in the case of automotive products, some of the equipment used is no longer purchasable due to the age of the process technology used.

Now, add a chip shortage to a wiring harness shortage, and a carbon fiber resin shortage, among other things- and you get wildly shifting schedules.
And just to simplify this, 'all' of these problems/issues point back to one specific group of people who caused them. Wanna take a guess which group that is? Here's a hint: Most of them possess an ego the size of Texas and a frontal brain lobe the size of a shirt button.


-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
 
Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of bigdeal
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quote:
Originally posted by M'headSig:
I believe (as others have said) that manufacturers will move to a S.O.P. where dealers will have an example of each model of a particular vehicle to test drive, and then the customer will be expected to order their car -- at MSRP or over, depending on demand.
You really believe in our current instant gratification world, the majority of people are going to wait weeks if not months to get a new car? Personally, I think that's all fairy dust.
quote:
Originally posted by teombe:
BMW massively underrates their engines. That B58 motor will do 382HP at the wheels at heat soak temperature. It's likely 450HP under more normal conditions.
And will likely burn crank bearings in the first 30k miles if history is any indicator. Wink
quote:
Originally posted by cslinger:
While I have had the exact same feelings you want to know the one window failure I have had over the many years and cars? A CRANK MANUAL ONE. Smile
Which was likely fixed in 5 minutes by the owners with a $8 part. Ah, the good ole days. Razz Smile


-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
 
Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by teombe:
This situation happened because the tier 1 suppliers, who are very cost conscious, decided that they would cancel all of their chip orders in anticipation of the world ending back in 2020. When that didn't happen, they found themselves at the back of a very long line. Long story short, customers panicked and over-ordered. How much? I have no clue, since not many have cancelled.


Can't speak for all tier 1s, but this isn't what I've seen. I'm sure there are some really dumb stories.
Component lead times from Asia are usually 90 days minimum. The beginning of the shutdown in US was '2 weeks, then who knows' in Mid-march. That means firm orders for April, May & most, probably all, of June are already out there. Usually can't cancel those, so you plan to reduce orders for July, if possible depending on contract. We ended up down for 6 weeks & that was less than most other OEMs or individual plants. If you know any companies that can handle 6+ weeks of no sales & still purchase components as normal, let me know. They have (had?) cash to waste, I'll take some. They are apparently dumb enough to give it away.

An unexpected shutdown of indeterminate length is probably worst case scenario for global just-in-time production. Add in political stupidity & you get 2020/2021/2022.
 
Posts: 3360 | Location: IN | Registered: January 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Not as lean, not as mean,
Still a Marine
Picture of Gibb
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quote:
global just-in-time production


Don't you love it when LEAN initiatives turn anorexic?

We had this issue at one of my previous jobs. When you idle production lines due to supply issues, but refuse to add suppliers or build a reserve quota, LEAN can cause you to starve.




I shall respect you until you open your mouth, from that point on, you must earn it yourself.
 
Posts: 3411 | Location: Southern Maine | Registered: February 10, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Thank you
Very little
Picture of HRK
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The Average EV uses 2000 chips, more than double the number of chips used in a modern ICE vehicle.

With demand for EV's is up, and more companies are making them, selling more, so that compounds the chip shortage for ICE vehicles to some extent.

The more consumers demand computers that they can drive, the more the problem compounds.

https://www.scientificamerican...rce-secretary-says/#
 
Posts: 24844 | Location: Gunshine State | Registered: November 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Hop head
Picture of lyman
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quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
The Average EV uses 2000 chips, more than double the number of chips used in a modern ICE vehicle.

With demand for EV's is up, and more companies are making them, selling more, so that compounds the chip shortage for ICE vehicles to some extent.

The more consumers demand computers that they can drivee, the more the problem compounds.

https://www.scientificamerican...rce-secretary-says/#


wow

had not idea that many chips were in the average car,

I figured a handful maybe depending on options



https://chandlersfirearms.com/chesterfield-armament/
 
Posts: 10706 | Location: Beach VA,not VA Beach | Registered: July 17, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
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Your toaster and microwave have handfuls of IC chips.


There isn’t hardly anything anymore made that isn’t wifi/network enabled or using some kind of timer and/or and power control.

Digital controllers and sensors everywhere…





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 26758 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Staring back
from the abyss
Picture of Gustofer
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quote:
Originally posted by mark60:
It's amazing isn't it? I can't believe that you almost can't buy any new car today.

That's maybe not a bad thing.

Not telling anyone how to live their lives or what to spend their own money on, but it seems that too many people just have to have the newest latest greatest when the old one worked just fine.

My county has a population of around 12,000. In the past ten years there have been 7000 new vehicle registrations. That's just crazy to me.

I drive a ten year old truck and will drive it into the ground. I also have a 54 year old car that runs like a top and a 52 year old motorcycle. I have no need for a $75,000 new vehicle.


________________________________________________________
"Great danger lies in the notion that we can reason with evil." Doug Patton.
 
