May not be much combat at all. If China shuts down the US electrical grid, lock up the pipelines, water and sewer at the local level, China can just sit back and after 9 months of chaos, including a winter, rabble fighting in the streets then ask for an unconditional surrender to turn the power back on. A president Biden with his lame cabinet would be frozen. John Kerry would be available to monitor the environmental impact for Biden. The next war will not be like anything the US is prepared for.

Back in WW I, the dreadnought battleship was THE major measure of maritime combat power. Nothing could threaten a battleship except another battleship.

Then, small, cheap, and VERY numerous torpedo boats (and later, subs) came along. Now, even a 3rd world naval force could counter a mighty battle fleet. 6 guys on a plywood torpedo boat could (and did) sink a battleship with a crew of over 1000 men, which took years to build, train, and integrate into the fleet. The Brits, especially, feared them, as they threatened to upset the balance of power and potentially negate the Royal Navy's ability to defend Britain.

Mines were another cheap and plentiful threat which could, and did, sink battleships.

Countermeasures were instituted to mitigate against these threats. The torpedo boat destroyer (soon shortened to 'destroyer') protected the capital ships, which themselves were protected by secondary batteries. Minesweepers helped protect against mines. Huge efforts were made to counter the submarine threat. These did not go away, and continued to cause problems in WW II, but they never did live up to the great fear they caused the battleship admirals.

Likewise, there are countermeasures against drones. We will have to see if the drone threat lives up to the hype. History can inform our decisions but not predict the future. . .

Interestingly enough, it seems every few years the idea of bringing back battle ships come up. I'd defer to the Navy guys on Battleships and Carriers.

If the videos from Ukraine are legit, tank on tank combat is still a thing. I suspect that terrain is going to be the biggest factor in tank employment in future conflict, if we do WWIII in Europe, Gulf War III or invade Mexico, we'll probably use a lot of tanks. If we repeat island hoping in the pacific, we'll probably leave the heavy armor home and use lighter options. Mega cities will be their own ball of problems, but I'm not too read in on those. I'm interested to see how the newer generation of APS systems do against systems like Spike and the various other ATGMS out there.

Looking at some of the new proposed tanks, we'll see remote turrets and auto loaders in the next Gen US Army tanks, possibly breaking into different types of tanks. Hopefully, They will incorporate APS and protective EW in the base design vs bolt on after the fact. The current M1s are very heavy, in some cases too heavy, so hopefully we'll see some weight reduction. Given the number of rounds carried in a Tank vs the number of ATGMs that can be carried by dismounts, the tank still has an advantage. I haven't seen a TOW carrier variant of the JLTV, so you are stuck with Bradleys (2 plus stowed), Stryker (2 plus stowed), Hummer (1 plus stowed). IMHO the TOW is outdated, we need a heavy shoot and scoot missile for vehicles. Javelins are great, but heavy for dismounts and not issued in large quantities. I'd like to see an extended range version. Granted, it's been a while since I shot qual on both systems.

Mobile Protected Firepower (don't call it a light tank) is for support of infantry. The plan is to use the 105mm gun in direct fire mode to reduce enemy strongpoints and fortifications in support of assaults. It can also be used against enemy IFVs and light armor. Kind of like the retired Stryker Mobile gun system. This kind of harkens back to WWII where tanks maneuver with infantry in built up areas to include urban ones.

On drones and loitering munitions, they are definitely changing the game. The US Army has been pivoting it's doctrine to LSCO in recent years and there is a lot of notes being taken from Ukriane. You are going to see everyone and their brother using everything from military to civilian drones for everything from ISR coms to logistics. You'll see similar capabilities with loiter munitions (except logistics!). Drone swarms and loitering munitions are going to make massing forces dangerous.

However, one of the reasons that drones are so effective right now is the lack of low cost, effective counter drone systems. You won't use F-16s, Patriots or even Stingers (hopefully replaced soon) to shot down cheap drones. We're working on MSHORAD (Maneuver Shortrange Air Defense) and some laser based anti-drone systems. Another counter drone effort is the drone buster and other point jammers these are available, but they aren't out there in large numbers yet. These will reduce the effectiveness of the commercial drones.

One of the things that I think is going to happen is the increase in ground UAVs. Think drone tanks, smaller and lighter then their manned counterparts and/or armed recon vehicles. A couple of the smaller ones where shown at the Infantry, Sorry Manuever Conference, at FT Moore (Benning).

Just remember, we don't have the best track record on predicating the next war and our opponents have put a lot of effort into asymmetric warfare, so it's going to be interesting.

