A long list of variables will determine if 2022 is more of a freeway pileup or Krakatoa.

Even Democratic strategists now admit the midterms will be disastrous for their party. “It’s going to be a terrible cycle for Democrats,” Doug Sosnik, one of the party’s best grand strategists, recently told the New York Times. The question is how big the calamity will be. A freeway pileup? Category 5 hurricane? Or Krakatoa with all the attendant consequences?

We can’t know for sure—the list of variables and potential influences is too long—but we can speculate.



Will Congress pass some version of Build Back Better using budget reconciliation? How about any other major initiatives? If so, will they affect public opinion? My view is no BBB iteration is likely to pass, but more military aid to Ukraine probably will. So will something on China, a bill funding various Covid-related purposes, some appropriations for the coming year (but not a budget) and odds and ends, but nothing that moves the needle politically.

Does the war in Ukraine create a rally-round-the-flag effect for the president’s party like John F. Kennedy got after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? The proximity of its resolution to the midterms allowed JFK’s Democrats to hold their House losses to four seats and gain four in the Senate. There’s been no sign of this happening for President Biden so far, and I’m doubtful it will.



Does inflation decline appreciably? Or will wages rise faster than prices? Either would soften the electoral blow for Democrats. I’m not an economist but I can’t see how inflation could fall dramatically by November. Mr. Biden spent too much on his American Rescue Plan and the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve waited too long to act, as if inflation would dissipate on its own.

Will the economy be slowing or booming by the midterms? I say almost surely it’ll be slowing as the Fed finally starts trying to wring this not-so-transitory inflation out of the system.

Democrats believe that if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, it will ignite a surge in Democratic turnout. Maybe. But what if the court instead allows states to ban abortion only after 15 weeks? This might not cause the stir Democrats need. A recent survey by this paper found that 48% of voters support a 15-week abortion ban while 44% oppose it, not exactly a big winner for Democrats.

Democrats are right to be looking for turnout drivers. There’s a distinct lack of enthusiasm among young voters. This seems to be the reason for progressives’ demands that Mr. Biden unilaterally cancel all or most outstanding student-loan debt. But there are three problems. An executive order would face a certain court challenge. Not every young person would welcome it, especially those who’ve repaid their loans or didn’t incur any to begin with. And there’d be a 2010 tea-party-style reaction to such a bailout that could more than wipe out any gains for Democrats among grateful college debtors.

Could the Democratic fundraising edge—especially in Senate races—overcome this enthusiasm gap and the GOP advantages on the generic ballot? Cold hard cash could be dispositive in close races, but not if Republicans have enough money to be competitive. He who spends most doesn’t automatically win. Ask Sarah Gideon, Jaime Harrison and Amy McGrath. All outspent GOP incumbents in their 2020 Senate races but lost.

Here’s another scenario: Independents will find the administration’s election message of “jobs and results”—shots in the arms, a recovering jobs market, the bipartisan infrastructure bill—more appealing than the Republican focus on inflation, immigration, crime and cultural issues. This seems possible but unlikely. It was the previous Oval Office occupant who delivered the vaccines in record time, the job market is healing itself as the pandemic fades (slowly too), and there aren’t shovel-ready projects. Didn’t Mr. Biden learn from the unpopularity of the 2009 stimulus?

Democrats will try to turn the campaign into a referendum on Donald Trump, attempting to peel off some of the 74% of independents and 37% of Republicans in last December’s Washington Post poll who say there’s “no solid evidence” that “there was widespread voter fraud” in 2020.

Making Mr. Trump the center of electoral attention requires his cooperation. That could happen. The former president seems addicted to the adulation he receives at his rallies. But his domination of the political scene miniaturizes candidates he’s trying to advance, albeit perhaps temporarily. Most of them will recognize the danger of featuring him in their campaigns and politely steer clear.

While some of these scenarios may happen in some form, there’s little chance they’ll add up to a material improvement in the Democratic Party’s position this fall. When Democratic strategists go on the record acknowledging how bad the midterm prospects are for their party, you can safely assume they face a shellacking. The recriminations and finger-pointing have already begun.

Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

Citation/link should be in the OP, IMO.

The biggest fear all of us should have for November is the GOP's ability to turn a win into a loss. Offering up voters a group of morons and/or Dem-lite candidates could snatch a loss from the jaws of victory in many of these races. And what is the GOP loudly and definitively offering as policy positions right now? all they've doing is quietly sitting the sidelines and hoping voters will pick them over the people who have completely failed so far. Not exactly a confidence builder for the people they want to turn out and vote for them.