Posts: 21125 | Location: Montana | Registered: November 01, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Definitely
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Picture of teombe
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quote:
Originally posted by snidera:
quote:
Originally posted by teombe:
This situation happened because the tier 1 suppliers, who are very cost conscious, decided that they would cancel all of their chip orders in anticipation of the world ending back in 2020. When that didn't happen, they found themselves at the back of a very long line. Long story short, customers panicked and over-ordered. How much? I have no clue, since not many have cancelled.


Can't speak for all tier 1s, but this isn't what I've seen. I'm sure there are some really dumb stories.
Component lead times from Asia are usually 90 days minimum. The beginning of the shutdown in US was '2 weeks, then who knows' in Mid-march. That means firm orders for April, May & most, probably all, of June are already out there. Usually can't cancel those, so you plan to reduce orders for July, if possible depending on contract. We ended up down for 6 weeks & that was less than most other OEMs or individual plants. If you know any companies that can handle 6+ weeks of no sales & still purchase components as normal, let me know. They have (had?) cash to waste, I'll take some. They are apparently dumb enough to give it away.

An unexpected shutdown of indeterminate length is probably worst case scenario for global just-in-time production. Add in political stupidity & you get 2020/2021/2022.


Based on where we are, we can probably guess where the other works. And I'd say that I don't think your employer is one of the ones who made particularly bad decisions. Unfortunately, most others literally cancelled orders or reduced forecasts going out quarters from March 2020. In addition, since a lot of our manufacturing capability is US-based and owned by us, we (in the past) have been able to meet massive increases in demand with decent ease. Just not when everybody is asking. All these things contributed heavily to the situation we're all in.
 
Posts: 2047 | Location: Gilbert, AZ | Registered: February 13, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I put a deposit down last Jul for an allocation for a Porsche 911S from my local dealer. Still no word on when that might actually turn into a production slot, and I don't think the car carrier burning up in the Atlantic will help the situation. I have pretty much given up on that car but will wait and see how long it takes before I decide to cancel it and get the deposit back.

Meantime, I ordered a 22 F150 on Mar 25th and I just got word that production is scheduled for the week of May 9th. VIN is assigned but window sticker has not been generated yet. No clue how long it will take to actually get the truck built and delivered.

I've also been trying to find an F250 XL 4X4 SuperCab work truck for my brother in Juneau AK. I've called over 20 dealers all over the country and was only able to find one that had one on the lot or inbound that wasn't already sold. It had a bit too much stuff that he didn't want to not enough of the options he needed so he passed on that one. Ford isn't taking orders on any more F250s this model year (at least for now according to my local dealer) so finding one on the lot not previously ordered is seemingly impossible. My other brother in GA who has a FedEx ground business has had his truck broker try to locate one as well with no luck.

So I don't things are going to improve any time soon and am biting the bullet on buying a new truck now before it gets worse.

Be interesting to see if the dealer will stick to the deal we made on the F150 when it finally comes in.
 
Posts: 1180 | Registered: July 23, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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“Meantime, I ordered a 22 F150 on Mar 25th and I just got word that production is scheduled for the week of May 9th.”

I ordered my F150 Feb.7 and all I’ve got so far is an email confirmation of the order.
 
Posts: 213 | Location: Michigan | Registered: October 26, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of myrottiety
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quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
The Average EV uses 2000 chips, more than double the number of chips used in a modern ICE vehicle.

With demand for EV's is up, and more companies are making them, selling more, so that compounds the chip shortage for ICE vehicles to some extent.

The more consumers demand computers that they can drive, the more the problem compounds.

https://www.scientificamerican...rce-secretary-says/#


I think the price of the Model 3 Long Range has gone up around $5K -$7K since I took delivery of mine 4 months ago. Percentage wise that's a pretty steep increase. But I'd assume it's tied to this plus demand for the vehicles.




Train how you intend to Fight

Remember - Training is not sparring. Sparring is not fighting. Fighting is not combat.
 
Posts: 8981 | Location: Woodstock, GA | Registered: August 04, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
I Am The Walrus
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I think the lesson we should all learn is: bring those jobs back to America!


_____________

 
Posts: 13387 | Registered: March 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave Bean:
quote:
Originally posted by RobLew:
What is Ford doing different? In NoVA it seems like Ford dealerships have cars, but others do not. Ex Warrenton Toyota = sad, right next door Warrenton Ford = cars...though that was a few months ago, but still Toyota was basically single digits.


Ford decided to keep production going and install the missing chips later. They did that for the F150, there are lots of them sitting in storage lots and some dealers. This was the first round strategy. Many of the cars you see cannot be delivery to the customer because they were missing important chips related to the safe operation of the car. They are still catching up with that batch



So my takeaway here is cars in Ford lot = LIES!!!!

In some ways that's worse.

Me - I'd like to look at that F-150

Ford - OK, but we can't sell it to you.

Me - WTF

At least in the Toyota lot I don't have false expectations because there's literally nothing to buy...


...that I will support
and defend...
 
Posts: 883 | Location: Northern VA | Registered: July 16, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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