'so goes demography, so goes destiny'.

I realize that many find this a mundane topic, but I do find demography interesting and, while not only the U.S. but the global population is still increasing, it is projected to peak and then decline in the next 20-40 years.

Just as when the narrative was once global over-population and the expected problems that came with that scenario, there are societal problems that come with a declining population as well.

[note: the study is hyperlinked at the story website]

US birth rate hits 35-year low

BY REID WILSON - 05/20/20 11:06 AM EDT

The number of children born in the United States has hit its lowest level in 35 years, according to new federal data, as demographers worry that a baby bust that emerged after the Great Recession is becoming permanent.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a report Wednesday that 3.7 million children were born in the U.S. last year, down 1 percent from 2018 and the lowest total number of births since 1985.

Birth rates dropped among women of virtually every age and race group, though they rose among women in their early 40s, the CDC found. Birth rates among teenagers dropped substantially, hitting record lows. The rate of teenagers giving birth has dropped by a whopping 60 percent since 2007, and by 73 percent since 1991.

Since the recession, the birth rate has risen year-over-year only once, in 2014. Now, demographers tracking the declining birth rate say the trend is beginning to look like a longer-term pattern.

"The fact that births and fertility continued to decline in 2019 despite the booming economy suggests that this is a permanent shift to a lower fertility regime in the U.S.," said Cheryl Russell, a demographer and contributing editor to the journal American Demographics.

Studies have shown the overall decline in birth rates is being driven by steep drops among Hispanic women and women who do not belong to religious organizations. A 2018 study by the demographer Alicia Munnell at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College showed the rising number of women who attain college degrees and a shrinking wage gap between women and men are contributing factors, too.

The decline in birth rates is widespread among American women of every racial group. There were fewer births in 2019 among white women, black women, Native Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanic women than in 2018, the CDC data shows.

Now, demographers say the birth rate is likely to plunge even more in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic recession accompanying it. Birth rates have historically fallen in times of economic hardship, the data shows.

"Although some have predicted a coronavirus baby boom in 2021, that seems unlikely," Russell said. "It’s more likely that young women will delay becoming pregnant during this time of uncertainty, so we could see a bigger drop in births and fertility rates in 2021."

I was surprised they expect birthrates would drop during the pandemic. Human nature being what it is, locked up at home, not much going on TV is awfull: Time to kill, looking for things to do. I was expecting a baby boom to start january

I suspect it will go up in a few (6-9 months)... unfortunately....

Personally, I think reducing the population of the entire planet is a good goal....

I don’t place much faith in “experts” predictions anymore. We very well may see a post Coronavirus a baby boom.

quote:

Originally posted by Scott in NCal:
I was surprised they expect birthrates would drop during the pandemic. Human nature being what it is, locked up at home, not much going on TV is awfull: Time to kill, looking for things to do. I was expecting a baby boom to start january

There are two schools of thought on whether this pandemic will cause a baby boom and what you suggest may be what happens.

However, although not mentioned in this particular article, the declining birth rate has been a trend for years, not just here in the U.S.but in most places throughout the world...and across all demographics. I haven't checked recently, but as of a few years ago, when birth rates were broken down by religion, Muslims had the largest number of births, but even in this demographic their birth rate was falling.

Although some believe as you do and that all this "shelter in place" home time will result in a baby boom, others believe the prevailing trend of decreasing birth rates will continue, or accelerate through the pandemic.

Unfortunately, people are both panicked and angry right now, not a great recipe for making babies, and with an uncertain future due to both the pandemic itself as well as the response to it, people aren't as likely to feel comfortable enough to buck the current decreasing birth rate trend. Although it wouldn't surprise me if there are some mini baby booms in pockets around the U.S., especially from early in the pandemic when the Shelter-in-Place order was first issued.

In a separate story I've read about a spike in divorce filings. In some cases relationships were already rocky, and all the constant home time only made it worse.

The longer this pandemic continues and/ or the longer fear and uncertainty are in the minds of people the less likely they are to decide to have a baby.

quote:

Originally posted by Blume9mm:
I suspect it will go up in a few (6-9 months)... unfortunately....

Personally, I think reducing the population of the entire planet is a good goal....

