quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
280,

Those numbers are almost impossible to comprehend. 400m people at risk. I wonder what is meant by that? Death, loss of property? An event like that even if it's just loss of property would rank up there with the greatest cataclysms ever to face man kind.

Like the Johnstown Flood of 1889, but multiplied by magnitudes of hundreds of thousands. David McCullough's description of that tragic event was horrifying. The scale of destruction and death that seems likely should that dam fail would make the Johnstown Flood look like an overflowing bathtub.

So they keep saying 400m people live below the dam, but I would imagine that 400m just means the dwellings that could be impacted, right?

Not everyone works where they live, and I would imagine the cities that are downstream include a host of people that commute into the flood zone for hours or days at a time.

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the numbers related to the water discharge.

That's a lot of water

I remember watching shows on the Three Gorges Dam a handful of years ago about its construction. The size of that project was hard to grasp on a TV. To think that it may fail is even harder for me to grasp.

quote:

Originally posted by 18Z50: The consensus is the complete and sudden failure of this dam complex discussion would be the single largest loss of life in human history at one time and would have a greater impact globally in setting back the advancement of mankind since the plagues and the resulting the dark ages.

We live in interesting time.

18Z50

No offense, but that's BS. There's no way that could cause "the dark ages". Y'all may have a model which shows that, but its crap. Most models used to show that bumblebees couldn't fly.

It would be a horrible loss of life, but not world ending.

The flood might be so biblical it wipes out their communist government. Biblical proportions.

What little tv news I watch, haven’t seen this mentioned. As always, I like getting the straight scoop on this forum.

quote:

Originally posted by 18Z50:
The consensus is the complete and sudden failure of this dam complex discussion would be the single largest loss of life in human history at one time and would have a greater impact globally in setting back the advancement of mankind since the plagues and the resulting the dark ages.

Not a chance in hell.

Maybe dark ages for China, but not the rest of the world.

quote:

Originally posted by recoatlift:
The flood might be so biblical it wipes out their communist government. Biblical proportions.

Cut it out and I mean right now. Take your bible and put it away. Keep your comments about the Chinese government out of this thread. If you want to talk out of your ass, do so elsewhere, in some other forum.

Stop with the Jesus-is-gonna-get-you crap. Stop with the end-of-the-world predictions. Stop trying to tie the dire circumstances of these unfortunate people to our dislike of the Chinese government.

If I have to address this again, I'm going to start handing out suspensions.

quote:

Originally posted by Veeper:
So they keep saying 400m people live below the dam, but I would imagine that 400m just means the dwellings that could be impacted, right?

Not everyone works where they live, and I would imagine the cities that are downstream include a host of people that commute into the flood zone for hours or days at a time.

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the numbers related to the water discharge.

The people impacted are just that, they will feel the effects should something go wrong. Downstream, obviously is the overall increase in water, whole communities going under, farmer's fields getting swamped, outlaying communities seeing their own tributaries back up resulting in their own in-direct issues. Upstream, may also feel the effects of landslides due to change in water pressure that end up creating barriers/natural dams resulting in water getting diverted towards directions that wasn't originally intended. Further downstream, a city like Shanghai would see flooding like you see in New Orleans and other coastal communities as all the water discharges into the ocean; bridges might get closed, public transit stops, food/produce deliveries are delayed/halted; all can have an effect and impact. The Yangtze I believe is in the top-5 highest water volume when compared to other worldwide river systems.

quote:

Originally posted by MattW:
...
The size of that project was hard to grasp on a TV. To think that it may fail is even harder for me to grasp.

I've been to TGD. It's on a scale that is hard to comprehend when it's 3 feet in front of you.

As for the dam, if it catastrophically fails, two major population centers plus something like 25% of the domestic supply of rice and fresh veggies comes from the area downstream of the TGD will be wiped out. Reports of a catastrophe killing several million Chinese are not to be dismissed out of hand. I could see a dam-draining catastrophe killing over 10 million people.

Are they in monsoon season? Or is it later in the summer?

quote:

Originally posted by sigalert:
Are they in monsoon season? Or is it later in the summer?

Smack in the middle of it. The monsoon rainy season for the Yangtze River basin runs June - August.

Does anyone know if those homes and businesses are insured in any way? Does China even have insurance companies as we know them in Western culture? Or are people just SOL with the loss?

quote:

Originally posted by tanner:
Does anyone know if those homes and businesses are insured in any way? Does China even have insurance companies as we know them in Western culture? Or are people just SOL with the loss?

Outside of the major cities, life in China turns rural-primitive rather quickly.
I highly doubt anything resembling "insurance" exists.
Even in the US - unless you have a flood insurance rider (many don't) you are SOL.

Experts can't even agree on the largest rivers in the world. Do you measure area drained, length, volume of water held, average discharge etc.

It looks like the Yangtze is almost double in size of the Mississippi in both length and average discharge.

I saw while googling for real time water level readings that now some eastern sections of the river have peaked and are receding a bit.

Holy Toledo! Re: The 2nd video: "Satellite imaging issue" and "a few millimeters" my ass!

"Independent concrete blocks?" "Not [anchored] to the bedrock below?" My Lord. Are they insane?

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
Maybe dark ages for China, but not the rest of the world.

It might wash Wuhan into Shanghai, but it would still leave a number of major population centers (including Beijing) untouched. I'm not sure where they get their numbers (and have none to offer in the alternative), but I'd just about bet that they expect disruption to agriculture to cause far more casualties than drowning or the physical impact of the water.

quote:

Originally posted by tanner:
Does anyone know if those homes and businesses are insured in any way? Does China even have insurance companies as we know them in Western culture? Or are people just SOL with the loss?

Insurance is available, business owners will have coverage for their businesses and properties. Not unusual for factories, plants, mills, and distributions centers to mysteriously go up in flames, only to later find out the business was in the toilet, had fallen out of favor of the local officials, behind on gambling debts, needed more money for a dowery, etc..

The general populace view insurance as a scam and not as risk mitigation, seeing it as a way for other people to get your money while getting nothing back in return. Insurance companies are like an oligarchy in China, as there's just a small handful of major companies providing policies, each one controlling certain markets...auto, business, home, life, etc.

Correct me if I'm wrong, though, but if 100,000,000 people all filed claims, wouldn't that bankrupt the insurance industry there and make it all useless? Insurance is based on paying a few claimants while taking the money from many policy holders. In the event of a cataclysm of this nature, there wouldn't be nearly enough money to settle claims.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

Like the Johnstown Flood of 1889, but multiplied by magnitudes of hundreds of thousands. David McCullough's description of that tragic event was horrifying. The scale of destruction and death that seems likely should that dam fail would make the Johnstown Flood look like an overflowing bathtub.

I was thinking that too. It's been a while since I read the book, but McCullough did a powerful job describing what it was like when all that water and debris slammed into Johnstown.

My other thought is whether there's been any effort to evacuate folks - at least those closest to the river. Of course, I can't imagine what it would take to move even a fraction of the number of people who live there. I do hope the dam holds.

I have a question. The damn was completed in 2006. All of that population / settlements and cities didn’t just happen in the last 15-16 years. So before the damn was in place how did the water run? Now I realize a catastrophic failure of a damn releases a fist of God level of power but before the damn how did these settlements flourish?

I am speaking 100% out of ignorance here so feel free to explain and call me a dumbass.

I have always said at the end of the day the VAST majority of humans are damn near identical people who want to live their lives, make a few bucks, provide for their family and be left the hell alone and it’s always horrible that those folks always pay the price of the few idiots and assholes. I pray those poor folks never experience a damn failure.