SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge Anyone Else Seeing Everything Happening And Getting An Uneasy Feeling: Stock Market Crash/Huge Correction?
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| Peace through superior firepower  |
For Glen Beck, the world has come to an end every day for the last fifteen years. I don't listen to all that "Get ready for a huge crash" stuff. How many times have we heard this? It seems to me that virtually all of this "THERE'S A HUGE MARKET CORRECTION COMING AND HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO DO RIGHT NOW!!!" shit is melodramatic shots in the dark, and it's supposed to make the predictor seem so very savvy, and it' supposed to give them clicks on youtube or wherever. | |||
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| Member |
Historically, do nothing, as that is plenty of time for a recovery. In fact, during the correction, pour as much additional money into diversified investments as you possibly can. Down markets are exciting opportunities for those with a decade or more left until retirement, after all, who doesn't like buying things on sale? If you get out, when do you get back in? The recovery may not be gradual, and you won't know ahead of time when it'll happen, so you will likely miss the huge gains. ------------- $ | |||
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PopeDaddy |
Yup. Especially true if the result of mid-term elections is a split D/R government. 0:01 | |||
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| Green grass and high tides  |
Not a good day today for markets. With inflation running wild. Interest rates headed up soon. Global uneasiness on many fronts. Conflicts, energy, supplies and production among others. Conventional wisdom would say rough waters ahead for markets and conditions in general. Of course it could be flowery farts, unicorns and rainbows ahead too. "Practice like you want to play in the game" | |||
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| Member |
It's going to be this way for the first half of this year, a yo-yo (one with a long string). Frankly, it could go into 3QTR this way. If this gives you an uneasy feeling, probably the the market isn't for you or, de-risk your 401k portfolio. Alternatively, quit looking at it with another 15-18 years to go. Lately, I've culled out some of my wishful thinking equities and put those positions into cash. If I was going to go to Cash, I should have done it on January 3rd but remain and intend to stay invested in my 401k, Roth and investment accounts. I did impulse buy one share of Costco stock today. .. I want to see what the market does this week and see what's on sale. | |||
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semi-reformed sailor |
If it turns into a complete flaming dumpster, I know I can eat my neighbors. We have years from now before we both retire…we’ll just ride it out "Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.” Robert A. Heinlein “You may beat me, but you will never win.” sigmonkey-2020 “A single round of buckshot to the torso almost always results in an immediate change of behavior.” Chris Baker | |||
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Knowing is Half the Battle |
I picked up the phone the other day and the guy that lives in Duckie's beach house next door said "blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel." I immediately bought all I could and shorted it also because I had no idea what that meant but since that guy gets lots of girls I figure he can't be wrong. | |||
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Facts are stubborn things |
Remember that most of the people that will give you free advice, don't actually have the education or experience needed to be experts. Proper portfolio diversification and rebalancing are necessary to maximize the positive impacts of market volatility. Generally, the stock market has a 10% pull back EVERY year. We did not have one in 2021. If you are really scared of market conditions, that is probably because you have not planned for how to handle your investments. Get professional advice. Do, Or do not. There is no try. | |||
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| Member |
I remember listening to a Dave Ramsey show and this woman was calling in with the same worries. Her and her husband had never invested and they had done a great job by saving 2 million dollars. When asked why they didn’t invest it was always the same answer thinking the sky is falling next week. You should have heard her voice when Dave told her how much they would have had if they would have been investing that money the last 30 years instead of buying CD’s and money markets. Remember for all the people that tell you the sky is falling there are just as many saying the Dow will be at 45,000 in 5 years. Inflation is terrible for the consumer but a lot of companies are making record profits because their products are selling at those higher “inflated” prices. | |||
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| Green grass and high tides |
for a lot of business' higher inflation means higher interest rates. Which means less incentive to borrow $ to invest and grow their business.. Which hurts business, which hurts profits, which hurts investors. Everything costs more, $ is worth less. Hurts every one. Worst inflation in 40 years. With this admin we are inching closer to runaway inflation every day. "Practice like you want to play in the game" | |||
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| If you see me running try to keep up  |
Yes, and I know a guy that lost most of his 401 in 2008. I believe he has since passed but he was too old to recover his losses. | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
Remember 2008? There was a BIG crash, triggered by Lehman and leveraged derivatives. Bush panicked. McCain panicked (he was a terrible candidate). Lots of people panicked. The people who cashed out largely did so near the bottom and didn't get back in... until the recovery was obvious to all. But by then it was substantially more expensive and they had already taken the loss. They would have been better off ignoring the whole thing. Sometimes burying your head in the sand is not a bad idea. ETA: mrvmax, I just saw your comment. The guy you know who "lost most of his 401 in 2008" is exactly who I'm talking about. If he had done nothing he would have been fine. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Fire begets Fire |
Ditto … dude had $3mm @ Lehman bros. Lives in poverty today, except for the grace of others. "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty." ~Robert A. Heinlein | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money |
Well... there's that. Diversify. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| Green grass and high tides |
Except he died. So there is that aspect. "Practice like you want to play in the game" | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
How long did it take for investments to recover following the 2008 recession? I know we recovered everything and gained. Then again: We've never had more than 10-15% invested in high-yield investments. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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His Royal Hiney |
I was one of those crunched in 2008 by the stock market and the housing market. I was so despondent back then I gave my wife the responsibility of overseeing our investments since I surely sucked even with my MBA. Fortunately, we recovered. But you bring up the chink in the armor of the view of staying in the stock market since it has always eventually recovered and continued to increase. It's a minor setback if you're still young and working and the market tanks; it's another thing if you're old, don't care to or unable to go back to work and the market tanks and you still have a few years left to live. "It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946. | |||
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Fighting the good fight |
Which is why many financial advisors recommend the concept of a "glide path", where your retirement investments become more conservative the closer you get to retirement. This means less exposure to the volatility of the stock market when you're running out of time to bounce back from a crash/correction. An investment allocation that works for a 30 year old won't look the same as what's best for a 55 year old. For example, this example of a glide path starts out with 90% stocks and 10% bonds when you still have decades to retirement, and then gradually transitions over until it reaches only 30% stocks during retirement:  | |||
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| Fire begets Fire |
While traditionally very true… If I had followed that guidance I would’ve missed out on nearly 150% returns in the last 3+ yrs. And bonds? With the Fed raising rates … we’ll, not for me ATM. "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty." ~Robert A. Heinlein | |||
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| Fighting the good fight |
That's just an example of a simple, generalized glide path. Specific economic conditions and personal retirement plans will require alteration to suit each individual. For example, I'm set to have a very solid pension. So I won't be as reliant on retirement savings/investments as the average retiree. This means that I personally could afford more of a risk and greater stock exposure near/during retirement than someone whose investments represent the entirety of their retirement funds and who would end up in the poorhouse from a dramatic stock correction. | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge Anyone Else Seeing Everything Happening And Getting An Uneasy Feeling: Stock Market Crash/Huge Correction?
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