IF the pandemic and shut downs are a distant memory and there is a return to normal life, you may be right...but birth rates had been decreasing for years before the pandemic, so why do you think that decades-long trend would reverse itself in 6-9 months?

It wouldn't bother me personally and I wouldn't mind seeing fewer people...but as I mentioned in the OP, a decreasing birth rate comes with its own set of problems.

Fewer workers means less tax dollars and fewer tax payers to shoulder (spread) the total burden of current and future debt. Fewer workers means a smaller work force, which equates to less productivity and GDP. Less people leaves a smaller 'buffer' should any future catastrophes occur to the human population...to say nothing of the fact that among the many demographics in play, the ones with the highest of the decreasing birth rates will hold sway when it comes to elections and who is actually in power. You better hope that demographic is one that you happen to agree with and can get along with.

quote:

Originally posted by stickman428:
I don’t place much faith in “experts” predictions anymore. We very well may see a post Coronavirus a baby boom.

Well I don't blame you for distrusting "experts", at least many of them...but this isn't some newfangled prediction, but a continuing decades long trend born out by actual recorded easily accessible public data.

quote:

Originally posted by Scott in NCal:
I was surprised they expect birthrates would drop during the pandemic. Human nature being what it is, locked up at home, not much going on TV is awfull: Time to kill, looking for things to do. I was expecting a baby boom to start january

Exactly!
My older son called last week to let us know that they are expecting their first child!
We are extatic!

Well we are going to need more taxpayers and less entitled people to pay off the gazillion dollar debt we most likely are going to have.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:

quote:

Originally posted by Scott in NCal:
I was surprised they expect birthrates would drop during the pandemic. Human nature being what it is, locked up at home, not much going on TV is awfull: Time to kill, looking for things to do. I was expecting a baby boom to start january

Exactly!
My older son called last week to let us know that they are expecting their first child!
We are extatic!

Congratulations Grandpa, is this your first grandchild ?

I get it that some , many actually will not be in the mood, and birthrates are declining.

However in the past similar , although much less deastic society shutdowns such as big storms, power grid failures have been followed by baby booms.

This is not impacting everyone the same.
Hit hard are people of the right ages, 20s and 30s . Students, resturant industries ect.
Many of them getting unemployment , plus any
other stimulus money. I kinda doubt they are maintaining safe social distancing when they are locked up at home. I doubt anyone trying to get pregnant will stop trying. For the people doing it for sport some are going to make a shot that gets past the goalie.
But that happens anyway. Will the increase in recreational players more than make up fpr the ones lost to lack of interest.
I dont know, I guess we will find out.
One day we will get a score card about how we handeled this. I wonder if we are causing more deaths (suicides, alcohol use, failure to get screened or treated for disease ect) than we save from the China Virus.

apparently some people took 'social distancing' literally...

It's pretty much as simple as Millennials not having kids at the same rate as previous generations.

quote:

Originally posted by bigwagon:
It's pretty much as simple as Millennials not having kids at the same rate as previous generations.

It's easy to see why.

Confused gender roles.
Fear of false rape or assault accusation surrounding courting a female.
Pornography use contributing to a decreased interest in putting the effort into sexual relationships with actual females.
A countrywide drop in testosterone levels.

We have three sons. One is 21 and the other two are 19. All are Eagle Scouts and have earned all 138 Merit Badges. So needless to say they are great sons.

All that being said If I had it all to do over I would have never gotten married and especially had kids. This world is a MESS and getting worse. There is no way I would ever want to subject great kids to the crap that is coming their way.

This millennial has four kids. I’m doing my part.

Well, the OP is a timely post considering the news my wife just gave me this morning...

Much like global temperatures, these kinds of things increase and decrease over large spans of time. It’s a nonissue imo. At one point the birth rate had people saying the world would be overpopulated and we wouldn’t be able to feed everyone. Now it’s too low and we’re going extinct. Ebb and flow.

And congrats Blaze!

Another job 'Americans won't do'. The dims will say that's why we need illegals.

Give it 9 months. I'm betting there will be a spike from all the corona everyone is currently drinking.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, the OP is a timely post considering the news my wife just gave me this morning...

Oh boy. This isn’t your first though is it?