Correct sorry. Its Karl Rove
https://www.wsj.com/articles/k...rending_now_opn_pos2

by any rational measure, the democrats should lose and lose big

however, never underestimate the depths to which the democrats will sink to rig elections - after all, they did it in 2020 and did so with impunity

I suspect this will simply embolden them to do even more this election cycle

after all, who was held accountable, who was prosecuted, who is wearing orange at the grey bar motel

republicans don't seem to be terribly well organized either to take advantage of the weakness

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
The biggest fear all of us should have for November is the GOP's ability to turn a win into a loss. Offering up voters a group of morons and/or Dem-lite candidates could snatch a loss from the jaws of victory in many of these races. And what is the GOP loudly and definitively offering as policy positions right now? all they've doing is quietly sitting the sidelines and hoping voters will pick them over the people who have completely failed so far. Not exactly a confidence builder for the people they want to turn out and vote for them.

This sentiment is my main worry too. Polling is similar to the 2010 wipe out. 50 some seat pick up by the GOP. I think the Democrats are going to beat GOP candidates over the head with Jan. 6th footage, and I think it will do damage. GOP should counter with Afghanistan leaving Americans behind in their ads. Midterms are usually bad for the party in power if turnout is low. Polls indicate turnout will be up for a midterm election cycle. I think the GOP will pick up 15 to 20 seats in the House, and two maybe three in the Senate.

I agree with big deal.
I really don’t like all this counting of chickens before they have hatched!

Won’t change anything in California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut, New York, Hawaii, New Jersey etc. etc. ad infinitum

They’ll start impeachment on Joe for Hunter

They will stall major spending bills from the dimmerwits

I hope they get all those Americans out of solitary confinement who have yet to have a trial despite nearly 2 years passing.

Joemala will still have his pen and a phone for EOs.

Doesn't really matter, in the long run, if the Republicans take control of the House or Senate. It matters in terms of the House controlling the checkbook and having the ability to hold impeachment or investigative hearings if warranted and on the Senate side, having a much greater voice on any SCOTUS nominations, although Repubs typically confirm who a Dem president nominates.

My view is guided by recent recent history and if the Republicans take control of the WH in 2024, they will do jack shit.

In 2016 the Republicans controlled the WH, House and Senate and managed to lose control of the House only two years later which effectively neutered Trump once they started on impeachment. In the two years where there was unanimous control, the Republicans failed to deliver legislation that made a difference. They demonstrated an ineptitude that they show no signs of changing.

Right now they are campaigning on the dysfunction of the WH on a variety of issues have have threatened to hold hearings on many things. That's all fine and dandy but on substance they won't be as bitchy as Pelosi was towards Trump and quite frankly the next Speaker should be but despite who runs what, the swamp is everywhere. The swamp lived through the Trump administration and it's still around. Winning the House, Senate and WH doesn't mean the swap is drained or even cleaned up.

California may be in for some small change. I just heard a pod interviewing a GOP candidate running for Controller. Don't know what that is or what they do, but this guy is impressive. Lanhee Chen, and the LA Times have endorsed him. When is the last time that's happened?

I've learned that making predictions about such things is folly.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Correct sorry. Its Karl Rove

Stopped reading when I saw the name. Same as Dick Morris.

It ain't over, till it's over.

Both parties are fractionated.

Dems have the centrists, the swamp, and the loony left.

GOP has the populists/pro-Trump and Anti-Trumpers, the swamp and RINOs.

It depends on who can get more of the bases out.
Yes, we should clean their clock.

Yes, Trump should have been reelected.

It seems to make no difference who votes and for what.
The only thing that really matters is WHO counts the votes.
The Dems are better at the vote counting.

Count not thy chickens. Vote and work for every vote you can get besides yours.

I mentioned it before, I'm hopping the advantage the GOP has might have peaked too early. There's still 5 months to the election and the Dems know how to manipulate things. The twitter buy out may curtail some of this, but I still worry about the October surprise. On the other hand if the Biden/hunter deal is further exposed it should be a slam-dunk.

Depends on who counts the votes.

Don't get cocky; make sure you remind everyone that DemoKKKrats alone are responsible for the ills and turmoil in our nation, not Putin or Big Oil or rocket-building billionaires (minus Bezos).

I personally think it will be historic. The bad news is the Republican party is pretty much neutered and can't be relied upon to enforce the will of the people.

Never count your chickies ...
One day at a time ...
Let's not get ahead of ourselves ...
In golf concentrate on the shot at hand ...
etc, etc, etc.... more cliché's.