UK Daily Mail article about a big Russky tank formation just getting totally wiped out by the Ukies in no time flat:

Incredible moment Russian convoy is destroyed and Vlad's troops are forced to retreat in 'one of the largest attacks on tanks of the Ukraine war'

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
UK Daily Mail article about a big Russky tank formation just getting totally wiped out by the Ukies in no time flat:

Incredible moment Russian convoy is destroyed and Vlad's troops are forced to retreat in 'one of the largest attacks on tanks of the Ukraine war'

Battalions don't move (or shouldn't move) without some reconnaissance being conducted, whatever they found either it was a lot different than what they believed or, the commander ignored the signs and charged right in. No air defense and no air support .

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
UK Daily Mail article about a big Russky tank formation just getting totally wiped out by the Ukies in no time flat:

Incredible moment Russian convoy is destroyed and Vlad's troops are forced to retreat in 'one of the largest attacks on tanks of the Ukraine war'

Thats an intresting formation for an attack. I'd guess they didn't know those launchers were there. As an anti-tank guy, thats a great shot for me. The only thing better would be a shot on the rear or roof of the tank.

An intresting link on ATGM usage in Ukraine:
https://www.ausa.org/publicati...-missile-problem-set

quote:

Originally posted by Aeteocles:
Every military asset as developed to exploit a weakness, and itself has weaknesses that are susceptible to being countered. There is no ultimate weapon that can defeat every other technology.

Drones are here. They work great on tanks and personnel, probably ships and the like. What they don't work great on are fighters and bombers with guided missiles targeting their command vehicles/structures. So, those structures and command vehicles need anti-aircraft and radar batteries. And those are susceptible to cruise missiles and artillery strikes, which themselves are susceptible to drone strikes....and the circle of life continues.

Soon, we're going to get drones that are AI operated with aerobatics and targeting that well exceed the reflex envelope of human control. Then we'll have AI operated interceptor drones that are smaller and faster to counter the larger munitions bearing drones. Then, to counter it, we'll start developing drones that are AI and networked so that the drones fight and strategize in swarms...and then it'll be swarms of drones fighting other swarms of drones , all AI controlled.

Eventually, we'll have to do a technological evolution such that others can't easily follow--orbital attack platforms with kinetic ballistic strikes. Then AI controlled hyper-speed space missiles to fight the orbital platforms. Then we keep pushing out further into space to maintain a defensive area until we're at the point where we're fighting space stations and ships at relativistic speeds.

(I read a lot of sci-fi.)

All of that leads to Skynet and the eradication of humanity, lol.

quote:

Originally posted by SIG4EVA:

quote:

Originally posted by Aeteocles:
Every military asset as developed to exploit a weakness, and itself has weaknesses that are susceptible to being countered. There is no ultimate weapon that can defeat every other technology.

Drones are here. They work great on tanks and personnel, probably ships and the like. What they don't work great on are fighters and bombers with guided missiles targeting their command vehicles/structures. So, those structures and command vehicles need anti-aircraft and radar batteries. And those are susceptible to cruise missiles and artillery strikes, which themselves are susceptible to drone strikes....and the circle of life continues.

Soon, we're going to get drones that are AI operated with aerobatics and targeting that well exceed the reflex envelope of human control. Then we'll have AI operated interceptor drones that are smaller and faster to counter the larger munitions bearing drones. Then, to counter it, we'll start developing drones that are AI and networked so that the drones fight and strategize in swarms...and then it'll be swarms of drones fighting other swarms of drones , all AI controlled.

Eventually, we'll have to do a technological evolution such that others can't easily follow--orbital attack platforms with kinetic ballistic strikes. Then AI controlled hyper-speed space missiles to fight the orbital platforms. Then we keep pushing out further into space to maintain a defensive area until we're at the point where we're fighting space stations and ships at relativistic speeds.

(I read a lot of sci-fi.)

All of that leads to Skynet and the eradication of humanity, lol.

or the WOPR,

Shall we play a game?

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:

If you look at what a fight is being envisioned between US & China....it's going to be fast and very violent. Many ships will be sunk, lots of missiles will be launched and lots of airplanes will be shot down. There's going to be very little ground fighting as the battle space will span oceans and bodies of water. Electronic warfare will play an equal role to combatant units, and logistics will be more important to the US-side than the Chinese-side as they're pretty much will be the home team; ships rapidly refilling their magazines will be paramount.

This reminds me of The Kidd Incident, a blog/online book by Alex Jauch published a couple of years back. He envisioned a very similar scenario where a minor naval face-off escalates into a war between the U.S. and China.

