I’m sitting in a hotel in Jerusalem watching Israeli TV (there’s a news channel in Englis) but mostly looking at Israeli newspapers and sources online, JPost.com and the left-leaning Haaretz.com.
As of 7:25 am Jerusalem time Likud, Netanyahu’s party, and Blue and White, Benny Gantz’s party, are dead even with 92% of votes counted.
Arab voters apparently went to the polls determined to beat Bibi.
Both Bibi and Gantz have vowed to form majority coalitions; Bibi with right-wing partners and Gantz with the left.
Labor, which ruled Israel for decades, has barely made it over the 3% threshold to be in the Knesset, is my understanding.
I’m new to watching Israeli politics, and the situation is very fluid right now.
Gantz, a former general, seems to have campaigned as a hard-liner (promising to deal with the Hamas issue once and for all), but by building a coalition with the left, threatens to overturn the strong defense posture Netanyahu has demonstrated.
Netanyahu has been PM for about 10 years this time, many are tired of him. There are “corruption” allegations but they are pretty pitiful according to a Messianic Jew friend who is leading our tour.
Trump and Bibi have built an outstanding relationship and that is threatened.
It’s pretty exciting that we happen to be in Israel right now.
Fortunately things are quiet here from the security standpoint.

quote:

It’s pretty exciting that we happen to be in Israel right now.
Fortunately things are quiet here from the security standpoint.

That's great! Enjoy the trip.
I hope Bibi pulls it off one more time.

Looks like much the same deadlock as after the last round five months ago. Out of 120 Knesset seats, Benny Gantz' centrist Blue and White won 33, Netanyahu's conservative Likud 31. In theory both could form a grand coalition with a majority in parliament, possibly including the secular right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu of former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman with another eight seats.

Both Netanyahu and Lieberman have called for this, but neither Lieberman nor Gantz want to go with Netanyahu due to the corruption charges pending against him. OTOH Netanyahu depends on staying in government to evade those charges, and get a bill exempting government members from such turned into law. He had Likud MPs sign an oath of fealty to him before the election to avoid being toppled by the party for the sake of a coalition government. He also hasn't said who should lead such a government, though the Likud wouldn't be the biggest partner in it.

The classic right-wing bloc of previous Likud-led governments included the national-religious Yamina alliance (seven seats) and ultra-orthodox Jewish parties like Shas (nine seats) and United Torah Judaism (eight seats). But Lieberman put an end to that when Yisrael Beiteinu, largely catering to secular Jewish fUSSR immigrants, quit over the controversial issue of conscription of ultra-orthodox Jews. The latter have been exempt, with many living on the public dime as life-long Torah students while often not even recognizing the modern state of Israel, since it wasn't founded by the Messiah.

That wasn't a problem with their small numbers when the state was created; but as highly religious groups tend to do, they've bred faster than seculars, which are increasingly alienated not only by their exemptions and benefits, but also them trying to push their religious positions on women, the sabbath etc. on the rest of society. Lieberman left the government when Netanyahu refused to follow a ruling by the Israeli supreme court upholding ultra-orthodox consciption because he needed the religious parties for his majority. Yisrael Beiteinu has also ruled out joining any further coalition including those parties.

There is no majority in sight for Gantz on the Left, either. The Joint List of Arab parties (13 seats), long-time government Labour party (now diminished to six seats) and liberal leftist Democratic Union (five seats) just don't have the numbers for that. So either Netanyahu gets out of the way, or there will probably be yet another election within half a year.

Thanks, BansheeOne, for all that.
I don’t follow our own politics all that closely, much less Israel’s, but being drawn into reading about this a little makes it clear that even people whose very existence is threatened by outside forces cannot necessarily act in their own best interests. My favorite aspect of this is how some men can avoid contributing to the common defense while living on the dole in a country whose existence they reject—all on religious grounds. Talk about an Alice in Wonderland situation. I suppose I shouldn’t feel so bad about what’s going on here.

And once again I’m reminded of my impressions of parliamentary systems. Even when I was a kid and had no understanding of how they worked, I was bemused by the reports of how Italy was forming a new government nearly every week. Really? “Governing” what?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: sigfreund,

Italy and Israel are both famously volatile parliamentary democracies, driven a lot by leadership egos. Israeli politicians in particular tend to just establish a new party when their old one doesn't want to follow them, most famously Ariel Sharon when the Likud challenged him over the withdrawl from Gaza. He promptly stepped down, disbanded parliament, formed Kadima as his personal vehicle, but had his stroke before it entered the next Knesset as the leading party. Which later split after its then-head Tzipi Livni lost another leadership contest and formed Hatnua, based upon the infrastructure of Hetz, which itself originally split from the secular pro-market Shinui ...



Meanwhile the Likud gained one seat at the expense of United Torah Judaism after the results from six polling stations were exclude due to evidence of vote tampering. So merely a redistribution within the right-wing camp, but it brought the Likud within one seat of Blue-White at 32 vs. 33; and Netanyahu was first to be given the task of forming a government, since he has the most support in the Knesset. All the previous problems to reach a majority still apply though, after early talks between the Likud and Blue-White about a possible coalition failed for reasons noted before.

Here goes nothing.

quote:

Israel PM Netanyahu fails to form government ahead of deadline

21 October 2019

Israel's long-standing Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said he cannot form a government, handing the opportunity to his political rival.

Mr Netanyahu has been in power for the past decade, but he was unable to build a coalition with a majority after September's election ended in deadlock.

His rival Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party will now be invited to attempt to form a government.

Mr Netanyahu's attempts to bring Mr Gantz's party into government failed.

Announcing the decision to abandon his efforts, Mr Netanyahu stressed that he had tried repeatedly to form a majority coalition but had been rebuffed.

"I have made all efforts to bring Benny Gantz to the negotiating table, all efforts to form a broad national unity government, all efforts to prevent another election. Unfortunately, time after time, he simply refused," he said.

Israel's President, Reuven Rivlin, said he would give Mr Gantz 28 days to carry out the same negotiations.

Israeli Arab lawmakers pledged their backing, but Mr Gantz - who leads a centre-right alliance - remains more than a dozen seats short of the 61 seats he would need for a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

President Rivlin said he would try to avoid calling another election in a country that had already held two this year. If Mr Gantz also fails, parliament could put forward a third candidate in a final bid to avoid another poll.

September's poll saw Mr Netanyahu's Likud party win 32 seats and Mr Gantz's Blue and White party 33. The president initially selected Mr Netanyahu as the candidate with the best chance of successfully forming a coalition.

Reacting to Mr Netanyahu's message, Blue and White said: "The time for spin is over and it's now time for action."

Mr Rivlin has suggested the two main parties form a national unity government. That arrangement could see Mr Gantz as de facto prime minister, while Mr Netanyahu holds onto the position in name only.

Many in Israel believe a third election may be the only way to break the deadlock.

[...]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50132760