The Kidd Incident

The German Gepard even though being 40+years old has been performing above expectation. The new Mantis is an improvement on this idea and much more versatile, this can be mounted on just about anything. Not sure what drones are going to do to counter except swarm.

quote:

Originally posted by CoolRich59:

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:

If you look at what a fight is being envisioned between US & China....it's going to be fast and very violent. Many ships will be sunk, lots of missiles will be launched and lots of airplanes will be shot down. There's going to be very little ground fighting as the battle space will span oceans and bodies of water. Electronic warfare will play an equal role to combatant units, and logistics will be more important to the US-side than the Chinese-side as they're pretty much will be the home team; ships rapidly refilling their magazines will be paramount.

This reminds me of The Kidd Incident, a blog/online book by Alex Jauch published a couple of years back. He envisioned a very similar scenario where a minor naval face-off escalates into a war between the U.S. and China.

The Kidd Incident

This incident is staring us in the face as we see how things are playing out between China and the Philippines. At some point, the Filipinos are going to get tired of getting pushed around, going to tire of the US telling them to be cool and seeing their people hurt, at some point, a boat captain or a member of the crew is going to go off...and that could do it.

As for scenarios, most of the wargaming over the last 10-years, has resulted in such an outcome. Sure certain aspects will be slow-rolled or, pulled back but, there's a new world power, who is not very familiar with receiving political & diplomatic push-back and the US & allies who are in someways trying to minimize the bad news: this new player is building their kinetic ability rapidly, they have presence EVERYWHERE in the region and they view the world on their terms only.

If you want a decent visualization of what Force on Force with Russia and China could look like, Check out James Rosone's Battlefield Ukraine, it was published in 2017, and is the first book in his Red Storm Series. Rosone was military Intel and does a good job with systems and locations. He includes Cyber, Espionage, attack on Infrastructure, etc. He is light on the drones, but he published before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

wishfull t, M48A3

quote:

Originally posted by fischtown7:


The German Gepard even though being 40+years old has been performing above expectation.

I was in a US Army Air Defense battalion (4-3 ADA) in Germany in the 90's and our partnership Bundeswehr unit PzFlakBtl 12 (Armored Anti Aircraft Battalion 12) had the Gepard. REALLY impressive.

When doing live fire over the Baltic, they would sometimes cut the cable towing the BAT (Ballistic Aerial Target) that's how much fire that thing would be putting into the sky.

quote:

Originally posted by rock185:
wishfull t, M48A3

Thanks.

Me too for about a military minute in RVN, then to an ONTOS (M50) platoon for the bulk of my tour. A very different cat.

Speaking of drones, so we now have drones shooting down other drones?

This was on Task & Purpose:

Soldier earns ‘Ace of Syria’ nickname after downing 6 drones

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
Speaking of drones, so we now have drones shooting down other drones?

This was on Task & Purpose:

Soldier earns ‘Ace of Syria’ nickname after downing 6 drones

Well done Spc. Green!

Bestowing the title Ace is pretty sacrosanct within the fighter & aviation community, Ward Carroll recently did an episode trying to make-sense of how its used and some ideas on how it can be defined since drone usage is only going to increase on the battlefield. Keep in mind surface and subsurface maritime drone weapons continue to play a role, as a significant chunk of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been taken off the chessboard due to remote weapons tech.

There's a lot the DoD isn't making public about what anti-drone defenses are being employed, for good reason since we're at a point where the warfare pendulum-swing is over on the offensive side of the arena. There's quite a bit of capability being pushed out to deploying units, if you're looking for action, sign-up for an air defense unit as they've been the most in-demand and deployed over the last 10-years.

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:


There's a lot the DoD isn't making public about what anti-drone defenses are being employed, for good reason since we're at a point where the pendulum-swing of warfare is over on the offensive side of the arena. There's quite a bit of capability being pushed out to deploying units, if you're looking for action, sign-up for an air defense unit as they've been the most in-demand and deployed over the last 10-years.

Read breaking defense, most of the Army's new anti-drone tech pops up there as we are developing it jointly with Allies and Industry. The national level assets are being held close to the vest per say, but the tactical ones are largely open source. They are trying to make anti-drone capabilities available to municipalities and large venues. The idea of a terrorist drone swarm or chem/bio attack via commercial spreader drone are a visualized threat. We are also heavily leveraging industry and non-traditional sources for counter drone tech.

As for deployments, the heavy rotators that I have seen have been the ABCTs and CABs going to Europe, and the light BCTs going to CENTCOM. ADA assets have been going through CENTCOM and there are some enduring locations in multiple theaters but, not the same scale as the BCTs. We've stood up SHORAD in Europe to augment 10th AAMDC. The Stinger MTT has been touring the force as We've trained a number of MOSs to use MANPADs.

We are definitely rebuilding our ADA, especially SHORAD/M-SHORAD and Counter Drone as we shrank ADA for the GWOT.